Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 6:23 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Quote:
Most of the commentators I take seriously see the price of oil oscillating in 2008 between $80 and $160-a-barrel. Simmons says Americans will keep sucking up the price increases, but they will probably freak out over spot shortages.
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 7:28 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
pup55 wrote:
The above new "rule"was for the purpose of some of the forecasts which we found in the media, from people who have predicted $3.75 or $4 gas, but no detail on how it got there.
On the basis of your point, however, I am talked out of it, and will remove these forecasts from the "media/experts" statistics.
But, by all means, if you want to make an unleaded prediction, feel free.
Sorry. It's just difficult holding someone to a prediction unless you know what thinking went into it. I will give gasoline some thought, although it will be something of a monkey's dart throw.
Pops wrote:
So what do I get if I win?
pup55 wrote:
4. The winner in each category (high, low and close) will be regarded with reverence, and generally declared to have superior intellect and/or clairvoyant powers, and get abundant respect from the fellow forum dwellers. Nothing bad will happen if you are wrong.
_________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 7002 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 8:18 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Twilight wrote:
...
Yea, as usual I didn’t read the directions.
My thought is we are now around the low point in price for the next year.
We will get the usual spike near Labor Day and maybe somewhat past as people ignore the higher price of fuel to relive the old days and keep the spouse happy.
Then some little glimpse of reality may dawn or, more likely, a scattering of pink slips and the upward price pressure at Starbucks and wally’s will take a small toll.
In any event, by this time next year the urge to make multiple trips to the mall with the CC will be somewhat hampered not only by the cost of the trip and the lack of credit but the still rising bite heat/power/milk/etc take from the budget.
Not Armageddon but not growth as usual either.
In short; a tad of demand destruction. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 8:40 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
High $146 Low $78 Close $122
What will happen in 2008 is harder to predict than the last few years. Oil demand in the US appears to have leveled off as prices approached $100, but demand may pick up some if prices fall back some.
Demand growth from Asia doesn't look like it will slow down, and supply will struggle to stay where it was in 2007 - and will only fall slightly. Still declining EROEI worldwide will subtly act to keep pushing prices higher even though net demand in 2008 will increase at a slower pace than in 2007.
Any wars in the Mideast/Asia will totally blow our price predictions up - prices could near $200 in the event, for example, of a bombing of Iran's new nuclear plant.
I don't view the ongoing mortgage related credit bubble collapse as deflationary throughout 2008, but a surprise bankruptcy at a financial company might be the reason we could temporarily see a sharp drop in the price of oil. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2008 12:24 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Troyboy1208 wrote:
We are making predictions about 2008 but was there a 2007 prediction thread? How did people fare?
Looks like a year was missed after a quick search, I did find a 2006 prediction thread, kinda general, but no 2007 prediction thread except Mr. Bill's trader's corner 07 thread. The doomer snippets are priceless! It came down to hurricane/no hurricane generally.
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1632 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2008 12:32 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
High 122
Low 73
Average 105
Why so low? One word...recession. I think geopolitics and spring demand will shoot the price of oil up to new levels in March/April.
When economic indicators show sustained decline in growth and then recession by the Summer- demand will start dropping and we will see oil prices drop to the 70's for a while.
Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2008 6:40 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
Quote:
TA said it expected crude oil prices to trend down and average around US$80 per barrel in 2008 compared with year-to-date average of US$71.50 per barrel.
OSK Investment Bank senior vice-president Chris Eng, in his strategy report for 2008, said oil prices were now largely decoupled from fundamentals with oil prices breaking the US$90-per-barrel level.
Tokyo: Tokyo-based bunker trader IBS maintains in its annual forecast that bunker prices could decline next year.
The ceo of the firm, Soren Bo Duvier Nielsen, said: ‘Everybody's still having both eyes on the oil price. After the price came close to 100 dollars a barrel late in 2007 it has resided somewhat and I see this as a more permanent basis from where we have to go.’
Volatility will still be there in spades, Nielsen stressed, but thought oil prices might decline to somewhere between US$50-70 per barrel, though the trend of box players to slow steam is likely to continue. [31/12/07]
The U.S. weekly Money Morning, quoting an international fund manager, forecasted, “International oil prices will surpass $100 per barrel in the spring of 2008.” The British Daily Telegraph predicted that oil prices will fluctuate to eventually end at $95 in the end of 2008.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 2:03 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
pup55 wrote:
Update:
PO.com: 37 contributors
High Low Close
Average 169.58 81.61 133.45
Note: If you kick out super-bulls roccman and sjn, which we won't do for the final tally, but if you did, the max is about 140
Talking Heads: 32 contributors
Quote:
High Low Close Average
Average 108.69 68.54 86.67 80.13
Deadline for revising and/or adding new predictions is the 7th.
I have $50 on the table with Tyler for $250 oil by 12.31.08
Oil is $100...a jump of 150% in a year?...hell... we went 900% in 7 years...(2000-2007) and 400% in three DAYS in 73.
To get to my "superbull" prediction of $600 all we need is something anywhere to trip the hair thin wire that ties our illusion together..actually $1000 (three zereos) is probably closer to the high of 08, but I wanted to be conservative with this crowd. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 5:25 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge
zzzpeakoil wrote:
roccman wrote:
Oil is $100...a jump of 150% in a year
I was bad at math... but..
If oil was 50$ last year, and now is 100$.. where does 150% come from? It's only +100%.
Oil is $100...my bet with tyler is that oil will go to $250 by 12.31.08.
That is a 150% increase. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
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It's just difficult holding someone to a prediction unless you know what thinking went into it. I will give gasoline some thought, although it will be something of a monkey's dart throw.
