The world can now count on one geopolitical earthquake every 10 years. Between 1985 and 1995, it was the fall of the Berlin Wall, the implosion of the Soviet Union, the collapse of communist parties the world over, and America's emergence as the world's only superpower. Between 1995 and 2005, it was the September 11, 2001, attacks against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon that triggered a war on, and the defeat of, Afghanistan's despotic Taliban regime followed by a war on, and the defeat of, Saddam Hussein's bloody tyranny. So between 2005 and 2015, what's on the global menu?
The U.S. can prevail conventionally anywhere but seems helpless in coping with asymmetrical warfare.
In quick succession:
• The dollar ceases to be the world's reserve currency.
Followed by a rapid fire sequence of mounting disasters. This seems regarded as the most likely scenario. What should I look for to see if step 1 is happening?
How about a devaluation of the dollar by 30% in a single year, and other countries buying almost zero treasury bills compared with their previous purchases?
The world can now count on one geopolitical earthquake every 10 years. Between 1985 and 1995, it was the fall of the Berlin Wall, the implosion of the Soviet Union, the collapse of communist parties the world over, and America's emergence as the world's only superpower. Between 1995 and 2005, it was the September 11, 2001, attacks against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon that triggered a war on, and the defeat of, Afghanistan's despotic Taliban regime followed by a war on, and the defeat of, Saddam Hussein's bloody tyranny. So between 2005 and 2015, what's on the global menu?
I would say the collapse of the United States. The world has discovered the Achilles' heel of the US...its huge unsustainable deficits. The world now knows its feeds/funds this monster. To destroy it, one has to stop feeding it. And that is what is happening.
The phenominal fall in the value of the dollar over the past year alone is the proof the world is not happy with the way the US is using threats and wars to dominate the world. So they have begun to stop funding the US. A bankrupt nation can not feed and shelter its masses and still wage war with other nations.
As for Saddam's tyranny, that is more US propaganda then truth. I'm no fan of Saddam, but I now see his rule kept the tribes in line. Without him or someone like him, there is no chance of peace in that region as the tribes fight for power and constantly fight amongst themselves. One must ask themselves this: Are Iraqis better off today or when Saddam was in power? Sure many lived in fear then, but I bet more live in fear now.
Yep, the whole world vs. the USA (they are working on it, even now)!
The EU, Russia, China, East Asia, India, Japan, South America, much of Africa, Iran--the list goes on and on and on....
Canada will have an effective underground once the US annexes it; Central America and the Caribbean will play both ends against the middle, as will Central Asia (since most US troops will be in the Middle East, Canada, Alaska, and N.E. Russia [gateway to Siberia and Arctic oil supplies]).
This country ain't got a prayer--unless it wants to nuke the world to extinction, which I, personally, wouldn't put past us.
Anyway, that's the next global hotpoint: THE WHOLE GLOBE!
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Fri Dec 17, 2004 10:27 am Post subject:
Regarding the world ganging up on the US, it's not as simple as it sounds. The US is the worlds single biggest customer. Destroying the US economically would not be in the best interest of most countries in the world. Most producer nations around the world make a lot more stuff than they consume. With the US out of the picture, they will have to figure out what to do with all that capacity. Some people say the EU will absorb it, I highly doubt that. The EU, like most exporters, is concerned with keeping their citizens employed through exports.
The world is frustrated on how to go about reigning in the US, that's for sure.
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Fri Dec 17, 2004 12:42 pm Post subject:
I can't prove it, but I think "collapse of the united states" is a bit far fetched. Let's take a medium term view. 19th century. OK, so the US has been a pain in the ass at times. And we've always had our own interests in mind (who doesn't?). Europe was doing what? Oh yeah, killing millions of Jews, I think there was a Armenian slaughter over on that side, there were millions of Russians who died. What was happening in Asia? Oh yeah. Millions of Chinese dying. Japanese fighting pre-emptive wars. Not a pretty picture.
Sure, it's true. The US muscled it's way into Mexican territory. Indians died--mainly from disease, but from direct warfare as well. This was a migration we must admit. And we continued slavery much longer than we should have. Even our founders were troubled by the contradictions. But they didn't know what to do about it.
So let's see, after WWII the US did get involved with some warfare around the world, but also helped lead the world in the direction of democracy.
So if the world really WANTS to the US to collapse, I think they are stupid, short-sighted, and ungrateful.
OK, where are we now? Yes, we have an idiot president--I do think him pretty damn stupid--has got to be one of the biggest dopes we've had in a long long time. The US is living beyond its means. And we've lost the leadership of many issues--environmental, etc. But we still lead the world in many of these same issues, and if the world is so short-sighted and short-term in their thinking, well, to hell with them.
I do not like the present direction of the country, nor the leadership--I think them corrupt, insular, and heading on a path that will lead to economic and political difficulty--but the US isn't going to "collapse" anytime soon. We may have a severe recession, or even a depression, but that is not collapse. Once the imbalances are worked out, the US will still have the largest economy, the largest manufacturing base, the best educated work force, etc. We've got work to do. And it's not going to be a free ride any longer, like it was from WWII through the end of the century. We've got competition. But you know what: American helped create that competition. So we're getting what we deserve. But there's nothing wrong with it.
We've partied just a but too long and it's time for a hangover. The past few years Greenspan has been feeding us the hair of the dog that bit us, trying to cure the hangover for the last big party (stock market). It's made us feel better, but now it turns out we're drunk again. So it's time to get off the juice.
The biggest fear the world has right now is that we're not going to buy their stuff.
Increased fighting forces UNO to suspend relief operations
While the United States of America deploys hundreds of billions of dollars in a one-sided massacre in Iraq, based on no foundation whatsoever, except for barefaced lies, after the United States of America insulted, belittled and disrespected the United Nations Organization so wantonly and so completely, a real crisis affecting up to two million people unfolds before our eyes in Sudan
It does't sounds like they are too concerned about us buying their stuff!
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Fri Dec 17, 2004 2:01 pm Post subject:
shortonoil: You're right. We are concerned that they won't buy our debt. Which we use to buy the world's stuff. So it's a game of chicken. We have to work our way out of it--on both sides. Asia cannot rely on export to drive their economies.
As far as Sudan, it is a tragedy. And I agree that the US has wasted its time and money and good will on a ill-coneived war in Iraq. But perhaps this is an opportunity for Europe to take the lead. Do they have any troops that they can put on the ground in Sudan? Have they already? The Chinese could also consider flying troops in to help in Sudan. I'm not sure whether they have or not.
With due consideration for all the mistakes the US made in the past, and the stupid arguments for the Iraq war and the pathetic execution, Saddam Hussein had invaded two neighboring countries, had in the past attempted to build nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, and had continued to thumb his nose at the international community. The US should not have gone in their in my opinion, and I'm very angry with the whole thing, but oil is a strategic interest, Iraq WAS dangerous (and I mean WAS before the war, I don't think Saddam was dangerous any more), and the US could--from a historical perspective--argue that he was a threat. Poor argument. But we did it and now we're stuck with it.
Europe and Asia have an opportunity to lead the world, and should do so. Competition is great. The US needs some real competition on the international front. For the last 100 years, we've largely not had any.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3429 Location: California, USA
Posted: Fri Dec 17, 2004 11:57 pm Post subject:
It is truly pathetic that our economy depends on other nations buying our debt, rather than buying whatever positive goods & services we could produce. Debt is a negative good, or a "bad" if you will. What's our primary export? Debt. That's like saying, it's cocaine, or body parts for transplants which were harvested from kidnapped children.
Agreed, we do need some good competition. The force that makes companies stronger in the market also make nations stronger in the world community.
Competition will press us to live up to our ideals, to cut the fat and pork from our economic priorities (e.g. tax-cut-and-spend, poorly-executed military operations, socialism for the rich), and to respond to criticism with something other than a shrug.
To that extent, I wouldn't say we're getting what we "deserve," but rather, we're getting something we know we need: a dose of medicine that might not taste good going down, but will make us healthier in the long run. Sometimes living consistently with one's principle requires putting up with inconveniences.
Joined: Apr 17, 2004 Posts: 984 Location: Tulsa, Ok
Posted: Sat Dec 18, 2004 1:02 am Post subject: kind of ironic
Its ironic that the question is asked why the US doesn't something about Sudan's problem but no other country will. No body asks why doesn't any other country do something about this problem.
China has the military muscle to do something about what is happening in the Sudan. China is a world power too. China could send in 100,000 troops and make a few changes in the Sudan for sure! _________________ Peace out!
Regarding the world ganging up on the US, it's not as simple as it sounds. The US is the worlds single biggest customer. Destroying the US economically would not be in the best interest of most countries in the world. Most producer nations around the world make a lot more stuff than they consume. With the US out of the picture, they will have to figure out what to do with all that capacity. Some people say the EU will absorb it, I highly doubt that. The EU, like most exporters, is concerned with keeping their citizens employed through exports.
The world is frustrated on how to go about reigning in the US, that's for sure.
It isn't so much the world ganging up on the US, it is the US's bullying attitude towards the world that is getting people upset. Many countries are poor and poverty stricken and they blame the US. The US dollar hegemony has created a situation that if you have nothing in the form of resources or goods to offer the US in exchange for paper dollars you just remain poor forever.
People see themselves struggling long painful hours slaving so that Americans can live a plush life. Even the middle class of other countries feel this way. And the only gratitude they get is American saying: "you don't do anything for us, we are always giving you money and then you spit on us."
As for the way Americans consume, maybe if dollar hegemony is ended, there is a better chance of a balance so that people in other countries can make enough to afford the things they make instead of relying on the US to consume it. Very one-sided and very bad.
So if the world really WANTS to the US to collapse, I think they are stupid, short-sighted, and ungrateful.
Most intelligent people don't want the US to collapse, they want the US to be an equal partner. But the US has decided it is better then everyone else and it should be the one telling everyone else what to do. The US makes no apologies for this attitude.
So, since the US has no intention of being a team player the world is doing what it feels is needed to reign in American arrogance and power. It will be the way America reacts that will bring about a collapse or not.
Quote:
The biggest fear the world has right now is that we're not going to buy their stuff.
What good does it do the world if the US buys what the world sells but doesn't pay for it? The biggest fear now is that the world will be stuck with a bunch of worthless green paper. What the world wants to see is the end of dollar hegemony so businesses don't have to rely solely on one customer. If one isn't buying, someone else is. That is the way it should be and what I believe the world is working towards, even if it is a short term painful transition.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1647 Location: Davis, California
Posted: Sun Dec 19, 2004 4:58 pm Post subject:
The collapse of the US would be the first step towards a sustainable society.
Other countries SHOULD find out that if they make worthless techno-babble, only the US will eat it up. If that is gone, so be it. The rest of the world can do science and mathematics and crap without the US. An economy based on needs and information (true information) could prosper just fine without the US.
The world thinks that the US is necessary for economy, she is the crutch that the world thinks it needs to suceed, but if they learn to walk again, I think the US will be in a lot of trouble. _________________ Joseph Stalin "It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
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