Will organic farms takeover when oil becomes very expensive?

namenick · Heavy Crude Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 270

Yep, american goldfinch and I looked them up in my Audibon book. I didn't see any more than a dozen at one time but that's all it took to wipe out about 20' of turnip leaves. Almost. A couple got under the netting and they got whacked with a stick. Sorry to have to do that but I wanted to hang a carcass to see if that would work. If those things came in a big flock to a big garden they could wipe it out in short order. This past year is the only year that I have had trouble with them so it may be a new species around here. Bugs, not a problem as yet to any degree but there's lots of lady bugs around which are supposed to be beneficial for some pest control.

Deer, they destroy everything, even the stuff which is supposed to be deer proof. We have to put wire around everything pretty well, except daffodils.

patience · Expert Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 1666

Organic is a pretty loosely defined term today,but going with the flow here, I'd have to say no, it won't take over until it is economically feasible. For farmers, money is the bottom line, or you are not a farmer for very long.

Beyond that, current farming methods, particularly no-till, uses less fuel than plowing tillage methods. The immediate cost is for herbicides to kill competing weeds. The long term cost is compounded nutrient depletion from monoculture (continuous corn), along with environmental damage from herb- and pesticides, plus water pollution from chemical runoffs. Soil erosion, however, is reduced compared to plow tillage. It's a mixed bag.

"Organic" food is still a fad, undefined, and foisted off onto an uniformed public without standards of what is perceived as healthier food.

The basics of agriculture 50 years ago were largely what is called organic today. Chemical fertilizers started to become popular then, but faced resistance from farmers who saw it as an unnecessary expense. When the profitability was proven to their satisfaction, they used it and never looked back. The same scene had happened earlier with horse vs. tractor power.

Farming in the 1940's and '50's used typically a 3 or 4 year crop rotation, of corn, wheat, hay (oftem clover or other legume to fix nitrogen), followed by corn again, a heavy nitrogen feeder. Animal manures were used as available. Neighbors told my Dad he was foolish for building a new large corn crib, because that farm had never produced enough corn to fill it! He used fertilizer for the first time there, and filled that crib and everything else on the farm, too. The neighbors were quiet then, and began to imitate what he did. Corn had yielded 25 to 40 bu./acre before, which fertilizers brought up to 100 to 120 bu./acre immediately. Better seed varieties and practices have the yields pushing 200 bu./acre now.

For the years since then, more and more the trend was to growing more corn, as it made more money, and crop rotation fell out of favor. That could change, as wheat has reached $10/bu., and we have "beans in the teens". Rotation had the benefit of interrupting the life cyles of weeds and bugs, and returning nutrients to the soil by plowing down residues. Soil microbial life has suffered to the point that now, crop residues may persist undecayed for several years on top of the ground that is no-tilled. The soil is more or less dead. Certain weeds, immune to the chemicals, persist and soils are laced with their seeds.

Of the future of farming , I am uncertain, except on 2 points: 1) It will follow the money, and 2) Any change to non-chemical , non-fertilized methods will be hard, and painful.

vfr · Tar Sands Joined: Dec 31, 2007 Posts: 95

namenick · Heavy Crude Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 270

vfr wrote:

LoneSnark · Intermediate Crude Joined: Nov 15, 2007 Posts: 514

namenick · Heavy Crude Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 270

That's about what I had in mind although yours is a little extravagant in it's attempt to be stylish. Something more like the size of a large cookie which is worn on the back of the head does the job quite nicely. That's what I wear and you will notice that I still hve my wits about me to some degree.

vfr · Tar Sands Joined: Dec 31, 2007 Posts: 95

Forgot to mention...if we look at the trends of farming in the US is goes in just one direction ... down.

One reason much of the citrus groves in Fla and CA are disappearing is due to skyrocketing real estate values. You know farming is tough work and many times nature deals you a blow with disease, pests and inclement weather that destroys crops.

So why would a farmer want to put up with all that when they could get $5,000,0000 or $10,000,000 for prime real estate?

http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2007/Oct/19/bz/hawaii710190345.html

http://www.californiagreensolutions.com/cgi-bin/gt/tpl.h,content=1039

Do you know what's with the high cost of apples and pears? Some of em are priced at $2.49 a pound? There was a glut on the market of apples and pears a while back and the prices tanked. So the farmers deiced to produce less, store less, do less work and jack up the prices to make the same or more money for less production.

At Krogers I've seen apples go for $1.65 each! What will apples and pears cost in a post carbon world? And when you get those $1.65 apples home and cut into them they are mealy as hell!

V

vfr · Tar Sands Joined: Dec 31, 2007 Posts: 95

namenick · Heavy Crude Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 270

Well I can tell you one thing for sure to make you sleep well vfr. When I was working in Syncrude we carried Motorola radios to communicate when in the field. We also had microwave ovens at Syncrude and they had a policy of testing them for leakage. We put a Motorola radio next to a microwave tester, pushed the transmit button, and the radio blew the tester right off scale.

Be on the safe side and wear your hat. Cell phones may do the same thing, I don't know.

kpeavey · Expert Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 1315

Organic farming and gardening methods will be the only option when fossil fuel inputs are priced out of reach or simply unavailable. The methods are simple, duplicatable, sustainable, and can be achieved with human and animal power in the complete absence of exosomatic energy inputs.

Problems arise when the issue of scale comes into view. Converting vast field of grain to organic methods would require enormous amounts of compost, infrastructure and systems to gather materials, transport the mass and distribute it over the desired area. There are not enough draft animals to replace the fueled machinery required to do the job. It would take years to repopulate the animals. Skilled humans are needed to tend and drive the draft animals. Housing and infrastructure would be needed in close proximity to the fields to serve the needs of the people and draft animals.

In town, backyard gardens can make a fine contribution to food production. However, the volume of compostables may not be available in an urban setting for every home in town to produce their compost needs. My own data shows 60 sqft of urban lawn, trees and shrubbery is needed to produce the compost for 1 sqft of double dug raised beds without the inclusion of animal litter. A big lot, some backyard chickens and rabbits, and a simple diet can all work towards the possibility of a self sufficient urban garden, but the challenges will be many. Urban areas will be able to supplement their food production, but will still need to import their food from the surrounding areas.

The next scale problem is storage. I've seen fruit travel 150 miles to get to a processing facility. With a truck its not a problem, 3 hours of driving. Without fossil fuels, processing centers will need to be located close to the fields=more infrastructure investment and reduced efficiency. For more localized food production, farmer's markets and frequent shopping will have to replace refrigeration and freezing. Fresh produce will be limited to the growing season and conditions of the area. Fresh apples in April will become a thing of the past. Preserving apples when they are in season is entirely possible. Done at home, equipment and skills will have to be acquired.

Time is the enemy. Getting the structures/systems/equipment/skills in place in time to prevent catastrophe is the challenge before us.

Debates have raged as to whether organic food production can meet industrial food production levels. In my experience, it can. The cost of not doing so is disaster. The cost of doing so will require a change of lifestyle on a grand scale. Currently 2% of the US population is involved in agriculture. I've seen conservative estimates of around 25% of the population being involved in the fields and on the farm in order to make the whole idea work. You no longer turn over hamburgers, you turn over sod. You don't work with a computer, you work with a team of horses.

Theory says it can be done.
Desperation will help motivate the process.
Common sense says it will be difficult.
Logistics hints that it will not be complete.
Experience tells me it is a pipe dream.
History shows that it is easier to wage war.
_________________
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984

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Accept the Facts.

namenick · Heavy Crude Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 270

kpeavy- I think it will mean that a lot of farms will have to start growing a lot of rice to feed the masses. Don't take that as some kind of joke because it's certainly not meant that way. People can live a healthy life on rice and little else, albeit they won't be carrying around a lot of excess fat. The trend at the moment seems to be for the people who can't afford good food to move toward cheap junkfood so I think we are a long way off yet.

As for growing all the good vegetables and fruit which we are used to having, I don't think it's possible to do without oil based fertilizers, as of course it won't be possible to raise livestock on land which is needed for agriculture. I think we just need to look to China or India for the answers.

Just as an afterthought it struck me that instead of throwing out the turkey carcass from the Christmas dinner after cutting off the meat, I could have put it in a pot and made good use of it. My wife and I could have lived off that carcass for a week by supplementing it with a bowl of rice each day.

Ludi

namenick · Heavy Crude Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 270

Ludi

Rice is somewhat difficult to grow and produces a low amount of calories for the amount of land required to grow it. I would recommend other crops such as potatoes, sweet potatoes, garlic, and other root vegetables to provide calories.

I eat quite a bit of rice myself, but I do not grow it, not living in a climate which gets sufficient rain for rice.

I like to hope people will choose to grow crops which provide more calories and food value for the amount of work required to grow them.

Reference: "One Circle"

http://www.bountifulgardens.org/prodinfo.asp?number=BEA%2D0370

For a lower-labor method of growing rice (in the proper climate), I recommend the book "The One Straw Revolution" by Masanobu Fukuoka.
_________________
"...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy

namenick · Heavy Crude Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 270

Thanks for the info Ludi but I have no intention of growing rice at the present. I know little about it but apparently it's a dietary staple for 2/3 of the world's people. Why don't they grow potatoes, yams, corn, sweet potatoes instead of rice.

I know I can grow potatoes, corn, most vegetables on my land but I don't do it at present because I don't find the need to do it other than a small hobby plot of about 20x40 feet. I actually am most interested in growing tomatoes because they are far, far better than anything we can buy in the stores.

But I have an interest in the subject because if we do get into a situation where there is a food crunch then the possibility of growing quite a bit is there. Also looking ahead, I expect my children may see it to be smart to hang onto the property.

'Solar' greenhouse too in case anyone is interested in the possibilities or has some good info. Mine is heated at present with two oil drums painted flat black and full of water. This is the first winter for it so I'm keeping an eye on temperature differences from inside to out. Not bad but still needs to be fully insulated on the north side which will help some more.