Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 5:30 pm Post subject: Re: Let the layoffs begin
LoneSnark wrote:
mark, in 1800 everyone the world over was desperately poor.
As of 2000 a billion of us have escaped desperate poverty and are now rich. Meanwhile, most of us are still desperately poor. So, who is exploiting whom?
What you fail to realize is that wealth cannot be stollen. The west is not rich because others are poor; the west is rich because the west is rich. As I understand it, if the rest of the world joined us in prosperity those living in the west would become even richer, as technology and productivity (the source of wealth) enjoy positive feedbacks.
Think back: A rich Japan brought Americans cheap fuel efficient cars. A rich South Korea brought Americans cheap electronics. A rich China is bringing Americans cheap consumer goods. What good has ever come from poverty stricken Africa? Nothing we would not still have with a rich Africa.
I think a better argument is that the wealth of the West is built on the raw materials and cheap labor of the rest of the world. You could'nt buy jeans at 10 bucks a piece at walmart if someone in China was not willing to sweat 2 hours for $2 making it. The 3rd world has the resources and the labor but they are unable to use it to get wealthy; but yes, that is not the fault of the west.
Your argument is partly right as well; if the west hadn't pulled itself out of poverty with capitalism; it is probably likely the entire world would still be languishing in povertly like in the 1800's. But Mark is right in that the West and the 3rd world cannot be rich together. Infact the current convergence of crises we are seeing now is largely because parts of the 3rd world namely India and China are lifting themselves out of poverty and attempting to join the west.
That would seem impossible with the resources we have on this planet; not to mention the strain on our ecosystems.
Human society, no matter the economic system, has always been organized on a pyramid scheme; with an elite feeding off the base. Capitalism only succeeded (perhaps temporarily it seems) in making top of the pyramid a lot bigger than before. But it is still needs a base to feed off on.
The party I think might well last most of our lifetimes; the ones footing the bill; much more than the 3rd world today, will probably be all our descendants _________________ I play the cards I'm dealt, though I sometimes bluff.
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 999 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 5:56 pm Post subject: Re: Let the layoffs begin
MrBill wrote:
It is called living-up to and beyond your means and it is not a failure of the market. More like a personal shortcoming.
Economic models develop as a result of energetic inputs. Capitalism is a direct response to high energy inputs. The resulting system encourages competition, rapid growth, and waste.
Living beyond your means is a direct result of the successional model called capitalism. Capitalism is not sustainable unless the high energy inputs are sustained. The market fails when resource availability changes, and morphs into something else. That is what is happening now, in a very dramatic fashion. To blame economic collapse because of peak oil on personal shortcoming is like blaming your tomato plant for winter. _________________ "When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." --Sinclair Lewis
Joined: Jun 20, 2007 Posts: 521 Location: USS Poland
Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 9:49 pm Post subject: Re: Let the layoffs begin
LoneSnark wrote:
Think back: A rich Japan brought Americans cheap fuel efficient cars. A rich South Korea brought Americans cheap electronics. A rich China is bringing Americans cheap consumer goods. What good has ever come from poverty stricken Africa? Nothing we would not still have with a rich Africa.
Raw materials:
bauxite
phosphorus
oil
diamonds
graphite
columbite
list goes on, in fact Africa is the richest continent.
Natural wealth:
fish
wood
And you mean what good has ever came? I think many resources came from there
Free market feeds with the idea that it can improve condition of all people, but this idea to be real needs a perpetual neverending growth. _________________ The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
Our system brings rewards to all,
At least to all who matter.
Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:10 pm Post subject: Re: Let the layoffs begin
Alcassin, to reitterate, all the resources you list would still be exports of these poor countries if they were rich, just as Australia and the U.S. are major sources of raw materials for Asia and yet still classify as 'rich'. Depending on the means available, the resources you mention might even be cheaper if poor countries could instead use modern capital intensive means of production.
Quote:
I think a better argument is that the wealth of the West is built on the raw materials and cheap labor of the rest of the world. You could'nt buy jeans at 10 bucks a piece at walmart if someone in China was not willing to sweat 2 hours for $2 making it.
You are obviously right about the jeans. If jeans could be made cheaper elsewhere they would be. But I suspect jeans could still be had at, say, 11 bucks a pair being mass-produced by machine in Alabama. I worked in the automation business, I assure you someone has already designed the machines to do it; they are watching wages grow steadily in China and within the decade they will help some textile manufacturer lay off half his workforce. This is what is called economic progress, and it is how we get rich.
Quote:
Human society, no matter the economic system, has always been organized on a pyramid scheme; with an elite feeding off the base. Capitalism only succeeded (perhaps temporarily it seems) in making top of the pyramid a lot bigger than before. But it is still needs a base to feed off on.
I have seen no evidence to defend such a theory. Mankind is made up of lots of individuals with radically different goals in life. This means some will be poor and some will be rich. But we do not need poor people; if a plague killed all the poor tomorrow markets would adjust, entrepreneurs would apply their skills and the economy would adjust to eliminate the need for low wage jobs. Human nature being what it is we would once again have poor people within a generation, but I digress.
Joined: Jun 20, 2007 Posts: 521 Location: USS Poland
Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:23 pm Post subject: Re: Let the layoffs begin
LoneSnark wrote:
Alcassin, to reitterate, all the resources you list would still be exports of these poor countries if they were rich, just as Australia and the U.S. are major sources of raw materials for Asia and yet still classify as 'rich'. Depending on the means available, the resources you mention might even be cheaper if poor countries could instead use modern capital intensive means of production.
Nope, Do you know where Europe fish?
In coast of Africa, because we have overfished our stocks
So it's not capital intensive as a solution, we have just overconsumed our natural wealth with our capital intensive technology.
You couldn't do that with canoes.
Second argument - "they could use capital intensive means of production" is invalid from the stand of limited resources to do so. I don't believe China will ever have 1 billion cars... If they were using capital intensive means of production fuel for this would be over, and other resources would disappear at faster rate.
Quote:
This is what is called economic progress, and it is how we get rich.
Sure, if resource base which is below the economy is still abundant. _________________ The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
Our system brings rewards to all,
At least to all who matter.
Last edited by Alcassin on Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:28 am; edited 2 times in total
Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:58 pm Post subject: Re: Let the layoffs begin
LoneShark;
If the US could maintain its current standard of living with only its own resources; that means no imported oil (domestic is hardly about 8 mbd), no natural gas from Canada and no trade deficit; then I might start taking you seriously. Until then I am putting you down as a cornucopian
I agree some, perhaps a lot of the wealth of the West is because of industrialization, entrepreneur skill and effective use of domestic resources. But a lot of it depends on raw materials that come from the rest of the world; which wouldn't be available if the third world (or even just part of it) grew rich or a crucial resource goes into decline. How does Peak Oil and resource depletion fit into your world view? The market will provide?
I think its obviously clear that we DONT have the resources for the entire world to live at the western standard of living. _________________ I play the cards I'm dealt, though I sometimes bluff.
Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 1:14 am Post subject: Re: Let the layoffs begin
Iaato wrote:
Living beyond your means is a direct result of the successional model called capitalism. Capitalism is not sustainable unless the high energy inputs are sustained. The market fails when resource availability changes, and morphs into something else. That is what is happening now, in a very dramatic fashion.
Living beyond our means in the states has only become widespread recently. Capitalism, or better yet our current market since we sure as hell aren't capitalistic in any strict sense, is just a system, and as such can be manipulated according to what members of that system want. Recently it has become as common in the states to establish a need for an item as has been to provide an item for a need. Instead of designing an auto for an individual's needs, we see manufacturers shaping what the consumer views as a need in order to sell a more profitable vehicle. Our economic system, like any other system (religious, nationalistic, familial, etc...), can be used to equitably benefit those who participate, or inequitably benefit a small group within those who participate, and everything in between. Guess where it's been headed recently...
Iaato wrote:
To blame economic collapse because of peak oil on personal shortcoming is like blaming your tomato plant for winter.
To blame economic collapse because of greed on peak oil is like blaming your tomato plant for winter.
We have no inherent need (unless of course you consider spending excessively with little quantifiable positive return on transportation a need) for more energy from petroleum given how much we waste, and the availability of other sources. Otoh we do have a need for wealth/power/control, and encouraging excessive consumption in order to garner excessive profit facilitates this. _________________
Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 1:41 am Post subject: Re: Let the layoffs begin
LoneSnark wrote:
Alcassin, to reitterate, all the resources you list would still be exports of these poor countries if they were rich, just as Australia and the U.S. are major sources of raw materials for Asia and yet still classify as 'rich'. Depending on the means available, the resources you mention might even be cheaper if poor countries could instead use modern capital intensive means of production.
NO --> commodities would be more $$$ not cheaper
If Africa was rich, they would be consuming commodities at a much greater rate. This would increase the demand for commodities and drive up the price. "Chindia" is a perfect example of this. This is one of the major causes for oil hitting the $100 mark. How much would oil be right now if Africa was rich? hmmm --> we would of hit PO a long time ago.
Joined: Jun 20, 2007 Posts: 521 Location: USS Poland
Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:08 am Post subject: Re: Let the layoffs begin
yesplease wrote:
cube wrote:
If Africa was rich, they would be consuming commodities at a much greater rate.
There's no rule stating the richer a country is the more commodities it must consume AFAIK.
Rich country in GDP:
GDP = consumption + investment + (government spending) + (exports − imports), or, GDP = C + I + G + (X-M). Governemnt spends on consumption or investment, export netto is investment and consumption but abroad.
Economy is build on investment and consumption, the more you consume the richer you are. This is in LoneSnark's words "economic progress".
Now they can be "rich" - culturally or spiritually or whatever non-materialist measure you take. Economically rich means more products are sold - goods and services... _________________ The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
Our system brings rewards to all,
At least to all who matter.
Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 4:07 am Post subject: Re: Let the layoffs begin
Cube RE: your photo. I guess that African American family can be mighty glad that their ancestors were patriated to Milwaukee and not left behind in Mali? ; - )
Venky, Mark, Iaato and the rest. All good opinions. We have to respect a diversity of views here on peak oil dot com. No one has all the answers much less all the right ones.
The problem in my opinion is that posters are confusing wealth creation and higher living standards with conspicuous consumption. They are not the same.
There is no reason why Africa could not be made up of middle income countries with standards of living approaching central-eastern Europe now that those countries are joining the EU. As someone mentioned, they certainly have the natural resources. And the labor I would hasten to add.
There is no reason why except BIC Syndrome TM - Bureacracy, Incompetence and Corruption - by African leaders. Let's call a spade a spade.
I never hear anyone here complaining that the United States used up its oil reserves first? Given that oil is now $90 a barrel how much more could they have earned had they used everyone else's oil first? Ditto for copper. No one here complains that the USA is exporting its copper to China. Like the US and oil, China uses 25% of the world's copper, but sits on just 3% of its supply. No one is complaining that China is robbing America of its economic future.
The fact is that resources were created by God to be used. They are worthless in the ground. Europeans were only able to use resources that they discovered or transplanted elsewhere in the undeveloped world because they had the knowledge and where with all to do exactly that. Otherwise Malaysia would not have a palm oil industry today.
I would not defend the excesses or brutality of Colonialism, but without this period of early globalization all those outside of Europe would most certainly be a lot poorer with lower living standards than today.
Remember those OXFAM and CARE commercials from the 1960s and 70s? Children in rags? Now watch those same commercials or other documentaries and they are not only wearing the latest fashions - compliments of cheap garments made in China no doubt - but they are often using mobile telephones, watching TV, riding motor scooters and using air conditioning. That may be an exageration, but barely. Most famines today are state sponsored or the result of civil wars.
Billions have pulled themselves out of poverty. The battle against poverty would already be won if more billions had not been born to take their place. Had we maintained a constant population of no more than three billion then we would have far fewer problems today. But we did not. We are now 6.5 billion on our way to 9-10 billion by around 2050. So is that the fault of the market economy?
But to confuse wealth creation and higher living standards - made possible by the market economy - with conspicuous consumption is just wrong in my opinion. We all have the choice what we do with our wealth. As a society we can choose to use that wealth to save or improve our environment or otherwise make life on this planet better for everyone.
Actually along with over-population it is poverty and low living standards that are the enemy of the environment. Take but one example. Clean burning coal technology costs only about 25% more to build, but we (collectively) resist building clean coal plants because we are unwilling to pay more for electricity and we are afraid that Chindia will undercut us in price using older, dirtier technology. If Chindia were richer they might also be willing to adapt the latest, cleanest technology.
I do not know about you, but if you want to move to Africa and eat bugs, go ahead. While you are there you will see bureacracy, incompetence and corruption. And those who benefit from such practices will be just as wasteful in their conspicuous consumption as anyone in the west. You are not simply lucky to be born in the west, but your grandparents and great-grandparents made it possible. It is up to you to leave your children and grandchildren the same fortunate luck! ; - )
P.S. RE $100 oil. The price of crude today is 61 euros. The USD used to be stronger than the EUR. Near 0.8230. If that currency relationship held until today then crude in US dollars would be $50 instead of near $100. That is playing tricks with the numbers, but so is just throwing out a round number like $100 out of context. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 5:06 am Post subject: Re: Let the layoffs begin
Heh. Ditch diggers & janitors get pizza & beer while overseas engineers & scientists starve. _________________ People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement, cannibalism, & zombie invasions.
Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 5:34 am Post subject: Re: Let the layoffs begin
heroineworshipper wrote:
Heh. Ditch diggers & janitors get pizza & beer while overseas engineers & scientists starve.
I have dug ditches and cleaned toilets for a job. There is no job that cannot be done properly and there is pride in that alone. But I do not understand the point about overseas engineers and scientists starving? Sorry. There is a worldwide shortage of engineers and who is starving? _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 9:49 am Post subject: Re: Let the layoffs begin
Quote:
If Africa was rich, they would be consuming commodities at a much greater rate. This would increase the demand for commodities and drive up the price. "Chindia" is a perfect example of this. This is one of the major causes for oil hitting the $100 mark. How much would oil be right now if Africa was rich? hmmm --> we would of hit PO a long time ago.
But there is a major difference between China/India and Africa. By all accounts, Africa is awash in natural resources, most of which are untapped today because they are poor. By all accounts, India and China are resource poor just like mainland Europe; what they have are billions of people.
Africa is filled with resources, everything from oil to bauxite to diamonds but is comparatively lightly populated, with 21% of the world's land area and only 14% of the world's population. So, like Australia, a rich Africa would be a net resource exporter in my opinion, going a long way to supply China and India with what they need.
As I understand it, the inner Chad region of Africa has a lot of oil, plenty to fuel a rich Africa and export even more oil than is already being exported.
Not that any of this is relevant. Africa is poor and will remain so barring external invasion.
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