Peak Oil and the Yankoslavian Dinar

chrispi · Tar Sands Joined: Aug 17, 2005 Posts: 80

I don't think that enough attention has been paid to the fact that we are printing ourselves out of the sub-prime mortgage mess by collapsing the value of the Yankoslavian dinar, ahem, the USD, and dinar/dollar collapse is the main culprit in the current rise in oil prices. Maybe, it will be bad enough that Americans will hoard the Canuckistani luni like they did in Barb Wire.

But enough of the joking. Seriously, if priced in €, oil has remained relatively stable. At the beginning of this decade oil was worth about €40. Now it is worth about €60. This may seem steep, but it amounts to only an average 6% annual inflation. Subtract the stated Eurozone annual inflation rate (which is probably too low) of 3% and you get a net 3% annual inflation in oil prices in real terms.

The real story of the decade has been dollar rot. Peak Oil may or may not have happened, but it will not be a discrete event; rather it will unfold over the course of decades. I am more scared of the inflection point following Peak Oil than the peak itself. The exponential function gets really scary after a few decades, even at 3%.

pstarr

Does Weird Al Yanklevitch sell his albums in Yankoslavian Dinars? or little 50's diners?
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Bas

The dollar hasn't fallen that far, and not that fast either. Inflation may be on the high side in historical terms for America, but not at all when you compare it to the countries you're obviously are refering to in which inflation would be low if it's 10%. oil was 20€ in 2000 btw, which translates to 20$ but that was when the dollar was at an historic high point; it really had no way to go but down at that point. I'm guessing but probably the long time average would be 1.25dollar for 1 Euro (going from the D-Mark), and it's now almost at 1.50dollar for 1€, comparable to historical lows against the Dmark.... Yankoslavian Dinar, very creative, my compliments Very Happy

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chrispi · Tar Sands Joined: Aug 17, 2005 Posts: 80

What has happened to the price of oil? It's now at $135/bbl, or about €90/bbl with $1.57/€. I'd love to get a graph of bbl/€ or bbl/Au, would clear up a lot of things.
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Vogelzang · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 03, 2008 Posts: 110

I own a lot of shares of Canadian oil and gas trusts. The Canucks are paying me about 30% more compared to 2 years ago in the form of dividends probably because of the falling US dollar. I get about $400 a month from Canada directly (shares of ERF, PVX, HTE and PWE), plus there's some Canadian oil and gas trusts in KYE and TYN that I own.

Nickel