Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2256 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:06 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
And, the opinions that this is bad just keep coming:
seahorse wrote:
Since you guys want to attack Cramer, why don't you attack this guy as being depressed:
Quote:
"Everyone thinks they're looking at the cliff over Armageddon," said Ed Rombach, senior derivatives analyst at Thomson Financial. "If you think the write-downs have been bad so far, the next write-downs could be twice as big."
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 1009 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:15 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
seahorse wrote:
A trip flare just went off.
Thanks. I was wondering. It certainly sounded like you were taking the alarm to a new level. So it sounds like your personal experiences have helped to move the issue of economic collapse from an abstract concept to a sense of personal danger.
It'll be interesting to watch how different people are triggered by all of this. In some cases it will depend on the personality, and in some cases it will depend on the perception of threat.
This is important, because the impetus for desire to change is the same thing we are looking for with peak oil. When do people start to change their behaviors? When the abstract becomes personal, and mandates changes in the status quo, and not until then. Gas shortages, I guess. _________________ "When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." --Sinclair Lewis
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3319 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:31 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
OK, Seahorse and others help me understand this.
Lets just assume for a second that a person (me) is sitting ok on a storage of food. I could, if the job was lost and by some Washington magic or inaction able to stay in the house, eat. My kids would not be faced with malnutrition.
I come into some cash should I then:
A) pay of credit card debt, it is unsecured but it is also infinitely adjustable. The thinking being to get rid of that debt that could not be inflated out of.
B) pay off the home equity line. It has an adjustable rate and is secured to the house, but that rate has a ceiling. It can only get so high. In theory, at least, I might be able to surf that wave in the case of a meltdown.
C) Invest in homestead improvements. I could build a shelter in which I could buy hay while it is cheap and make my ability to be a producer of food a little more independent of outside inputs during the height of the inflationary spiral.
D) Other: Buy gold?
I'm proposing this as a way to try to dig deeper into the understanding of others. And, Well I will need to make some decisions over the next few months and my situation is not all that similar to the one detailed.
Cur _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
J.R.R. Tolkien
"The time has come for men to act like men; and for women, well, to act a lot more like men."
-Ma Cur
Joined: Oct 10, 2004 Posts: 476 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:32 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
That's great advice if you have a decent income, but what if you are a young (22) student? I have three payments of $500 for the next three months that is automatically deducted from my account. Ditto car payments, but those are only $180 a month. I usually have a least $1k in the bank b/t paychecks.
My whole life the past two years has been dedicated to learning a marketable skill so I could afford to make better preparations. If things crap out in the next few weeks and my school shuts down, there's really nothing I can do on a grocery clerk's wages. That's assuming I still have a job. _________________ "Abortion doctors aren't baby killers. They're life un-ruiners"
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2256 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:48 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
Hi Wisconsin,
I'm a firm believer in getting out of debt, bc that means freedom to make lots of choices.
On the other hand, always pay yourself first! So, if you already have a store of food, my next suggestion would be to start paying yourself, meaning, literally take 10% of what you get and don't do anything with it. I'm not even sure I would put it in a bank right now. Store up at least enough cash to live, hopefully 6 months to a year, not at your present level, but enough to get buy month to month.
As for debts, its all mathematical to me. If you can't pay them, don't. With may people, it becomes a matter of financial triage as your posts suggest, which lines of debt do you keep open and which do you walk away from. In the end, never pay your debts before providing for your families basic needs (that includes saving 10% for yourself out of all income).
What's the worse that happens when you walk away from a debt? The creditor gets a judgment and then tries to collect. Good luck to the creditor. There are a lot of worthless paper judgments. At best, they can try to garnish wages or bank accounts (thus, don't put money in a bank bc they may fail or your money may get garnished).
At some point in time, one can just file bankruptcy, whipe out the judgments or unpaid bills, and start all over. I have no moral dilema with people filing bankruptcy. There are good moral reasons for people to file bankrupty (feed your kids and family and quit paying credit card companies), good capitalist reasons why we have a bankruptcy system (to allow people to get out of debt and back in the business of making money and spending).
As you say, each persons situation will be different. Are they upside down in the home or not. If so, it takes awhile for someone to get booted out of a home. Further, locally anyway, even after people are foreclosed, the mortgage companies are sometimes letting the family stay in the home to take care of it, rent free, so that it doesn't get pillaged etc.
Also, some credit card companies are doing their best to avoid people filing bankrutpcy. A client just had a credit card company reduce the bill from $7,500 to $2,500 if he would pay steady payments until paid off. Always get these deals confirmed in writing, which they did.
However, during all this time, save money by saving it! Don't spend all your money living or on bills. Save some money somehow and stash it away.
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 1009 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 6:00 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
jesus_of_suburbia wrote:
My whole life the past two years has been dedicated to learning a marketable skill so I could afford to make better preparations. If things crap out in the next few weeks and my school shuts down, there's really nothing I can do on a grocery clerk's wages. That's assuming I still have a job.
Jesus, I'd take a deep breath in, and then let it out through pursed lips. And then do it again, quite a few times.
You're 22, without encumbrances except for a car and some minor school payments, it sounds like. Not married, no kids. No promised pension. What are you worrying about?
Make a 5 year plan, and tackle it. Live below your means, and save an emergency fund. Decide whether you need that car. If you need the car, you are probably living in the wrong place. Include living in a walkable or bikable community in your 5 year plan.
It's not going to crap out in the next month, or the next 6 months. At least not at the level you need to worry about.
When you start to see gas lines; that's when you need to start worrying, because that's when food security will become an issue. Until you see those gas lines, it's just a change in your pattern of living in quality of life. From your perspective, some banks are going to close, and there's going to be a lot of doom and gloom talk increasing in the MSM. But not much will change for you. Your school won't close. And some would argue that that changes we'll see may not necessarily be for the worse. _________________ "When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." --Sinclair Lewis
Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 6:01 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
Iaato, the water heated around me all through the past year. The Oh crap Moment came when I saw the convergence of the housing bubble bursting, with P.O., and climate change, last summer.
Wildly erratic weather and the drought in the US this year cost my farm related business, and wildfires theatened our daughter in San Diego. My wife's commuting costs doubled the past 2 years. My business costs have been rising at 10-12%/yr since 2003, rose 15-20% in 2007.
My "retail" customers have disappeared due to mfrg woes. Logging customers disappeared due housing woes, and truckers add fuel surcharges for deliveries. It had gotten personal. As I more closely tracked the economy, I saw the looming financial crash. Ag commodities price rise proved that climate change and P.O. are being felt.
Joe6P is oblivious to the details, beyond gas and grocery costs. The ARM's resetting got his attenton, but he's WAY behind the curve here. Dead meat, IMHO. Some folks just can't be helped. I don't have time to raise a lot of other people's kids anyway.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 7002 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 6:26 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
seahorse wrote:
Sorry Pops,
I'm looking back at the five rules thread and will see if I can add anything.
No apology necessary Horse.
But looking for trouble signs can get addictive - to the detriment of preparing for those same troubles.
Relating what each of us are doing; either proactive or reactive may be more instructive and more in keeping for this forum is what I am thinking.
You have a big presence on this board, and for good reason. I really want to see your 5 rules - whether they are different from what has been posted before or not, they will (I think) add your weight to making a change. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: Sep 02, 2005 Posts: 3046 Location: In a Nigerian compound surrounded by mighty dignataries
Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 6:41 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
roccman wrote:
I am formally retracting my vote that went to the housing thread for "thread of the year" to THIS ONE!!
I know - it is 08, but the way things are likely to play out...we will not have polls this time next year.
Great post SH!!
I agree, this is a heck of a thread.
Buy Land. Period.
I have $0 in stocks, 401K, or other investments. My nest egg is 100% agricultural and commercial properties accumulated over the las 14 years. I'm trying to dump my commerical property this year to buy cattle. _________________ Hair in my eyes like a highland steer, spring in my step like a white tailed deer. Hitch in my hip like an old sheep dog, puff up my chest like a big bull frog.-Corb Lund
Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 8:27 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
One of your most valuable assets will be character and attitude. I would recommend storing the basics first, ie; grains, rice, beans. And medical supplies like sutures, and dried anti-biotics. Here is a good site about food storage. http://waltonfeed.com/grain/life.html
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