Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Ah yes, now I remember. Getting people to grasp the concept of using our technical knowledge to create sustainability rather than using technological machines (with their inherent energy conversions) to achieve a techno-fix will be daunting. But the discussion has already started hasn't it? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
MonteQuest is on the same page. Its going to take 20 years at least before serious decline takes place. After the government goes bancrupt then millions will be on the lam. There are socialist mechanisms in place that will stave off elimination for a considerable time. Build the earth ship eco communities. get on it now if you can. However civil war 2 might break out sooner than later. But as is the environment is shot and getting worse. band aids dont cure AIDS.
I support Monte's reasoning and have to point out that we sometimes miss our own most important point: The peak is just that - a peak. There will be plenty of oil, almost. It would seem that the worst SHTF scenarios are envisioning a running-out.
Now, there are short term and long term periods to consider. Unless a magic bullet is found (which I think unlikely), the long term has to be a low energy future, with quite likely lower populations.
It's the getting there that's tricky. Does this imply a mass die off, or a century of dwindling? Could be either. Does this imlpy a social collapse and reemergence of social organization, or a working together and management within the political structure we have. Again could be either.
The only thing I will say is that we cannot know which way it will go.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 7002 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Mon Dec 13, 2004 1:09 pm Post subject:
I’ve long been a proponent of the “bounce to the bottom” theory. I think way before there is a constant yearly decline in oil extraction, we will experience over and over the exact scenario we are in today, and in fact have experienced over and over in the past - most recessions preceded by a sharp increase in oil price:
loose oil market/low price <leads to> expanding economy/increased demand <leads to> tight oil market/high oil prices <leads to> receeding economy/reduced demand <leads to> loose oil market/lower price – repeat.
At any rate, if PO turns out to be fact, it makes sense that at some point the peak extraction amounts during economic boom cycles will start to decline, yes, we’ll see the Peak in the rear view but the mirror will be viewing cycles of boom and bust; not years.
This, I think, is the problem with most, if not all, of the predictions made here and elsewhere of the PO date – we won’t continue extraction on a straight line of increase. The economy will at some point contract because of increasing oil price induced inflation, only to revive the cycle again as prices ease (see above). The result being not a straight line of increase but one of ups and downs as was the result of the previous political “shortages. The myriad factors affecting that cycle are so intertwined that I can’t see how anyone could forecast that progression.
Or (this just dawned on me) maybe the period between economic peaks progressively extends out so far that there is just never another peak. IOW, there is still oil in the ground but the traditional economy is so weakened it can’t revive enough to bump up against capacity. The current “Bubbles” in the US economy make for a BIG problem, perhaps The Second Great Depression could make the EIA’s prediction of Peak in 2030 turn out to be overly pessimistic, I’ll have to meditate on that further after I go turn the thermostat up, LOL.
American gluttony
Let’s not all forget that the reason most nations are worried about the falling dollar and all our other woes (aside, of course from the fact that many hold our notes) is that we ARE the world’s consumer – of everything. A weak dollar makes the goods they sell us much less affordable – a crash in the US IS a worldwide crash. So again, be careful what you wish for.
Food:
Will there be changes in our diets? Surely, but the US produces and imports such a huge quantity of food that it is unimaginable to me that that we will starve no matter the scenario. There are huge tracts of the worlds best cropland devoted to growing cut flowers, artichokes and garlic! Something like 12 MILLION bushels of corn (correct me if I’m wrong on the amount) is grown here and the vast majority is used to finish beef to attain the correct amount of WHITE fat marbling, which is how beef is graded here! God forbid that American’s have to eat beef with yellow fat –an indication of carotene BTW, like that produced from grass fed beef.
What the local market carries in 2104 is beyond me, but that it will be there is really the last thing I worry about.
Increasing efficiency and conservation
The thing about increasing efficiency like we did “back then”, is that back then there had never been a concentration on efficiency. The technologies and products were new and hence ADDED jobs and new markets: insulation, high performance glazing systems, efficient appliances, etc. I’m sure there is much more that could be done especially in the way of transportation, but many of the easy fixes have been made (just like the easy energy has been consumed). The result won’t be doing more with less energy; it will simply be doing with less energy.
And as for conservation in our consumption, conservation to me indicated preserving something of VALUE, how many gifts under your tree are really something of value and not just on somebody’s “I want cause I saw it on the tube” list?
So then the economy isn’t stimulated by the drive for efficiency and conservation; just the opposite, oil price induced inflation / job loss causes folks to have less disposable income and they just can’t afford to purchase or operate electric hair dryers/curlers/straighteners any more and simply quit buying them, thereby depressing the economy further (though I guess that particular example will happen sometime way down the road based on the experiences in my household, LOL).
Of course there are the unknowables: perhaps we NEVER make another huge oil discovery, or maybe Gahwar, or another, or several of the Kings suddenly collapses, or even SA itself, or *Gasp* many of the booked reserves are simply window dressing. But that is even more speculation than everything preceding.
So on balance, discounting all the possible Peak Oil “unknowables” and of course Planet X, Avian flu and Chem-trails, I hold out for a fairly long term scenario with most folks in the dark (figuratively speaking) for a long while as they alternately bemoan the poor state of the economy and then run up the credit cards when they get their jobs back.
Of course I’m no expert.
(Wow, what a treatise!) _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Indeed the transformation could be a huge jobcreator. Because machinepowered labour will become more expensive compared to human labour due to high energy prices. And both qualified (engineers) and unqualified (building workers) people will be in high demand due to changes which are not optional but necessary.
Joined: Apr 17, 2004 Posts: 984 Location: Tulsa, Ok
Posted: Mon Dec 13, 2004 1:47 pm Post subject: slow decline or rapid
I believe that during the over all decline of the world petroleum. That different parts of the world will suffer the effects at different rates and at different magnitudes. Political, social, geographical and economic reasons will dictate how this all plays out.
I am not bashing the US. I believe that because our economy is on a tight rope and our domestic oil is declining and politically we are unpopular in much of the world (Middle East?). That we are in a really bad position.
A 2 million barrel a day sudden decline can be dealt with. Yes it would have strong effects and possibly good for us in the long run in that our people would suddenly get going on working to solve the future issues of energy.
The economic issues, social security and government debt, place the US in a bad economic situation. The strong economy backing that has been to the US advantage isn't going to be there. We do have a large economy and this plays in our favor. I don't feel it tips the scales back enough.
Then we have the pariah effect. Islamic peoples (perhaps not all but a very large number) have a dislike for the US. They don't like the fact we have supported Israel. Believing Israel would collapse without US backing. This is really a largely religious issue. As Monte believes the Imperialistic agreement side is valid as well. I simply add this in as another factor adding into the pariah effect. There seems to be much resentment built up against the US around the world.
These factors weigh against the US. These are where my concerns lie.
So one part of the world can have a rapid decline while the rest of the world has a much slower decline. With these factors I have laid out. I am very concerned about the US position for the future. In world timeline a 10 year decline is pretty rapid.
10 years would be after the crossover point between opec and non-opec countries. The terminal decline will be well underway and known to all. The reporting problems with middle-east countries will become very clear for all to see and will not be able to be able to be covered up any more.
So with peak occurring in 2005 adding 10 years. 2015 will be a very bad year. _________________ Peace out!
Joined: Nov 11, 2004 Posts: 978 Location: Heart of Canada's Oil Country
Posted: Mon Dec 13, 2004 4:03 pm Post subject:
We're all novices at using the crystal ball, but as I continue to digest PO, posts like these (monte, pops et al.) make the most sense to me. The scenario painted here also seems, anecdotally at least, to be more statisically probable. Add to that the ENORMOUS amount of waste in "modern" society, and the HUGE push that will be made back to coal and nuclear, and we'll be like a drunk who is on his way home and keeps getting up after falling over. The problem is that eventually the drunk passes out and if he's not careful, can crack his head open on the porcelain life saver. _________________ Do not underestimate the difficulties of surviving the transition of peak oil, nor the dangers of global warming. We must embrace nuclear energy and renewables.
This, I think, is the problem with most, if not all, of the predictions made here and elsewhere of the PO date – we won’t continue extraction on a straight line of increase. The economy will at some point contract because of increasing oil price induced inflation, only to revive the cycle again as prices ease (see above). The result being not a straight line of increase but one of ups and downs as was the result of the previous political “shortages. The myriad factors affecting that cycle are so intertwined that I can’t see how anyone could forecast that progression.
Good post, Pops! I agree mostly with your statement above with a few caveats: Population growth and emerging developed nations like China and India. With these huge populations, even marginal energy growth demand will cause a ramp up in extraction, much like it is doing now. And like oil prices, extraction will be a roller coaster...but always an upward trend. So many things to watch! _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
1) over the next 5 years you will see an ever deepening recession
2) sometime in the next ten years some seminal economic event (an announcement by Japan or China that they will no longer buy treausries perhaps) will trigger stock, bond and/or real estate market collapses which swiftly bring us into a Great Depression
3) 15 years from now we will approach the Crisis, a war in which the US will use every tool at it's disposal to crush it's scapegoated enemy. Nukes were used in the last war, they will most certainly not be kept on the shelf this time.
By 2025, it will all be over. PO will simply be the excuse for the next war.
Isn't this just what I said? However, my crystal ball for an exact timeline is in the shop. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Apr 17, 2004 Posts: 984 Location: Tulsa, Ok
Posted: Mon Dec 13, 2004 10:21 pm Post subject: Afraid?
I am not afraid. Concerned would be acurate. Your senerio is possible kochevnik but I don't think nuclear exchange will occur for just any reason.
Quote:
1) over the next 5 years you will see an ever deepening recession
2) sometime in the next ten years some seminal economic event (an announcement by Japan or China that they will no longer buy treausries perhaps) will trigger stock, bond and/or real estate market collapses which swiftly bring us into a Great Depression
Isn't completely unlike what has been written by others. Just worded differently.
Most all believe we are headed for The Really Great Depression. _________________ Peace out!
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