Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 5:29 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
My forecasts:
High - 137.67
Low - 69.64
Close - 115.54
Method: Average of all the predictions above, then discount 15% due to the known bullish bias on oil everybody has here.
The method has worked well in the past... Well, it didn't work in 2007, but 2008 is going to see the American economy crashing, the prices can't get too high... but then, the dollar will be falling at the same time...
No, I won't try to figure it out. I stick with my method. _________________ What are you doing about peak oil?
I am doing this
(click on the www button) v
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 6:58 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
.
Hight 167$
Low 89 $
closing 160$
Same pattern as this year , flattish to start with with a big kick toward the end
Opec is not dead and still has some juice , refining is a bottle neck but should sort itself , China will HAVE to let go of their demand ,they have been holding back but the dragon is hungry for more
the big unknown is the greenback and the present administration strange obsessions in foreign policies
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 8:35 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Quote:
A forecast made by Denmark-based Saxo Bank, chaos will take a grip on the world in 2008. Oil prices will skyrocket to 175 dollars per barrel, the Chinese market will collapse by 40 percent, whereas the U.S. will suffer a 25-percent setback. All this will happen because of the mortgage crisis in the USA which already slows down the U.S. economy.
Most of the industry's leading lights now are predicting the U.S. benchmark crude, as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, will average around $80 a barrel next year, up from $71.89 this year. The benchmark Friday closed at $93.31.
Extrapolating from forecasts underlying Saudi Arabia's own budget-revenue projections for next year, economists say Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, expects U.S. benchmark crude to average around $75 a barrel next year. Forecasters at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., who predict an average price of $84 a barrel, cite the market's own increasing opacity as one reason why prices will stay bullish.
Quote:
The best price predictors, the Roland Berger study found, have been the big oil-producing countries themselves. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, always gives itself a wide margin when computing anticipated revenue for its annual budget, which is almost 90% reliant on oil revenue. Wim van Acker, one of the study's authors, says the Saudi government routinely underestimates by 30% what they expect to bring in from oil revenue so as to cushion against the risk of running a budget deficit. Once you add in that cushion, the study found that the Saudi government has been off only 12% on average since 1999.
Goldman Sachs said it was raising its end-of-2007 WTI price forecast to $85/bbl from $72/bbl and was introducing a 2008 average WTI price forecast of $85/bbl with an end-of-2008 price target of $95/bbl following a modest dip around the middle of 2008.
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 9:23 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Quote:
Tom Kloza, chief analyst at the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), sees prices peaking between $3.50 and $3.75 in a spring price rally he calls "the closest thing to a certainty."
The price of oil
(WTI) could fall as low as $70 a barrel in the first half of 2008, but then
return to an upward trend, as soon as fears of a recession in the United
States dissipate.
The cure for high prices is more high prices," said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., in New York.
That doesn't mean oil will plummet — unless there's a severe recession, said Evans, who expects prices to hover near $70 a barrel. In the face of such forecasts, OPEC could decide to cut production, as it did last year, to keep prices from falling too low.
Most analysts have bumped up their estimate for 2008 to around $80 to $85 a barrel from the low $70s, reflecting a view that oil prices will rise but not by another 60 percent, like they did in 2007.
"I don't think too many people are talking about $150 oil, unless they're also stocking up on canned goods and ammunition," said Jeff Tjornehoj, a research analyst at the data and research firm Lipper.
John Kilduff, an energy analyst at MF Global in New York, said he expects crude prices to top $100 a barrel in the first quarter - perhaps peaking around $110 - then pull back to maybe $70 as the economy slows and speculative money retreats.
Still, he says investors are still pricing oil company stock as if oil costs $50 a barrel and sees room for those stocks to go up.
Goldman Sachs, one of the most active banks in the energy market, raised its price forecasts for 2008 by $10 on December 12, with average benchmark US prices now seen at $95.
The price could reach $105 by the end of 2008, it said. The CGES sees an average of about $90 in the first half of the year and Drollas said a spike to $100 was possible, above all if a cold northern hemisphere winter increased heating fuel demand.
Merrill Lynch believes that oil prices could spike further before Emerging Market governments move to reduce demand or OPEC moves to increase supply. Francisco Blanch, Merrill Lynch head of Commodities Research, points out that increased production and potentially slower growth should push prices below U.S. $70 a barrel by the final quarter of the year.
Merrill Lynch has raised its forecast for the benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude to US$82 per barrel next year and US$70 in 2009, from US$73 and US$60 respectively, and raised its long-term oil price forecast by US$10 to US$70 a barrel.
Joined: Mar 07, 2007 Posts: 281 Location: Holland, United Kingdom (of the seven Netherlands)
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 10:41 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
TheDude wrote:
High: $130
Low: $120
Close: $125
Hmm. That would mean $120 or higher at Januari 1st... You can still revise it, if it doesn't go there next week.
My own prediction:
I expect oil prices to go down a bit in real terms. The current price is leading to demand destruction (although at a slow pace) and more production should come online next year. I'm also one of the doomers who expects stagflation in the US (affecting worldwide growth).
The problem is: what will be the value of the dollar. I expect it to go down by another 20% next year.
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 3:35 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Yergin:
Quote:
"Although CERA expects the fundamental picture to become somewhat more relaxed during the next two years, Bullish market psychology is expected to keep prices in the $70 to $90 range in 2008."
Those who I have talked to, including ace trader Phil Flynn, T. Boone Pickens and Jim Rogers, agree that $100 per barrel is a plausible target before the beginning of next spring's driving season.
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 3:53 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Quote:
We think $100 per barrel oil is on the horizon in 2008, perhaps in the Spring," said Brian Hicks, co-manager of the Global Resources Fund. "Our forecast sees an average oil price around $80-$85, up from about an average of $70 in 2007."
Quote:
Eric Bolling, an independent oil trader at the Nymex, said conditions that led to a record-breaking year will likely persist over the next 12 months at least.
He sees oil ranging from $60 to $120 a barrel next year, with spikes as high as $130 or more in the case of a major hurricane or geopolitical flare-up.
Quote:
Stephen Leeb of Leeb Capital Management -- who also expects oil prices to break $100 a barrel next year -- said an economic slowdown could push prices down, but he's not betting on it.
Yet, this year I think that oil will not exceed the 2007 levels unless we get some type of major event (i.e. War, Hurricanes, etc). Oil is due for a breather in 2008 and why not, because it has been just one incredible run.
I think the EIA is high on the average as I expect crude will average $8025 while oil could hit as low as $6250. Yes, a bearish target for 2008! I know my long-term fans will be shocked.
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 6:53 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Hello everyone!
Though I am new here I'd like to post my predictions ( hope nobody minds).
My estimates are based solely on my information from 2 months worth of study since I found out about peak oil in mid-october 2007.
From what I understand about the subject, my predictions are :
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