We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 3:08 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
Update on the 401k check mess.
Our bank who has the depsoited check, says they don't know when it will clear. I said, I'll pay for a call to Citibank to find out. My bank called back and said Citi won't tell them anything because (Ihad forgotten that the fund manager changed from Putnam to Mercer last year), Mercer had a privacy hold on info, so Citi wasn't allowed to tell them anything.
My bank gave me a copy of the check, and a phone no. at Citi. My wife called Citi and after a runaround of a couple different phone no's., was told the same "privacy" story. My wife got the person's name and no., and offered to give it to our local TV station to explore the ramifications.
My wife, who owned the account, is now trying to contact Mercer to determine if the check has cleared. I don't yet know the outcome, but I know my wife. This mess will either get cleared up to her satisfaction, or the mess will expand beyond the wildest nightmares of all parties concerned.
All we want to know is, are the funds really there in our bank, or not?
Earlier today, I contacted our other bank that has our business account, and asked how do I find out when exactly, that a check has cleared. They told me that the clearing process normally takes about 2 weeks, HOWEVER, no one will commit to that, because the issuing bank has up to 60 days to clear their books, and in some case that I didn't understand, could take up to 2 YEARS. This bank comptroller told me that to avoid the mess, have the money wired to our bank. This will incur a fee of , about $25, but is probably worth it for the peace of mind.
Okay, 10 minutes later: Just now, my wife talked to Mercer, who assured her, and our local bank, that Citi had cleared the check. So, we do have the money.
The whole schema of entities involved here could lock up like a frozen lake, if a major glitch hits the bank system. Since it is all still functioning, we could have spent the money (we're gonna buy solar stuff) and had a problem later, which would fall back down the pipe from Mercer to Citi to our bank and land in our account as an overdraw!
I see no reason what ever to trust this bunch. My own business banker's advice was, "have them wire you the money, and get it in CASH!" Nuff said.
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 737 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 3:21 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
patience wrote:
I see no reason what ever to trust this bunch. My own business banker's advice was, "have them wire you the money, and get it in CASH!" Nuff said.
Thanks for the update; I had a similar experience two weeks ago when I wanted to move a large chunk of money to my bank. Without thinking, I did an electronic bank transfer rather than a wire. I found out that there is a big difference. If you wire, the money is there instantly. A bank transfer may go through instantly, but the receiving bank has the option to delay you for a number of days, if they want. So make sure you use a wire and not an ACH transfer if time is of the essence, or if you have a bank that likes to play games with your money.
And do things like moving large chunks of money around before things get really squirrelly with the banks (i.e. do it now). _________________ "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." --Patrick Henry
Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 3:35 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
Addendum: My wife believes that, from to the timing of the events, Citi probably didn't clear the check until she called them, and stayed on them like a coat of paint.... Food for thought, the squeaky wheel gets the oil theory.
Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 4:04 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
Okay Pops...what I did to survive a financial meltdown, or one of the things, anyway.
I'm interested in Patience's post because I had similar difficulties having money wired, yes, wired out of the US into my Canadian account.
Wiring of funds, out of the country,apparently, has to go through the Bank of America, and that's where the funds stalled out. For some reason the Bank could not wire them into Canada...however that didn't stop them from sitting on the funds for 2 weeks, while we twisted in the wind and the Canadian dollar strengthened against the American. Their foot dragging cost us close to 2,000.00.
And here again is a case, like Patience's experience, where we had to scream bloody murder to the intermediate bank that initiated the transfer, before we got any action.
We ended up getting a check from the escrow company for the property we'd sold through the mail! The escrow company advised us to use govt post, as Fed Ex and other courier companies have had a flurry of missing documents and parcels lately! That's another thing that put my teeth positively on edge.
We sold this little property in the U.S, because we were worried about the devaluation of the American dollar against the Canadian, we live in Canada.
I was also very worried about an institution of capital flight law. It occurred to me, that, if tshtf, even if we could sell this American property we might be unable get the money out of the U.S. Our experience seemed like an actual foreshadowing of that possibility.
So my advice....if you are holding real estate out of your own country and wish to sell, it's probably best to DO IT NOW, as I can see a confluence of political problems, economic problems and out and out fraud coalescing in a terrible way.
Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 4:19 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
One man's advice on what to do with your overpriced home that is sinking in value and taking you with it - walk away!
Quote:
You had about three hours yesterday to capture that lower mortgage rate.
If you didn't lock yesterday, tough crap - you missed it.
And if The Fed - and Congress - doesn't listen to the Bond Market and stop this stupidity government debt costs will continue to skyrocket and drag private debt costs higher, instead of the other way around, and will ultimately force the government to contract itself due to an inability to meet its interest obligations.
You only think The Fed controls interest rates.
It doesn't, and this is what the debt markets do when they get pissed off at government stupidity.
You want to know what I think homeowners who are upside down ought to do after being RAMMED by the politicians today and Ben Bernanke on Turesday?
After seeing Ben Bernanke AND our government DRIVE UP, RATHER THAN DOWN, DEBT COSTS, DIRECTLY AND INDIRECTLY SCREWING MORE AND MORE PEOPLE?
They should walk away. Send in the keys. Fark it. Yes, your credit will be trashed for 7 years. So what?
Tell the bank to get Fark.
Today we had reported the first ANNUAL decline in home prices since the statistics began in the 1960s, and in all probability, since The Depression!
THIS IS NOT OVER.
House prices will continue to decline for the next TWO TO THREE YEARS, and if you're underwater NOW, you're going to be MORE UNDERWATER in a couple more years.
YOU WILL BE A DEBT SLAVE UNLESS YOU ACT TO STOP IT!
CUT YOUR LOSSES! Screw it. Check with an attorney to see if you can have other assets attached (in MANY states the answer is "no" on a purchase money mortgage) and tell the people who have screwed you - and us - to get Fark.
You can either default the debt NOW, or LATER, after throwing even more money down the rathole. But either way, as the economy contracts and your job comes under stress, if you're upside down you're screwed.
Better to take the pain RIGHT NOW and cut off a finger rather than losing an entire LEG in a year or two!
Hell, even Cramer recommended doing this ON NATIONAL TELEVISION a couple of months ago!
Oh, and guess what - the mainstream press is even talking about it! Read all about it right here!
LISTEN UP FOLKS: YOU HAVE EVERY RIGHT TO TAKE ANY LEGAL ACTION YOU WISH. Analyze this as a pure BUSINESS DECISION, talk to an attorney, and then ACT.
SAVE YOURSELF.
(Note: You MUST speak to an attorney before attempting any of this and get LEGAL ADVICE BEFORE YOU ACT. I ain't a lawyer and don't play one on the net, and even if I was, its not legal to provide legal advice over the Internet! If you screw this up it will ruin your life. The law protects you but only if you follow it.)
As this deflation of the monetary base gains steam if you do not act you will have thrown away valuable money you could have otherwise held on to. Go rent a place first - so you pass the credit check and dig yourself out of your personal housing hell!
Beware equity investors.
The short bus is busting at the seams.
Buy this rally? Oh hell no.
It won't take long before reality sets in.
This is a time to sit on your hands and patiently wait for the opportunity to throw darts at the quote page of the Wall Street Journal, then short whatever you hit.
Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 5:03 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
What we have done, trying to stay one jump ahead of the banking devils:
We front-ran any financial meltdown by cleaning out the retirement accounts, except for one stuck until age 65, which we put in US treasuries. Bought a new freezer and have it half full of meat. The rest is still on the hoof, but arranged for.
Filled the business stocks of consumables and retail sales goods, leaving the minimum in both business and personal checking accounts. We have drawn out cash for a year's (2 years or more, if we're careful) worth of expenses, stashed in a friend's safe and elsewhere. Stashed a lot of canned goods, canning equipment. Next year's garden seeds, fertilizer, and supplies are on hand, along with tools of all sorts. Those moves were to guard against bank system failure, and preserve capital in a neutral to deflationary time.
One daughter is forted up pretty well on her own, and is presently cleaning out our spare rooms in case her sister, or other family needs it. We have a self-reliant network of customers and lifelong friends that are dependable and offer a wide variety of skills and resources. We're 30 miles from a big city.
Knowing the state of our community pretty well from business dealings, and having secured the necessities, including minimum electrical needs and a stash of fuel, I'm looking for the next step.
That's all good, but I know better than to just get the popcorn ready for the show.
I need a better plan to deal with inflation, if that's the govt's choice of end game. I don't think gold is right for us, preferring something more liquid in the boonies. I've considered going maybe 30% of cash into junk US silver coins, because they have never been confiscated, and are recognized more widely here than gold. I'd like to hear ideas on inflation hedges, maybe tradeable goods?
Joined: Sep 19, 2007 Posts: 887 Location: Land of the Tongva tribe
Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 6:08 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
For the last 2 weeks I have slowly been moving money into all sectors of the markets except commodities. Many companies are being dragged down by all the bad news while nothing is wrong. Some companies are even reporting great earnings, HON, MOT, etc...
I think those who are pulling their money out right now will miss out on a huge opportunity and be taking big losses at the same time.
joeltrout _________________ ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people.
Joined: Oct 16, 2004 Posts: 1185 Location: Brisbane, Australia
Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 7:52 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
I'm from Australia and so am removed from the American crisis, but I have taken some precautions. I expect Australian financial climate (along with the rest of the world) to be affected somewhat by an American crash, so I have invested about 2/3 of my small savings in gold/silver to take advantage of the coming PM bubble. I've prepaid my rent a couple of months ahead and plan to stay ahead for a while and I've withdrawn enough spending cash for a couple of months and will keep it topped up. I'm not 'expecting' much of a banking crisis here in Ausy, but Macquarrie was found to be over-'exposed' to the mortgage crisis in US and I'm not sure how vulnerable the Credit Union I keep my money in actually is, so I'm giving myself some wriggle room, just in case. Oh and I keep a month or so of staples on hand in the kitchen, and just top up on fresh stuff each week or so. _________________ Kind regards, Katkinkate
"The ultimate goal of farming is not the growing of crops,
but the cultivation and perfection of human beings."
Masanobu Fukuoka
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2003 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 10:05 am Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
Well, the rich are also being advised now to prepare for a meltdown. They are advised to buy remote farmland and stocking it with FOOD and other essentials, including guns. Same stuff we've been saying on this thread and this planning forum for years.
Barton Biggs has some offbeat advice for the rich: Insure yourself against war and disaster by buying a remote farm or ranch and stocking it with ``seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc.''
The ``etc.'' must mean guns.
``A few rounds over the approaching brigands' heads would probably be a compelling persuader that there are easier farms to pillage,'' he writes in his new book, ``Wealth, War and Wisdom.''
Biggs is no paranoid survivalist. He was chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley before leaving in 2003 to form hedge fund Traxis Partners. He doesn't lock and load until the last page of this smart look at how World War II warped share prices, gutted wealth and remains a warning to investors. His message: Listen to markets, learn from history and prepare for the worst.
On this board, we have all wondered what would happen when the public woke up to the reality of oil depletion and overconsumption, looks like we are close to finding out.
As they are telling the rich, PREPARE NOW!
If you have no money, GET FIT, START WALKING, START MOVING.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6338 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 3:00 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
seahorse wrote:
Well, the rich are also being advised now to prepare for a meltdown.
Wow, pretty interesting I’m thinking coming from Bloomberg.
Though not first person at least more interesting than some newswire headline.
some guy with enough Stuff to be quoted on Bloomberg wrote:
Over the long haul, though, markets display what James Surowiecki calls ``the wisdom of crowds.''
…
So the wealthy should prepare to ride out a disaster, be it a tsunami, a market meltdown or Islamic terrorists with a dirty bomb.
Could be those of us less than wealthy might think closely about what to do with the rebate our representatives are borrowing from our kids to give us in a few months? _________________ Make a plan and work it:
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