We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Joined: Jun 09, 2007 Posts: 38 Location: San Diego, CA
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 4:20 pm Post subject: Evolution of Doomerism
When I learned about PO last summer, I was shocked and thought THEOTAWKI (including economic collapse, famine etc) was just around the corner and thought it could literally happen within the next few days/weeks.
In fact we started investing in gold immediately, put our house on the market, and decided to relocate, bought books on permaculture/gardening etc (you name it).
Now 6 months later, while I still believe that PO is going to be bad and will cause a collapse, I now think this will happen much *slower* than I originally thought, and I think we still have a few years probably until PO becomes really noticeable. I also think now that poorer countries will be hit first (because they can't afford expensive oil), which will dampen the effect a bit for other countries.
I think the collapse will happen over many years (maybe even decades).
I was wondering what *your* reaction was at first, and how it evolved.
Did you become more pessimistic or optimistic as time went by? Did you make any (drastic) decisions and maybe regret them later? Or do you still feel the exact same way?
It seems like whenever I read about it in detail, I feel quite doomerish and feel a sense of urgency to act, but this feeling goes away as I continue to live in this "society". I wonder if this is a psychological effect of some sort, maybe a disconnect between what we feel, and what we logically know to be true.
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 4:38 pm Post subject: Re: Evolution of Doomerism
I discovered peak oil in the summer of ’04. Like you, my early reaction soon faded but I was initially optimistic. After about a year of intense study, I came to the conclusion that we were truly Fark. I changed because I became aware of too many things that were rushing at us and that we (humans) were totally unprepared. Everywhere I looked; from resource use to economics to culture was mounting bad news. Then I realized that all of the above were merely symptoms, but symptoms of what. That occupied more time before arriving at the answer. That’s why I remain a doomer.
I have no idea how this is going to play out nor am I too concerned. Nor have I divined a workable timeframe for whatever is coming. It will come of its own accord and I’ll handle it then, or not. In either case, I’m doing what I should be doing so let it come. _________________ Who is John Galt?
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2105 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 6:05 pm Post subject: Re: Evolution of Doomerism
Just look at the depletion curve. It has a plateau leading into a slope which is gentle at first, but becomes exponentially steeper. I think we are at the plateau right now. We should have several years of increasing prices, but still readily available oil. As the huge wells dry up, one by one, things might get non linear, however. Towards the bottom of the curve, all the big wells are dry and we are left with millions of trickles. Of course the shale and tar sand oil will be still there, but it seems to me that we will never get a positive EROEI out of those.
However, if we somehow quit using oil for transportation, that would reduce our present consumption by something like 70%. _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 2722 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 6:14 pm Post subject: Re: Evolution of Doomerism
I was concerned at first, but kinda had an idea what was going to happen...
Then, when I discovered PO.com last summer, I began to get a better perspective on not only what was (probably) going to happen, but, also what it really took to live the way most of us do, and how much time it was going to take to make necessary changes to even come close to the present.
99.99999999999999999 % of the world is not prepared, and, I don't think there is time to motivate most to understand, let alone make the changes...
I am not a happy camper.... _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3363 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 6:14 pm Post subject: Re: Evolution of Doomerism
Kingcoal wrote:
Just look at the depletion curve. It has a plateau leading into a slope which is gentle at first, but becomes exponentially steeper. I think we are at the plateau right now. We should have several years of increasing prices, but still readily available oil. As the huge wells dry up, one by one, things might get non linear, however. Towards the bottom of the curve, all the big wells are dry and we are left with millions of trickles. Of course the shale and tar sand oil will be still there, but it seems to me that we will never get a positive EROEI out of those.
However, if we somehow quit using oil for transportation, that would reduce our present consumption by something like 70%.
It was faster to get from Downtown Minneapolis to downtown Saint Paul over a 100 years ago than present day.
Non-stop steam train did it daily within 20 minutes before 1900.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4022 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 7:05 pm Post subject: Re: Evolution of Doomerism
My doom was bad to begin with (when discovering this site), then i became a little more optomistic, and now i've just given up completely. I'll let the cards play out how they are dealt, because i really don't have any choice in the matter. You need to have serious wealth to get around this and its something i don't have. I think a LOT of people that think they are wealthy are going to be as Fark if not more Fark then poorer people (lifestyle change).
Vision-
Do they still have that homeless park right off one of the main highways up there in the cities? I remember seeing it a long time ago when i was going up to Anoka/Ramsey/Elk River area. Traffic up there is nasty. Last time i was just going to the airport (during an icestorm/snowstorm) and that blew ass. I was close to strangling a hotel worker because she was the biggest bitch i've ever dealt with. I haven't stayed in a hotel since and probably never will! _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 7:40 pm Post subject: Re: Evolution of Doomerism
Started off denying the any problem existed. Then became a hardcore doomer perspective of collapse and die-off so focusing on guns, gold, and land etc.
Following further reading and understanding, I am now more optimistic. After reading the Hirsch report and other US government reports on alternatives plus hundreds of other articles, I can see a situation where there will be declining oil resources but there will be alternatives to plug the gap to a certain extent.
The price mechanism will limit demand and economic growth and will also make it viable to EOR almost every field in the world. There is also no immediate sight to the end of new supply coming online. Circa 8 million barrels of capacity will be added in 2008 and the forecasts tend to be conservative from a couple of years out so the ones for 2009 onwards may increase from there current levels also. I think 2008 will be a surprising year for the people who have been arguing 2005 was the year of peak oil.
I now have the opinion that life will get a harder for us westerners, especially Americans as Europeans are far more energy efficient and have good electrified rail networks already, we will have less spare money and more people will be unemployed but we won't face a collapse and die-off. There will be a difficult transition to electrified transport and high efficiency vehicles and eventually a renewable/nuclear dominant energy system when gas/coal/climate issues begin to make them more competitive. I am less optimistic about the developing world though. Still under going rapid population growth and consuming land and resources at an ever-increasing pace will lead to a situation where either we may not want to or cannot support them and there will be a massive collapse, most likely in Africa but possibly in India and China as well.
The wild-card for me is climate change. You read James lovelocks opinion and you get the impression we are all going to die in the next 30 years but then again he has been wrong about almost everything else. Who knows, time will tell. I think that sums up my attitude now. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 8:13 pm Post subject: Re: Evolution of Doomerism
I think malaise is where I am now. At first I was all into planning and stuff. I have to say that I do not regret it. I have a good supply of food, tools, etc. that would be useful in any situation. I also got into food production and have tried to establish a certain level of physical fitness.
Coming from a fundamentalist Christian upbringing, honestly this feels like sitting around waiting for the 2nd coming of Christ!
Granted that PO has a certain "in our lifetime" urgency to it. However, it looks like it will take awhile for the real melt-down to occur.
At this point, I am taking the "la-di-da" approach. I would like to live to see old age, but I'm not willing to go all commando-style to do it. I have no desire to hole up in a bunker and try to out-live my starving neighbors. I will continue to maintain my current preparations, but I'm not going to worry about the worst-case scenario. If that lack of worry ends up killing me...well, at least I enjoyed life while I could.
Honestly, I think that we were all very lucky to be born in such a time of ease (compared with previous centuries). I can't imagine that ancient peoples would have much sympathy for the problems we face today! At least in America, your basic needs for food and shelter are usually met.
The only people I actually feel sorry for are my kids. They will inevitably face a crap-storm just as they are reaching adulthood and probably before.
Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:04 pm Post subject: Re: Evolution of Doomerism
one_more_day wrote:
Coming from a fundamentalist Christian upbringing, honestly this feels like sitting around waiting for the 2nd coming of Christ!
There's a reason for that. The die-off silliness that some "peakers" purvey is a permutation of the rapture silliness that some thumpers purvey. Both are irrational religious beliefs rooted in ancient Middle Eastern eschatology. I dismiss both as equally absurd and irrelevant.
I've never been freaked out by the "post-peak die-off" scenario. It never struck me as likely---not imposssible, but certainly not a high enough probability to worry oneself about, unless you happen to live in sub-Sahara Africa, in which case you're probably already screwed. Even if you do have faith in the die-off religion, what can one really do about it? It's not like praying to some invisible Jewish dude in the sky will help our sorry asses. The only people pretty much guaranteed to live through an event like this would be the ultra-rich, and I won't be joining their ranks any time soon.
My opinion has always been that Peak Oil will mean a nasty depression for the western world, something on the scale of the Great Depression, possibly worse, and probably longer term. Having been unemployed for a good chunk of 2007, then taking a massive pay cut just to get back to work, I know first hand what this will feel like. It sucks, but I was never in danger of starving to death. And despite the uncomfortable pay cut, I enjoy my new career field much more than my last one, plus it's a lot more useful from a post-peak, self-sufficiency perspective.
There's only so much that one can do to "prepare" for an economic recession/depression. Although I have stores of MREs, firearms, ammo, etc., the best preps are lots of cash in the bank, low living expenses, good health, and plenty of job skills. If you can survive joblessness for 6+ months then take a 50% wage cut once you finally find another job, you are probably ahead of the curve.
Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 12:51 pm Post subject: Re: Evolution of Doomerism
I still believe in die-off if you combine PO with GW. GW is causing a mass extinction event and I don't think we are completely isolated from that. There is no way of knowing how this will bubble up the food chain.
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