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Peakoil.com :: View topic - The end of cheap food (The Economist)
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The end of cheap food (The Economist)
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Andrew_S
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2007 8:51 pm    Post subject: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Quote:
The end of cheap food

Rising food prices are a threat to many; they also present the world with an enormous opportunity
<snip>
But the rise in prices is also the self-inflicted result of America's reckless ethanol subsidies. This year biofuels will take a third of America's (record) maize harvest. That affects food markets directly: fill up an SUV's fuel tank with ethanol and you have used enough maize to feed a person for a year. And it affects them indirectly, as farmers switch to maize from other crops. The 30m tonnes of extra maize going to ethanol this year amounts to half the fall in the world's overall grain stocks.

Dearer food has the capacity to do enormous good and enormous harm. It will hurt urban consumers, especially in poor countries, by increasing the price of what is already the most expensive item in their household budgets. It will benefit farmers and agricultural communities by increasing the rewards of their labour; in many poor rural places it will boost the most important source of jobs and economic growth.

Full article : economist.com
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Revi
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2007 9:13 pm    Post subject: Re: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I think that what we should do is employ whole families of peasants to pedal our cars. It's the same thing we are doing now. We are taking a family's food away to fuel our cars.

Every SUV driver should have to feed the people that are displaced by their fuel consumption, and drive them around.

Some of these SUV's are big enough so that a whole family could live comfortably back there. There would even be room for a little tortilla cooker too.
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celticoil
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2007 10:58 pm    Post subject: Re: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Our time (in the US) is coming, because, as they say, in the future food supplies will be produced locally. I'm 64 yo and remember when food became available in markets only seasonally because it was grown and shipped within this locale. Most of the big growers are gone now, but there are plenty still around with small farms growing produce for farmers' markets. They will expand, and you will see a lot more backyard gardens (we grow beans and such seasonally ourselves, for our own consumption; we used to can each year). You will probably see the return of backyard chicken coops.

The one big problem? Energy! We'll be back to pre-internal-combution-engine days when it comes to preparing the soil (plowing and fertilizing), and harvesting. It will be more work, but it can (and of necessity) will be done again. In my mother's time, the shipping of farm goods within our county was done by rail, and many of the tracks still crisscross this area.

Those who will suffer? People on non-arable land who live where water is not available year-around. No doubt, starvation worldwide will increase in the future, as will mass-migration. Prepare to meet your new neighbors!

I might note, however, that these huge SUVs aren't all that bad: they'll make great chicken coops...
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markcl
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2007 11:00 pm    Post subject: Re: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

As a farmer many inputs are justifyed by outputs, Very high fertilzer and seed and machinery can only be paid for by high selling prices for our grain, hog prices are very low because of high feed cost and it may limit pork in the store in the furture if hog farms are shut down. Most products will come into balance, but it may take some time
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heroineworshipper
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:18 am    Post subject: Re: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Still ethanol subsidies eh. Well ever since August when rates started falling and housing prices soared 20% here, people have been buying stuff like no tomorrow. That could have more to do with the $4 bread than ethanol.
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wisconsin_cur
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 8:30 am    Post subject: Re: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I gotta work more double shifts...

gotta buy that 10 acres next door, this spring if possible...

gotta pay that debt, by summer,..

keep running, keep running, keep running...
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Ludi
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 10:58 am    Post subject: Re: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

celticoil wrote:
We'll be back to pre-internal-combution-engine days when it comes to preparing the soil (plowing and fertilizing),


I'm hoping people will finally realize plowing is not necessary to grow food.
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celticoil
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 11:17 am    Post subject: Re: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Ludi wrote:
I'm hoping people will finally realize plowing is not necessary to grow food.


I could never make it work. However, I once knew an old guy who turned his entire vegie garden each year with a shovel.
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Ferretlover
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 12:48 pm    Post subject: Re: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

It has started at the bottom of the 'food chain' and will work its way up:
Food bank donations down sharply
Officials fear ‘donor fatigue’ in year plagued by disasters domestic, abroad
Just the beginning

Food bank donations fall short
Declining cash contributions keep directors scrambling
no help here

Food Bank Distributions Up, Donations Down
(CBS 42) AUSTIN Food distributions are up, though donations are down, according to the Capital Area Food Bank of Texas. The food bank reported a 25 percent increase in food distributions--the first time in three years.
"We’re giving food out faster than we can get it in," said Michael Guerra, CAFB Chief Operating Officer. "If donations were to stop today, all the food in our 60,000 square foot warehouse would be gone in about a month."
Guerra says Williamson County has seen a 42 percent increase and Travis County a 15 percent increase. …
time to repurpose that warehouse

Food Bank Donations Down, Need Up.
Lynchburg, VA - The Lynchburg Area Food Bank officials say they've never seen it this bad. Donations are down and the need is up. This year they have given out 200,000 more pounds of food than they did last year. …
getting worse

Drought, rising gas prices reducing food pantry donations
… Most of the 11 counties relying on the Greenville-based food bank have been under drought conditions since early summer, and Motteler says it has affected the supply of fruits, vegetables and produce. The food bank is down more than a million pounds in those products, he said. …
no rain, no food, no help

Food Bank Says Donations Down As Need Increases Officials Say Supplies At Historic Lows
MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Officials at the New Hampshire Food Bank said Tuesday they are in desperate need of money and food as donations are down and demand is near an all-time high. …
Historic lows? I think not...
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Loki
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 1:11 pm    Post subject: Re: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Why is it America's duty to feed the world? Why are we made to feel guilty about doing what we wish with our own resources? Is encouraging corn-based ethanol a rational public policy? Probably not. But do I give a Fark about the Third World's inability to feed its own population, which is growing exponentially despite the self-destruction of their agricultural base? Hell no.

It's our right to do as we wish with our own resources and it's not our job to lift every pathological nation out of the hole it has dug for itself. So stop with the white-man's burden guilt trip already.

And why are biofuels always singled out here? Did anyone miss this tidbit from the cited article (which is little more than a globalist "free trade" harangue):
Quote:
That is because “agflation” is underpinned by long-running changes in diet that accompany the growing wealth of emerging economies—the Chinese consumer who ate 20kg (44lb) of meat in 1985 will scoff over 50kg of the stuff this year. That in turn pushes up demand for grain: it takes 8kg of grain to produce one of beef.

The great majority of grain production is still wasted on luxury foods like beef. Yet never a peep about it here on PO.com. It's always with the ethanol demon. Oh, those poor Mexican peasants, unable to afford tortillas because of that evil evil American ethanol. Hey, I'm hungry, let's go have a triple Whopper with a side of spare ribs and deep-fried chicken wings....Rolling Eyes
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MrBill
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 3:46 am    Post subject: Re: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Loki, I might not have phrased it like you have, but in essence I agree with your sentiments. No one is bashing the Arabs for wanting more for their oil, which America must import to the tune of $40 billion per month. That is a direct wealth transfer from consuming to producing nations, so why should any agricultural exporter feel guilty about food becoming more expensive for the consumer if their costs of production have gone up as well?

And I think it goes without saying that domestic use will be satisfied first before any surplus is exported.

Food has been so cheap, for so long, that it has reduced our farmers to corporate welfare recipients! If wealthier Asians want to diversify their diet and eat more meat then it should translate into higher farm incomes to offset some of those imports of fuel. Let's look at both sides of the argument, eh?
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IslandCrow
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 7:53 am    Post subject: Re: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Loki wrote:
Why is it America's duty to feed the world?


No duty, but America has a duty to export something to help pay for all the oil and cheap goods from China.
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cube
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 3:03 am    Post subject: Re: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

When I become an old man I'm going to sit around the campfire and tell stories to all the young children about life before PO.

I'll say things like:
"When I was your age we had restaurants that were called *buffets* It was all-you-can-eat and you only paid a simple flat rate."

Everybody's eyes will light up and they'll say:
"Woah Grandpa Cube......food must of been really cheap back in the good old days!"
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MrBill
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 3:23 am    Post subject: Re: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Maybe we'll have fewer obese children and cases of adult onset diabetes from sedate lifestyles and unhealthy diets?

By the way, the web edition of The Economist seems to have more information than the print version, but it may depend on which copy you get?

Here is the link: The end of cheap food
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IslandCrow
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 3:34 am    Post subject: Re: The end of cheap food (The Economist) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

"fill up an SUV's fuel tank with ethanol and you have used enough maize to feed a person for a year." The Economist

I know this site has a place for member's quotes, but is there a place to collect other gems like this one? Actually in the hard copy report (which I am belatedly reading) the Economist says that this image come from the World Bank. I didn't find the World Bank source but I found this slightly more detailed version:

Quote:
Filling the 25-gallon tank of an SUV with pure ethanol requires over 450 pounds of corn -- which contains enough calories to feed one person for a year.
How Biofuels Could Starve the poor
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