Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2571 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2007 4:13 am Post subject: The Peak Oil Theory
The Energy Bulletin staff made the these comments about the following article:
One of the better articles criticizing peak oil theory, although I think most of its objections have been answered.
Interestingly, the article starts out by saying that the idea of peak oil is self-evident. Thus we we have passed into the last stage a truth reaching acceptance. According to a widely disseminated quote (sometimes attributed to Schopenhauer):
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second, it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
The Peak Oil Theory by Robert Mabro
Quote:
The statement that the production of crude oil, an exhaustible resource, will reach a peak will not be entirely a tautology if it also told us something about the production pattern over time; something that is not necessarily implied in the exhaustibility concept. The peak story tells us, indeed, that after rising over years, decades or centuries, production will enter a phase of decline. The peak could take different shapes however. It could appear as the apex of an acute angle, or stretch out over a long period in the form of a plateau, or emerge more than once in the shape of a saddle or as a chain of dunes.
One major reason for their propensity to bring forward the dreaded event seems to be an eschatological inclination. Consciously or sub-consciously they are inclined to predict the end of a world economy that was fuelled by cheap oil over several decades. They also want to catch the headlines. For these reasons they need to predict an early peak. To tell us, for example, that oil production will peak in 2030 and oil resources be fully exhausted by 2080 would have little impact. The prediction has to be about an imminent event.
Exhaustibility is not a problem if there is time available to develop substitutes, and for technological progress to proceed further and delay the peak outcome. There is no doubt that the adjustments to scarcer and scarcer (which means more and more expensive) oil will occur. The critical question, once again, is ‘when?’ Once again one should emphasise that time is of the essence. The gestation lags of R&D and energy investments are long, sometime very long indeed. And investors – be it private companies or public sector entities – are increasingly slow in their responses because the future is always perceived as uncertain.
The peak oil theory, as defined above, has a harmful impact because it focuses on the wrong problem and in doing so it shifts attention away from more vital issues.
There is no ‘physical’ problem in the long run. There are, however, investment problems on the transition path from the oil to the ‘other liquids’ era. The ride is likely to be bumpy. And what we need to worry about now, and seek solutions to, are the investment and technical progress issues. Governments of OECD countries and private energy companies are not yet addressing these problems, worrying instead about the imminence of peak oil (a falsely alarming issue) for the security of energy supplies (a grossly misunderstood concept) and climate change (the most important about which the most significant polluters are unwilling to tackle.)
Re-focusing the debate away from the peak oil paranoia and towards the need to invest in the production of liquid fuels at the right time will put us on the road to a solution.
energypublisher _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Jan 16, 2005 Posts: 292 Location: Delft, Netherlands
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2007 9:30 am Post subject: Re: The Peak Oil Theory
Re-focusing the debate away from the peak oil paranoia and towards the need to invest in the production of liquid fuels at the right time will put us on the road to a solution.
Well obviously.
The reason for my personal 'peak oil paranoia' is not the fact that peak oil will occur, but rather that it will remain impossible to predict with certainty when it will occur. Peak oil will be recognised only in hindsight. Therefore, it will be totally impossible to make the necessary investments for change in a timely manner.
In other words: we will have to adjust to the ramifications of Peak Oil during the very time when those ramifications are already upon us. And they might force us to enact solutions very different from the many options that we will have had pre-peak, due to the sharp decrease in surplus energy availability.
Post-peak government policy might very well involve increased international aggression and reduced civil liberties, instead of the support of expensive long-term sustainable development.
How is the state going to support long term investment when unemployment is at an all-time record high and rising? The voters will demand immediate support, creating a downward spiral into chaos and poverty, and eventually the rise of totalitarian neo-communist and/or -fascist regimes.
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 460 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2007 10:33 am Post subject: Re: The Peak Oil Theory
The key word in all of this is production. Peak Oil is a peak in production, the act of extracting oil from the ground. There's still plenty of oil. It is just not humanly possible to get to it. Geophysical contraints are placed on what we can get to and Hubbert's Peak takes over. All the investment in the world won't overcome Hubbert's Peak.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2007 10:51 am Post subject: Re: The Peak Oil Theory
If peak oil is a theory, it's on the level of the theory of gravity.
No serious claims have been made disputing peak oil per se... only when it will occur is in dispute.
The USGS & others also predict a production peak... just decades later than ASPO et al. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2007 12:39 pm Post subject: Re: The Peak Oil Theory
JohnDenver wrote:
Aaron wrote:
If peak oil is a theory, it's on the level of the theory of gravity.
No serious claims have been made disputing peak oil per se... only when it will occur is in dispute.
The likely effects are also in dispute.
Conceded.
Although a dispute about "how bad is bad?", isn't much of a debate. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2007 12:44 pm Post subject: Re: The Peak Oil Theory
Quote:
Re-focusing the debate
= Spin
So he is suggesting is that industry accept peak oil as a fact, while spinning those nasty implications out of the discussion. But that's kind of like accepting climate change while keeping all those nasty droughts out of the discussion.
If my brain fell out of my head and I believed this person...
"peak oil (a falsely alarming issue)"
+ "the security of energy supplies (a grossly misunderstood concept)"
+ "climate change (the most important about which the most significant" "polluters are unwilling to tackle.)"
------------------------------------------------------------------------
= Be calm, all is well!!
Quote:
will put us on the road to a solution.
Classic corporate happy ending. Yes, happy motoring this way! We just need to refocus!
I have to say, good find Graeme. It's amusing, but also it's insightful into how corporates will play down peak oil as it becomes undeniable.
Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2007 8:57 pm Post subject: Re: The Peak Oil Theory
Aaron wrote:
JohnDenver wrote:
Aaron wrote:
If peak oil is a theory, it's on the level of the theory of gravity.
No serious claims have been made disputing peak oil per se... only when it will occur is in dispute.
The likely effects are also in dispute.
Conceded.
Although a dispute about "how bad is bad?", isn't much of a debate.
It's not going to be bad. Aside from some minor lifestyle adjustments, the world will smoothly shift to alternatives. And the economy will be stimulated, not depressed, due to the huge amount of retrofitting and construction work. _________________ Peak Oil Debunked
Joined: Jan 16, 2005 Posts: 292 Location: Delft, Netherlands
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 7:05 am Post subject: Re: The Peak Oil Theory
JohnDenver wrote:
It's not going to be bad. Aside from some minor lifestyle adjustments, the world will smoothly shift to alternatives. And the economy will be stimulated, not depressed, due to the huge amount of retrofitting and construction work.
What you call a 'minor lifestyle adjustment' will appear as massive lay-offs to the workers servicing the 'current' lifestyle. My frivolous spending is someone else's bread and butter. If we all go back to spending on things we *need*, as opposed to spending on things we *like* then that's most of your average economic activity down the drain right there.
That's the whole problem of peak oil and reduced surplus energy in a nutshell. I don't understand your well-known complacence concerning this, although I'd like to.
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 8:47 am Post subject: Re: The Peak Oil Theory
Nano wrote:
JohnDenver wrote:
It's not going to be bad. Aside from some minor lifestyle adjustments, the world will smoothly shift to alternatives. And the economy will be stimulated, not depressed, due to the huge amount of retrofitting and construction work.
What you call a 'minor lifestyle adjustment' will appear as massive lay-offs to the workers servicing the 'current' lifestyle. My frivolous spending is someone else's bread and butter. If we all go back to spending on things we *need*, as opposed to spending on things we *like* then that's most of your average economic activity down the drain right there.
One day, I saw one of these electric cars driving down the street near my house in Osaka:
It was only about 1.2 meter tall, and I could have kicked it over with my foot. It actually made me laugh. But then it shot out quickly into the intersection. It was really fast and manuverable, and reminded me of a rat scurrying.
I also see people riding on electric bicycles/scooters all the time, 2 or 3 times a day. Maybe you have them where you are too.
What I'm saying is that, for the typical American, switching to vehicles like these would be a frightening lifestyle shift. But in reality, it's not that big of a deal. Electric vehicles are dorky, but they work quite well, and can be very useful and fun when you get past the mental block. Yes, they may not do everything, but they can still do a hell of a lot, and save you lots of money. And they're only going to get better.
So the firms in the conventional automobile business will have to adapt or die. But that's not a new thing. Old firms get challenged and overrun by more nimble start-ups. It's an old story. There will still be a thriving market for transport vehicles -- just vehicles of a different type. Vehicles that gradually evolve into smaller, lighter shapes, and more specialized niches, in order to run on expensive fuel or electricity.
The pessimists tend to think that the U.S. won't make this shift. But the U.S. doesn't have a choice. It's like the switch from analog to digital TV. After analog broadcasting stops, it's not like you have the choice to not switch. You have to, or you can't watch TV. Therefore, everyone will switch, and this will be very stimulative to the economy.
Similarly, when the "cheap oil broadcast" stops, and the "expensive oil broadcast" begins, people will buy new cars, retrofit their old ones, buy electric bicycles, etc. Not because they want to, but because they'll lose functionality if they don't. Therefore they will make the buy, and it will stimulate the economy.
It's going to be a huge bonanza for the next-generation car/EV/scooter industry. _________________ Peak Oil Debunked
Joined: Jul 12, 2005 Posts: 249 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 12:05 pm Post subject: Re: The Peak Oil Theory
Aaron wrote:
JohnDenver wrote:
Aaron wrote:
If peak oil is a theory, it's on the level of the theory of gravity.
No serious claims have been made disputing peak oil per se... only when it will occur is in dispute.
The likely effects are also in dispute.
Conceded.
Although a dispute about "how bad is bad?", isn't much of a debate.
The problem is that people like you have such pessimistic assumptions of what the possible consequenses of peak-oil might be, that there is no fair and balanced debate possible. How can you have a serious discussion with people about a highly relevant subject like peak-oil when they enter the debate with such nagative bias? Peak-oil as a theoretical concept can be discussed in an serious, objective, academic manner. The possible concequenses and outcomes of peakoil is just speculation and assumptions... _________________ "In the U.S., fears are so exaggerated and out of control that anxiety is the number-one mental health problem in the country.", Barry Glassner
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 12:59 pm Post subject: Re: The Peak Oil Theory
VinceG,
What the point to argue about the pessimistic viewpoint/peak oil theory now? Sorry, but we are in very deep S*** and beeing optimistic about PO is like saying 10 minutes before the Titanic sank :
"Everything is fine! Look! The lights are still on!"
We are supposed to act as a giant to save what can be saved, "we" meaning mankind, but instead we debate on the internet about a "theory" (nevertheless as strong as life leads to death) while our brilliant politics speak growth on mass media.
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 1:29 pm Post subject: Re: The Peak Oil Theory
Quote:
How can you have a serious discussion with people about a highly relevant subject like peak-oil when they enter the debate with such nagative bias?
You write stuff... I respond... & so forth.
Debate!
If we already agreed with each other, that's just a discussion; not a debate.
Quote:
It's not going to be bad. Aside from some minor lifestyle adjustments, the world will smoothly shift to alternatives. And the economy will be stimulated, not depressed, due to the huge amount of retrofitting and construction work.
Well ok then... sure hope you're right.
But that's a pretty generous assessment of the future considering humanity's tendency to fight about stuff don't ya think? _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
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