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Peakoil.com :: View topic - The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting)
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The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting)
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When will one (or more) of the scenerios listed in the OP come true?
2008 (was going to include a breakdown for what season...)
8%
 8%  [ 7 ]
2009-2010 (...even for '09 alone, but limited by poll options)
13%
 13%  [ 11 ]
2011-2015 (was going to include more years specif but you know...)
44%
 44%  [ 36 ]
2016-2025 (... anyway, nothing else to bitch about, all in all...)
16%
 16%  [ 13 ]
After 2025 (...the site is great & everyone should appreciate it)
8%
 8%  [ 7 ]
Never or not in the next 100 or more years anyway
6%
 6%  [ 5 ]
None of the above, nuclear missiles (aliens, 2012, etc.) w/ kill us all instantly or some other crap
2%
 2%  [ 2 ]
Total Votes : 81

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Narz
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:02 am    Post subject: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

End of Life as We Know It I'll define as any (or many) of the following :

(1) Electric grid failures thruout the country lasting a week or more (non-natural disaster related)

(2) Unemployment up 100% or more thruout the country. Crime up 100% or more thruout the country over the previous year.

(3) Food interruptions frequent, often lasting a week or more. Lots of hoarding. Water interruptions frequent as well. Again, non-natural disaster related.

(4) The general populace scared, willing to accept curfews, rationing (fuel obviously but also food, potentially water), increasing restrictions on every aspect of our lives. Politicians, newscasters, religion, etc. come up w/ all sorts of explanations & scapegoats but increasingly people start to wonder if it really will "go back to normal".
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roccman
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:11 am    Post subject: Re: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Next Wednesday was not on this list...
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Narz
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:12 am    Post subject: Re: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

roccman wrote:
Next Wednesday was not on this list...

Next Wednesday is too soon Roccy. We can't have gone "a week or more" without power by next Wednesday. Wink
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Narz
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 4:30 am    Post subject: Re: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

12 voters so far. Talk to me. As they said in school (perhaps the best thing they told you in school) - explain your answer. Smile
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SpringCreekFarm
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 7:39 am    Post subject: Re: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I can see that, as of this writing, I'm in the majority who said after 2011. I base my answer on pure speculation, like everyone else. From what I've learned on this board, the plateau that we're riding on right now will have run it's course by then and after that all desperate measures will have been put in to full swing. That is truly when we'll see HUGE problems around the world and life as we know it will change forever. I'm not sure how to put it in any better words than that because to try and speculate further is like writing fiction.

There very well may be a nuclear exchange in the world that will just Fark us all and all my preparations might have been better spent playing music in the bars and trying to get laid like the good old days. Smile

We've had doomer threads come and go here and I"m ususally the one that refuses to buy into them because of my own, very fortunate situation. However, truth be told, I accept that I just my very well be in denial and I'll be one of the first to go. I don't know. Because I don't know, I'll still keep smiling and working away here.

If it's one thing this site has given me, it's the ability to accept my own fate and yet, strengthen my hope that I'll be able to pull my family through this.
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pedalling_faster
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:03 am    Post subject: Re: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

whoever started this thread probably still has a job & food & a place to stay.

we had a large EOLAWKI in 2001.

Iraq has been having an EOLAWKI from 2003-2007, or during the entire term of Bush41-Clinton-Bush43, depending on how you measure it. i helped a Kurdish IT guy in 1997, he had an EOLAWKI experience because he provided computer support for a "team of American film-makers". he ended up on Saddam's blacklist and they chose to airlift him out.

for the people who live in largely foreclosed neighborhoods, such as in Cleveland, they are having an EOLAWKI experience right now.

for much of the world's population, their entire lives have been EOLAWKI experiences.

better stop there.
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Last edited by pedalling_faster on Sun Dec 16, 2007 11:14 am; edited 1 time in total
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topcat
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 10:22 am    Post subject: Re: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Chose 09-10.

I am mostly worried about the credit/financial problems that are surfacing. What we are seeing could easily be the tip of the iceberg. When the ship hits the berg (SHTB) next year, it will head for davie jones's locker and make 09 unpleasant.
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Narz
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 11:34 am    Post subject: Re: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

pedalling_faster, yeah, I meant in the United States/Western Europe, the elite nations basically. I should have specified this (and usually do in these types of polls).
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Ayoob
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 1:18 pm    Post subject: Re: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

For a second I thought this was going to be The End Of Los Angeles As We Know It.

The correct term is TEOTWAKI, pronounced Tay Oh Twack Eee.
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Pixie
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 4:28 pm    Post subject: Re: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I put 2016 to 2025. Massive power outages are already part of life as we know it. We will adjust to expensive fuel for several years. OPEC and Russia, et. al. will continue pushing to maintain their production, and those of us in the First World will continue to buy their product for another decade at least. It will take a while, I believe, before production really nose dives, and we will not see any of these major disruptions until the system can not compensate anymore.
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TamaraC
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 5:26 pm    Post subject: Re: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I'm figuring roughly 2010 - 2012 depending on the rate of collapse of the ice sheets in Greenland and the Antarctic, as these events, along with forecasted drought in the Great Plains states will result in widespread food insecurity and possibly increased demand for oil to transport food.

I expect we'll be pretty deep into an "ordinary recession" by summer though, so my family's own TEOTWAWKI will probably hit around June or July, when the government contract he's working on ends and he's no longer indispensable.

We are already making arrangements with his parents (who have land) for the eventuality, paying down debts, and looking at employment in more stable circumstances. If I thought we had more time, I would enter a grad program in sustainable development out here in DC and study urban permaculture. (I'm good at standardized tests, so grad schools court me constantly to get their averages up.)

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in Maryland
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katkinkate
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 10:16 pm    Post subject: Re: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Every day sees 'the end of life as we know it' for someone. I actually picked 9-10 years. Not because I know anything specific, just because America is the core of the problem: economically, in energy use and politically, and I think TPTB in America would be trying to keep things going for another year at least. Until the next presidential election, so that when everything collapses around their ears, the next president (probably a democrat) will get all the blame, thus setting the scene for Republicans to take power again later when things have shaken out a bit and people know more about what the future will bring.
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Tyler_JC
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 11:22 pm    Post subject: Re: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I am highly skeptical of the people who believe in week long blackouts across the entire country by next year. Rolling Eyes

If you had made this poll in 2005, people would have assumed that $100 oil would mean economic depression and lights out for the entire planet.

It's incredible how adaptive people can be.

I vote after 2025.

However, crime could easily double within the next couple of years. Unemployment could easily hit 10% at the height of this coming recession.

But water shortages that aren't drought related? Curfews? Not for a while (if ever)
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KillTheHumans
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2007 12:05 am    Post subject: Re: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Tyler_JC wrote:
I am highly skeptical of the people who believe in week long blackouts across the entire country by next year. Rolling Eyes


What about the ones who thought it was supposed to be happening THIS summer?

Tyler_JC wrote:


If you had made this poll in 2005, people would have assumed that $100 oil would mean economic depression and lights out for the entire planet.


Go back in the PO archives...people were thinking that about $50 oil.....its amazing to go read the 3 year old stuff and discover how silly some of this gets sometimes. And thats BEFORE the real crazies starting playing "The Population Bomb" reruns.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2007 1:30 am    Post subject: Re: The "EOLAWKI". When? (read OP b4 voting) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

KillTheHumans wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
I am highly skeptical of the people who believe in week long blackouts across the entire country by next year. Rolling Eyes


What about the ones who thought it was supposed to be happening THIS summer?

Tyler_JC wrote:


If you had made this poll in 2005, people would have assumed that $100 oil would mean economic depression and lights out for the entire planet.


Go back in the PO archives...people were thinking that about $50 oil.....its amazing to go read the 3 year old stuff and discover how silly some of this gets sometimes. And thats BEFORE the real crazies starting playing "The Population Bomb" reruns.


It's going to be fun to go back to this thread in 2009 (assuming that this website still exists and that I still visit it).

I imagine that the same kinds of people will still be posting about imminent doom and the recession might give them some more news article to post about but overall, status quo...

And that's the whole point.

Life is always the status quo. Change is gradual.

American workers have lost ground over the past 30 years. Some argue the loss in real wages is as high as 20%.

That's roughly a .6% decline per year. Hardly noticeable within a short term memory.

That's what it could be like for oil. We will lose 4% of our oil a year and replace it with something more expensive. At the end of the oil game, we are spending three, four or even five times as much money on energy as a % of GDP and life has been dramatically changed.

But did anyone find the exact point of "the end of the world as we knew it?"

Did we have a TEOTWAWKI moment when we moved from an agricultural to an industrial economy?
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