My predictions for a Peak Oil future (USA)

Kingcoal

2010: The collapse of the LCR world economy. Low Cost Regions will become high cost regions because of the oil situation. China, India, etc, will find that their costs are too high because of the high cost of feedstock, namely oil. This will be a huge problem because they are already at rock bottom with most of the rest of their costs, namely labor. In the US, gas will be $8/gal discouraging frivolous use. There will be a fire sale of gas guzzling vehicles of all types. Car pooling will make a big comeback, not because of government action, but because of economic reasons. Many people simply will not be able to afford going to work for an employer who doesn't even pay enough to provide necessities. People finally start to realize that the old days of plenty are permanently over.

2020: Gas now at $20/gal. Citizen unrest is at an all time high. Unemployment at 25%, crime is also at an all time high. Criminal gangs outnumber police. Food is now very expensive and limited in supply. All of the great economic drivers of the past 50 years are dead; imported products are unaffordable, real estate is in long term depreciation. A cycle of malaise exists in the country. The UN closes shop in New York. World trade turns into a “wild west” of cowboy behavior. The Russians start claiming real estate all around them and find no contest. The US finally goes to war with Russia over rights to the North Pole and Eastern Europe which ends in a draw.

2025: Gas and diesel are too expensive to waste on vehicles and airplanes. Two exceptions are trains and watercraft which are efficient by design. The US embarks on a huge government works project to reinstate rail lines as they are the only remaining form of long distance land transportation. The cities swell in size; old ghettos fill up with people of all races looking for affordable housing. Unemployment reaches an unprecedented 30% and the government finally tells its people that it can no longer give them charity. With the currency close to worthless and hugely declining tax revenues, the government pulls inward to form a state within a state. These elite have police protection, adequate supplies and clout, everyone else is just part of the great unwashed, locked out masses. The Electric Grid routinely shuts down during winter months due to deadbeat customers heating their homes with electric heaters. Huge riots break out over shutting down electricity to poor areas. The government makes it a top priority to provide electricity at all costs. Electricity becomes the last remaining government charity program.

2030: The birthrate is at an all time low and high infant mortality takes care of the rest. The US resembles many other countries with a privileged elite and a huge unemployed, unproductive mob. Organized crime acts as a proxy government and police force for the masses in the cities. The government makes deals with the gang leaders with the goal of preventing riots, fires and crime against the elite. New York in some ways now resembles the movie "The Gangs of New York." The black market is the primary economic activity for most of the people in the country. Ordinary people routinely starve and/or freeze to death. The subways become home for huge numbers of people seeking refuge from freezing temperatures. Ordinary people rarely travel more than 10 miles of their residence.

2040: Because the are all officially bankrupt, the States cede their jurisdiction to the federal government one by one. Finally, the US Constitution is officially discarded as having no legally binding power because the separate States no longer exist. The United States is officially renamed “United America.” A new currency is issued which is based on the government’s control of electricity, which is traded like a hard commodity.

2050: With significant population reduction and the emergence of a new generation of people who know nothing of the heady days of the last century, the UA settles into a new economy based on energy efficiency. Residential regions are rebuilt with huge apartment buildings and public transit systems. Most people now live in apartments, many underground (to save heating/cooling costs), the privileged live in row houses and no one but the super rich have detached houses. All farming is nationalized and controlled by the UA department of Agriculture. All UA residents are required to swear an oath of allegiance and serve in the military. All voting is direct, no electoral college anymore. The UA government retains its three branches and functions as the US did with the exception that there are no more separate State and Local governments; they all report directly to the federal government. The new United American government is much more efficient and allows the government to embark on huge energy and transportation projects.

2070: The world is almost unrecognizable from turn of the century eyes. Electricity powers most vehicles, including trains. The US government constructs huge solar powered electric plants in the desert. Electricity is now nationalized and completely controlled by the US government. Super Conducting technology enables the long distance transportation of electricity with little loss. The world is now mostly electric powered as battery technology has advanced to make electric vehicles cheap and practical. Oil is too expensive for just about every use. Use of energy is carefully planned like never before. Laws have been written to give the federal government jurisdiction over any large scale use of energy. Construction projects are designed around efficient use of energy. There are plenty of cheap workers in every country, no need to look to the third world for cheap labor. There now exists large “wastelands” between cities punctuated by fortress-like farms. Some large population areas are now walled off for protection. With a monopoly on all long distance transportation, the US government oversees these areas between the new city-states. Rouge bands of bandits and other non-conformists inhabit the wastelands. The world’s population now stands at about three billion and relatively stagnant.

The main gist of my short story is that I think that the USA will disappear and reemerge as a single country, with the federal government taking over all government functions. This is the way European countries are designed and I believe that it is the way of the future because the harsh realities will require massive central planning without the usual inefficient politics between the different levels. The country will be bankrupt and in order to revive its credibility, it will have to simplify its structure. I believe that there are already secret contingency plans for this based on some comments by high ranking government officials, notably Tommy Franks. The Constitution is nothing more than a convention, a treaty between the former colonies establishing the United States as defender of the treaty. If the States vanish, then so does the Constitution.
_________________
"That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money

bobaloo · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 14, 2004 Posts: 484

The funny thing is that I feel pretty much the opposite. Living here in the PNW, DC is 3000 miles away from me. That's a long way to project power in a time of decreased energy supplies.

I'm seeing much more of a feeling amongst the public that the feds are out of touch and out of control and seeking to reestablish more power on a local and state level. While the feds will fight that, the only real power they've had is money, their mantra is "take our money follow our rules". Here in my little town we've told them to stuff their money, we're not interested in following their rules, and they're running out of money to hand out anyway.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but as the money runs out I see much more of a trend towards localization. I see you're in Pennsylvania. Have you ever driven around the western US? When you're in the northeast you have a much different mental picture of the country than when you're in the west. The first time you hear people refer to Colorado as being "in the Midwest" you really appreciate that fact.

aflurry · Intermediate Crude Joined: Mar 28, 2005 Posts: 838

my feeling is that you've got the states ceding to the fed backward. the fed government mostly just contracts out to private companies now.

we will see disintegration into smaller states or their privately owned equivalent.

IanC

I agree that we'll see something more localized. WE'll still have a national military, but decisions will be made on a local level for many things. As resources become more scarce, people won't agree to have "their" resources shipped to some other state. For example, do you think the people here in the Pacific Northwest will want to send their abundant hydro-electric power to other regions' air conditioners or keep it for their own trains and lights?

-Ian
People's Republic of Cascadia

Don35 · Heavy Crude Joined: Feb 07, 2006 Posts: 143

Yes localization, but I think the timeline should shorten considerably. I think it will all collapse MUCH faster. War over oil. It will not be pretty. Can you tell I’m a doomer?
_________________
Everybody thinks they're righteous! Adam Baldwin "Jayne" Firefly/Serenity

Kingcoal

Why more localism, what's the theory behind that?
_________________
"That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money

Dry · Tar Sands Joined: Dec 10, 2007 Posts: 23

When does the USA make private citizen firearms illegal?

sittinguy · Heavy Crude Joined: Sep 07, 2007 Posts: 381

Alot of people will go to jail if they try to take guns away. If they start building large prisons. Thats when I will start getting worried. I don't know what the hell is going to happen. I don't know how its still going so good? I do think we are headed for recession, but it will only hurt the little guys.

But the story was GREAT. good imagination. The one thing you left out is when will we have marshall law. You know it will happen eventually.
The elites will demand and reqiure it. Americans are not going to let go of this way of life easily

patience · Expert Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 1666

I would expect $10 gas to quickly result in high unemployment, as the cost feeds through the whole economy. In 1973-74, the panic mentality caused by the oil embargo cuased the gas lines. Spot shortages now would do the same thing, I think. In '74, I saw unemployment go to 24.6% in Kokomo, IN, an auto mfrg town, as car sales plummeted. There was grass growing in the mall parking lots, in cracks. 80% of mall stores closed, and the only ones left were big corp. stores with more endurance. Don't know what happened to employment on national scale, but it slowed significantly.

Ultimately, that was a blip, and once the gas flowed again, cars sold and all was fine, except that people bought smaller cars, and the domestic auto industry started the slow slide to it's present state. So, I see it as a body blow to the economy, and would expect $10 gas to bring 15-20% unemployment, once it sunk in that it was permanent.

Kingcoal

Kingcoal

Pops

Kingcoal

Pops, I think the best universal advice is to pay off all your debt. In past emergencies, private property rights have generally been respected, perhaps because otherwise you have total anarchy. If you own your home outright and have no debt, you are in much better shape than your neighbor who just lost his job and has a $3,000/mo mortgage. The bankers will do mass foreclosures and we will see a huge transfer of wealth to the elite - just like what happened in the Great Depression.

The next step is to work on a "cottage industry" where you can make money from your home in case you lose your job. I disagree with the survivalist mentality; people are not the enemy, at least not all of them. You need to be able to protect yourself, but even in the worst conditions, people will still trade, humans are hardwired to do so. Be able to defend your home and look for opportunities. Most people will be completely bewildered, looking for government bailouts. Use your knowledge of the ramifications of peak oil to take advantage of opportunities as they come along. Your knowledge that things will get much worse before they get better can be used to profit and it is important that you do so. Why? Because you are quite frankly better informed and more disciplined than the average Joe and you need to take your rightful place in that society. People will need guidance, a lot of it and you can help them, but don't do it for free. Most people unconsciously believe that free stuff really doesn't cost anything. Most people are petty and can't grasp altruistic charity, so stick it to them; it's for yours and ultimately their own good.
_________________
"That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money