Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 8:34 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Quote:
We don't recommend many airlines on the show, but we're certainly won't be recommending that one. Our forecast is 100 bucks for oil and pain for U.S. Air."
According to the survey, companies are basing their 2008 budgets on an average oil price of US$67.91/bbl and an average U.S. natural gas price of US$6.78/Mcf.
Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 9:14 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Quote:
Having predicted at his annual Economic Forecast luncheon in early December that oil prices could reach $200 a barrel 10 years from now, Economist Ray Perryman predicts crude prices will take producers and consumers alike on an interesting ride in 2008.
"I think oil prices are likely to moderate some in the spring, possibly into the $70s, as we enter a period of lower usage and likely somewhat less speculation in the market," he said in an e-mail. "The price also tends to become a little less sensitive to the weekly inventory numbers. In addition, the dollar appears to be stabilizing, which will moderate prices to some extent."
Perryman added that he expects prices to again head higher during the summer.
In fact, don't be surprised if you're paying $4 a gallon on Memorial Day weekend, said Brad Proctor, founder of Dayton-based GasPriceWatch.com.
Quote:
Crude probably won't fall below $80 a barrel again, Proctor said. And he figures gasoline prices will continue to be about 75 cents more than a year earlier.
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 4:13 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
[quote]$3 gasoline in this market is unavoidable," Stephen Schork, publisher of the industry newsletter the Schork Report, recently told CNNMoney.com. "At this rate, we're going to see $4 a gallon."\
New rule: for the purposes of this contest, any gas price prediction will be converted to crude oil by subtracting 65 cents for taxes, and multiplying by 42:
$4 per gallon (retail) minus 65 cents average taxes=$3.35 wholesale
=140.70
Joined: Sep 13, 2006 Posts: 272 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 5:13 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
hmmm
Low: $84.56
High: $122
Close: $116
I'll let you know my methods in a year, just in case I am amazingly accurate...then I'm writing a book on how to pull figures out of ones butt and look good while doing it.
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 5:18 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
pup55 wrote:
New rule: for the purposes of this contest, any gas price prediction will be converted to crude oil by subtracting 65 cents for taxes, and multiplying by 42:
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 5:33 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Quote:
Are we allowed to make a contradictory forecast to allow for a brief decoupling of oil and gasoline prices?
The above new "rule"was for the purpose of some of the forecasts which we found in the media, from people who have predicted $3.75 or $4 gas, but no detail on how it got there.
On the basis of your point, however, I am talked out of it, and will remove these forecasts from the "media/experts" statistics.
But, by all means, if you want to make an unleaded prediction, feel free.
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 6:07 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Quote:
Si Kannan from Kotak Commodities said that the current range of $85-100 per barrel is more likely to continue. “The fund interest that was generated in the second half of year 2007 is likely to be maintained in 2008,” Mr Kannan said.
Quote:
Anand Rathi Commodities’ Kishore Narne said that a lot of fresh capital may come with people reallocating their funds to different commodities, especially energy in 2008.
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In the end of the first quarter next year, crude February contract on Nymex is expected to touch $108 per barrel,” Mr Narne said.
Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for Global Insight in Lexington, Mass., doesn’t expect much relief from high crude oil prices over the next few years. But he suggests that weakened global economic growth in 2008 may dampen oil-price inflation from the 8% in 2007 to 5.5%.
Behravesh agrees with the economists at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto that a barrel of West Texas Intermediate will remain at high levels and cost an average $76 in 2008,
Quote:
Purchasingdata.com also is forecasting a 2008 average WTI price of $85/barrel
he London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies sees an average of about 90 dollars in the first half of the year, with a spike to 100 dollars a possibility.
"There are conditions in which we would see well over 100 dollars per barrel, such as a cool winter, tightness of OPEC supplies, or non-OPEC supply not growing as much as predicted," said CGES analyst Leo Drollas.
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