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Eli
Fusion
Joined: Jun 18, 2005
Posts: 3909
Location: In a van down by the river
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 Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 4:52 pm Post subject: Re: Stock Markets in freefall |
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He is right.
This is just the beginning we really haven't seen anything yet but a fairly typical correction so far.
The cliff is further out there yet, Citi needs to file Bankruptcy or Country Wide. There deal with BOA is most likely not going to go through. |
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Tyler_JC
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Joined: Sep 25, 2004
Posts: 4543
Location: Boston, MA
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 5:01 pm Post subject: Re: Stock Markets in freefall |
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| UncoveringTruths wrote: |
Are you trying to convince yourself of something? Even when the stock market tries to make a comeback oil will be over a $100 a barrel in a microsecond beating it back down. So I see us making a few blips down one blip up so on and so forth forever or until we might find a new liquid fuels energy source. |
I'm not trying to convince myself of anything.
I'm just pointing out that a 10% correction is not the end of the world.
Declaring that THE MARKETS ARE COLLAPSING!!! every time we see a 200 point dip in the Dow reminds me of the little boy who cried wolf.
The Dow fell by more than 10% in one day Black Tuesday (1929 crash) but this "crash" is over the course of several months. I'd call that an orderly decline, not a crash much less a "free fall".
Don't get me wrong, it's going to get worse before it gets better.
In my opinion, the difference between the doomers and the non-doomers is that the doomers don't believe it will EVER get better.
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"www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse." |
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shortonoil
Fission
Joined: Dec 02, 2004
Posts: 2684
Location: VA USA
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 5:03 pm Post subject: Re: Stock Markets in freefall |
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| Quote: | | Gotta look at the big picture folks. |
The SWFs appear to be rapidly leaving the premises. Without their constant stream of cash, the $800 billion per year current account deficit will bankrupt the US monetary/financial system. In short, the FED now has no way of injecting money into the private sector. All money will have to come through the federal government’s issuance of T-bills, which will drive government debt and inflation into the stratosphere. This will further retard foreign investment inflows and pound the green back.
Central banks can only support the US for a very short period. To continue to do so will seriously imperil their own economies. With the bond market now broken, we are in for a long strange ride; collapsing asset evaluations and skyrocketing commodity prices. This will be accompanied by falling wages and employment.
With the consumer now on the ropes, 70% of the US financial backbone is severed. The asset based economy and its debt based fiat currency are failing rapidly!
This sort of sums up the "big picture". |
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roccman
Peak Oil Prophet
Joined: Apr 27, 2007
Posts: 4353
Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 5:14 pm Post subject: Re: Stock Markets in freefall |
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| shortonoil wrote: | | Quote: | | Gotta look at the big picture folks. |
The SWFs appear to be rapidly leaving the premises. Without their constant stream of cash, the $800 billion per year current account deficit will bankrupt the US monetary/financial system. In short, the FED now has no way of injecting money into the private sector. All money will have to come through the federal government’s issuance of T-bills, which will drive government debt and inflation into the stratosphere. This will further retard foreign investment inflows and pound the green back.
Central banks can only support the US for a very short period. To continue to do so will seriously imperil their own economies. With the bond market now broken, we are in for a long strange ride; collapsing asset evaluations and skyrocketing commodity prices. This will be accompanied by falling wages and employment.
With the consumer now on the ropes, 70% of the US financial backbone is severed. The asset based economy and its debt based fiat currency are failing rapidly!
This sort of sums up the "big picture". |
Nice farking post!!!!!
And spot on.
Got gold...food...bunker...??
_________________
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
We are going back to roccland - me |
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lateStarter
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Apr 06, 2005
Posts: 999
Location: 38 km west of Warsaw, Poland
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 5:17 pm Post subject: Re: Stock Markets in freefall |
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| Tyler_JC wrote: | | UncoveringTruths wrote: |
Are you trying to convince yourself of something? Even when the stock market tries to make a comeback oil will be over a $100 a barrel in a microsecond beating it back down. So I see us making a few blips down one blip up so on and so forth forever or until we might find a new liquid fuels energy source. |
I'm not trying to convince myself of anything.
I'm just pointing out that a 10% correction is not the end of the world.
Declaring that THE MARKETS ARE COLLAPSING!!! every time we see a 200 point dip in the Dow reminds me of the little boy who cried wolf.
The Dow fell by more than 10% in one day Black Tuesday (1929 crash) but this "crash" is over the course of several months. I'd call that an orderly decline, not a crash much less a "free fall".
Don't get me wrong, it's going to get worse before it gets better.
In my opinion, the difference between the doomers and the non-doomers is that the doomers don't believe it will EVER get better. |
Please define your vision of 'better'
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Remember, with globalisation "everyone is a winner" in the "race to the bottom". - rogerhb
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. A.C. Clarke |
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roccman
Peak Oil Prophet
Joined: Apr 27, 2007
Posts: 4353
Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 5:18 pm Post subject: Re: Stock Markets in freefall |
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| Tyler_JC wrote: |
Don't get me wrong, it's going to get worse before it gets better.
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You always add this weak qualifier in your posts.
You can bank on me rubbing this crash and end of the world all up in your face when it happens...the I TOLD YOU SO is in the tube and my finger is on the red button Tyler!
_________________
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
We are going back to roccland - me |
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steam_cannon
Expert
Joined: Dec 28, 2006
Posts: 2467
Location: MA
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 5:23 pm Post subject: Re: Stock Markets in freefall |
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| Tyler_JC wrote: | Gotta look at the big picture folks.
The Dow lost nearly 90% of its value between 1929 and 1932.
The S&P, a better measure of the value of the stock market, declined by about 40% during the dot-com collapse.
We are no where close to those levels.
A 2% fall in one day is hardly a "free fall" and a 10% correction over the course of a few months is neither unusual nor unexpected.
The hyperbole on this website harms our credibility. (No offense to the poster who made this thread, I'm just trying to get people to focus on the big picture) |
Good to point out the big picture, this is only one day.
A few links about the state of the markets, opinions are welcome...
Papa Roach - Getting Away With Murder
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVuUfTNFNhk |
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Heineken
Expert
Joined: Sep 14, 2004
Posts: 6475
Location: Rural Virginia
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 5:32 pm Post subject: Re: Stock Markets in freefall |
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Tyler, I have two words for you: "paradigm shift."
One is coming.
I'd be very surprised if there is a stock market at all by the time you're my age. Or at least anything remotely resembling the current setup.
How can there be a stock market after we enter the next stage, one of permanent economic contraction? There will be no use for one.
_________________
"Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother |
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eastbay
Moderator
Joined: Dec 18, 2004
Posts: 4438
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 6:11 pm Post subject: Re: Stock Markets in freefall |
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I'd be very surprised if there is a stock market at all by the time you're my age. Or at least anything remotely resembling the current setup.
How can there be a stock market after we enter the next stage, one of permanent economic contraction? There will be no use for one.
Oh man, I agree 100% with that!!!
I'm not sure how old Tyler is, but it sounds like he's a young student... so by the time he's my age it's doubtful the political entity we call 'USA' will still exist. Investments in stocks should be considered 'short-term' and 'medium-term'... not 'long-term'.
The ancient knowledge that, 'nations are unstable' will be made clear to all.
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Got Dharma?
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha |
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Starvid
Fission
Joined: Feb 20, 2005
Posts: 2790
Location: Uppsala, Sweden
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 6:17 pm Post subject: Re: Stock Markets in freefall |
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| Heineken wrote: | Tyler, I have two words for you: "paradigm shift."
One is coming.
I'd be very surprised if there is a stock market at all by the time you're my age. Or at least anything remotely resembling the current setup.
How can there be a stock market after we enter the next stage, one of permanent economic contraction? There will be no use for one. |
"This time it's different." 
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Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis. |
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TheTurtle
Fission
Joined: May 14, 2005
Posts: 2123
Location: Along the banks of the muddy Mississippi
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 6:27 pm Post subject: Re: Stock Markets in freefall |
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| Heineken wrote: | Tyler, I have two words for you: "paradigm shift."
One is coming.
I'd be very surprised if there is a stock market at all by the time you're my age. Or at least anything remotely resembling the current setup.
How can there be a stock market after we enter the next stage, one of permanent economic contraction? There will be no use for one. |
I love you, Heineken. 
(And that marks my 2000th post.  I was a bit apprehensive about how I was going to use it. Thanks for making it easy.)
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“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry) |
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strider3700
Fission
Joined: Apr 17, 2005
Posts: 2723
Location: Vancouver Island
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 6:54 pm Post subject: Re: Stock Markets in freefall |
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As much as I love to be a doomer and hear about the end of the world I think I'll wait until MrBill posts about seeing the end of the financial world as we know it before I declare the stock market dead.
We've seen a lot of volatility lately. About all I can say is it's tending slowly lower
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shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts |
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roccman
Peak Oil Prophet
Joined: Apr 27, 2007
Posts: 4353
Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 7:14 pm Post subject: Stock Market Crash Tomorrow |
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unless Bendover Ben cuts the snot out of rates!
http://tickervideo.org/eod-0115/eod-0115.html
_________________
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
We are going back to roccland - me |
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Revi
Fusion
Joined: Apr 25, 2005
Posts: 3255
Location: Maine
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 7:44 pm Post subject: Re: Stock Markets in freefall |
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Great... I don't know if this is the big crash, but 277 points is painful. What happened to all that money? Even precious metals are down. Are investors changing their stocks into cash? What for? I don't understand this one. Do they know something we don't? Is there something happening we don't know?
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Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings. |
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sittinguy
Heavy Crude
Joined: Sep 07, 2007
Posts: 344
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 8:19 pm Post subject: Re: Stock Market Crash Tomorrow |
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Its about time. I don't know whats took so long.
Bring on the doooooom |
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