What are your predictions for 2008?

benzoil

It's New Year's Eve and the wife and kids are visiting her family, so I'm trapped here with a cold Stella Artois writing a computer program for work that will be useless in X months when the consumer economy pancakes. (No more Stella then!)

James Kunstler just posted his 2008 predictions over on his web site and it occurred to me that this would be an interesting exercise. I'm a little weary of the "Best/Worst" lists for 2007 so let's peer ahead a bit...

What are YOUR predictions for 2008? I'll toss a couple of mine out there for general consumption:

1) No presidential candidate will use the words peak oil during the run up to the main election.

2) Housing market finally throws in the towel once the post-Super Bowl, post-Spring, post-Summer, post-Back to School seasons have come and gone with nary a hit.

3) Peak oil still plays second media fiddle to Global warming. Despite continuing bad news for those of us watching for it, PO will still continue to be a "non-crisis". It will get some play when oil crosses $100/barrel (See #4), but otherwise will be mostly ignored.

4) Economic recession masks true rising price of oil as dollar continues it's slide. Tar sands and corn ethanol enthusiasts confidently inform us that their processes will be economically viable at "current cost of oil plus $15 USD". Also, slowing economy will slow rise in oil use, but not as much as previous recessions.

5) Wild Ass Guess (WAG): Someone takes a potshot at the Democratic Presidential nominee. Hope not, but it's getting weird out there.

6) Mainstream press still won't notice that an epoch is shifting. Thus, average person will still know more about Britney Spears' pregnant sister than why they should probably not buy one of those used Jet Skis you'll see everywhere this year.

7) Another WAG: Drought in metro Atlanta will continue, but disaster will be averted. Sadly, drought in Southwest and central US will be a bigger story this year. It might get missed though, unless there are more wildfires near a major TV market.

Happy New Year!

[Edited for spelling and to note that I'm not a professional prognosticator, but from what I've seen on MSNBC, that's like saying you have an IQ above room temperature.]
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pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3586

1. There will be at least 4 more interest rate cuts by the FED. It will still be unsuccessful in stopping the subprime crap. By election day, the Fed overnight rate will be less than 2%.

2. One of the top 10 US banks will go out of business between now and July 1. One of the top 5 home builders in the US will also go out of business. One of the top 3 US auto companies will merge with an Asian company in 2008.

3. Unfortunately, there will be a major terror event in Europe, There will not be a major terror event in the US.

4. Hillary Clinton will not be elected President of the US.

5. Another 750 of our kids will die in Iraq. Another 10,000 Iraqis will die in Iraq.

6. A major game fixing/gambling scandal will hit one of the major Pro sports.

7. Israel will not bomb Iran.

8. A big tornado outbreak in April or early May will hit the central US, and kill a lot of people. Louisville KY watch out.

9. A screwup will ground the Space Shuttle fleet for at least 6 months. The Russians, Europeans and Chinese will do a better job using disposable rockets.

I will save #10 for later.

perdition79

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Twilight · Expert Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 2971 Location: UK

mmasters

I would guess at least 1 major event on the order of a Katrina or a 9/11, very likely a massive earthquake or volcanic eruption.

The Olympics will be a big deal one way or another too (oh yeah, and the start date btw is 8-8-08)

mmasters

This guy has some interesting predictions

benzoil

Pops

Man, Pup set a high bar.

I guess for the general populace there might be a wake up call from…

Nothing much.

They will shell out a few more bucks to get to work, spend a little more for boneless, skinless chicken breasts, and a few dollars more on video games and all the myriad things little girls in china and everywhere else assemble and sell us.

Perhaps some may even get in a pinch when they find our Real Estate ATM is running low and do something different.

But a few will realize they are in a pot about to boil and decide to jump.
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Lanthanide

Pops

heroineworshipper

Hillary wins by a landslide.

The media stops covering Dubya as soon as Hillary wins.

Hillary destroys Idaho.

Hillary destroys Fl*rida.

Hillary destroys the moon.

Hillary declares herself the ultimate power in the universe.
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There will be enslavement & cannibalism.

alokin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2007 Posts: 700

1. severe crisis in Pakistan, US government without plan
2. Taliban very active. terrorist attacs
3. recession in the US maybe elsewhere
4. oil under $100 due to recession
5. severe weather events
6. end of US as a democracy (yet halfway at least)

I have no good feeling for the next year, not due to PO, more the confrontation of the west with the radical Islam. PO will maybe play a minor roll as things might become quite chaotic.

I am just reading a very good book " Dark Ages America"

thor · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 21, 2005 Posts: 450

2008 will just be like 2007 but everything is just going to be a little worse. Higher oil, financial meltdowns and so forth.

One interesting thing to see is Russia playing geopolitical chess. Putin continues to steer the country in such a position for total control of their natural recources. My guess is that Putin does not believe democracy and the free market really work in a world where natural recources become scarce. I'm afraid he could be right. Europe will find itself in a worsening position.

evilgenius

Kenya and Pakistan will turn out, for those mindful of it, to have been orchestrated by the US in order to begin throttling down oil consumption in the Third World. Third World problems will get worse.

The Russians won't give Putin what he wants in terms of his desired form of governance, but he will rule anyway.

The US will get its collective head around pulling out of Iraq, with some ironic help (watch out) from the Bush Administration.

There will be even less legitimate reason for the heightened terror stance by the governments in the West, but curiously they will succeed in implementing various levels of drastic policy. Some countries will push back on this.

It will be a stock picker's market. Most people will get creamed, especially little guys. Watch yields when looking for a bottom, low yielders have farther to go (even the ones with big names).

America will whore itself out to the highest bidder like never before.

WAG - Bush will go back to the bottle. The press won't admit it until he wets himself on live TV.
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"Hope encourages men to take risks; men in a strong position may follow her without ruin, if not without loss. But when they stake all that they have to the last coin (for she is a spendthrift), she reveals her real self in the hour of failure."

benzoil