How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 9:11 am Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
Heineken wrote:
As long as the emphasis continues to be on eleventh-hour techno miracles that are intended to maintain or even expand the current destructive regime . . .
WE'RE DOOMED.
As long as we refuse to discuss rational population reduction, powering down, localizing, restoring natural systems, and making personal sacrifices . . .
WE'RE DOOMED.
A new technology backed by real money, excellent minds and with huge commercial potential is much more achievable than the idealistic view that we can suddenly all just agree to get on i.e.
fort the first time in human history we actually collaborate as
a species.
Technology has always happened, completely reversing the
direction of history never has.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 9:19 am Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
SheikYarbhouti wrote:
moobradidi wrote:
It will be a crowded and not very pleasant plant- perhaps- but
we will survive.
So yeah, business as usual for quite a while to come.
So "Crowded and not very pleasant" is business as usual? Not where I come from...
It's crowded and unpleasant in many current cities yet most people
just get on with it. Better than peak oil alternatives.
You are proposing we run our cars on fuels synthesized from trash? That's fine, in a specific conext, but surely you understand where that leads us in the long run. The world has a fixed amount of usable material in it, y'know.
And the sun will die but for practical purposes no-one cares.
There are plenty of resources to recycle.
And I do hope the scienticians have figured out how to keep the untold quadrillions of bacteria that are powering our new world from mutating spontaneously. They'll organize themselves into the shape of a monkey wrench in no time!
It's a risk we have to take i'm afraid and most people will accept it
just as they accept test tube kids and other innovations and their
risks
But yeah, other than that - yay for us! We should start making plans to either make cremation mandatory or bury people standing up. Oh wait... those bodies are fuel!!
We are a long way from there. Raising 3rd world standards will
eventually stabilise the popn just as infant survival etc in the
first world has caused us to have zero pop growth.
Joined: Jun 23, 2007 Posts: 90 Location: Australia
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 9:19 am Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
It's called sarcasim.
The simple truth is that you showed no sign of repect, ie peak is over. The fact that so many people have altered there lives in an attempt to either help the planet or themselves says to me the there is a fair bit of conviction in regards to this topic.
I know i am right, for the laws of the universe are on my side, and a powerful friend it is.
You cant get something for nothing, simple as that, so you telling us some microbe is going to power the worlds economoy well, you get the picture.
ps. maybe we could breed trillions of chickens for biomas feedstock and keep them alive by feeding them chicken eggs. lol _________________ This story will be told for generations!
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6019 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 9:20 am Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
So, Moo, don't you think your techno pipe dream would require unprecedented human collaboration on a global scale?
If we're going to save ourselves from ourselves, the means of our salvation are already at hand. We simply need to learn to do less with less. Not reinvent the wheel. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 9:32 am Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
like_the_dinosaurs wrote:
It's called sarcasim.
you mean sarcasm right?
The simple truth is that you showed no sign of repect, ie peak is over.
I thought this was about discussion/debate? When was it a place to "respect" ideas? Is there some shrine here i missed?
The fact that so many people have altered there lives in an attempt to either help the planet or themselves says to me the there is a fair bit of conviction in regards to this topic.
We all act based on our convictions. I'm not stopping anyone.
Equally people in a democracy deserve the free exchange of ideas.
If people have acted on their convictions then they should be
substantial and defendable or at least not so fragile that
an alternative view is so disconcerting.
I know i am right, for the laws of the universe are on my side, and a powerful friend it is.
Which law is that? My law is that life always survives and there are
a lot of microbes out there who could give us a helping hand!
You cant get something for nothing, simple as that, so you telling us some microbe is going to power the worlds economoy well, you get the picture.
No i said that they potentially provide an alternative source of
fuel and new materials. They potentially provide unheard of
efficiencies in this regard. Your phrase is pretty ambiguous.
ps. maybe we could breed trillions of chickens for biomas feedstock and keep them alive by feeding them chicken eggs.
We have only tapped the readily usable resources of this planet.
There are plenty left Last i heard trees only needed soil, air and
water to produce biomass and O2. I think we could do with some
trees that grow in over salinated soils. Bit that's only an opinion
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 9:38 am Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
Heineken wrote:
So, Moo, don't you think your techno pipe dream would require unprecedented human collaboration on a global scale?
Nope why? Did the steam engine, or innoculation or antibiotics?
Innovations always get adopted if they work/make money.
If we're going to save ourselves from ourselves, the means of our salvation are already at hand. We simply need to learn to do less with less. Not reinvent the wheel.
True, we have always been our own worst enemies. You believe
we'll change. I can't see it. I can see some labs creating
breakthroughs that cannot be resisted in the long term.
We have a history of using technology to solve problems and
sustain pop levels that were unprecedented even 100 ys
ago. We have no history of global cooperation of the scale
needed for powerdown.
Joined: Oct 11, 2005 Posts: 407 Location: Arizona, USA
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 11:05 am Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
Isn't there a thermodynamic problem with attempting to derive your energy from your own waste?
The waste that our economy produces now is based on cheap energy that will be disappearing. You'll end up having to use more and more of the energy you derive to...what...create waste so you can get energy out of it? This argument is analogous to using waste steam and heat from power plants. Good luck powering a global economy with supposed leftovers. All you do is increase the overall efficiency of the primary process when you use waste for energy.
And trees do require more than just those things. They, like just about every other plant, require fertile soil. If you're taking out everything and returning nothing to the soil, you won't be growing much after a while.
I remember reading some number crunching regarding all the photosynthetic energy available from biomass in the entire United States. I recall the number being quite insufficient to continue anything close to business as usual. Anyone have a quote or link for that?
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 11:17 am Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
moobradidi wrote:
Raising 3rd world standards will eventually stabilise the popn just as infant survival etc in the first world has caused us to have zero pop growth.
It has been widely calculated that we would need somewhere along the lines of 3 extra earths to get everyone to 1st world living standards. Or, in the case you are proposing, 'the waste of 3 extra earths to be munched on by bacteria and converted into energy'
Windmills is right. In order to convert waste, the waste must first be created, and the only reason we churn out so much waste at the moment is because of cheap energy.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 11:42 am Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
moobradidi, you have failed to understand the reality of peak oil. Like so many others you are looking for solutions to the symptom. Let me state this more clearly. Peak oil is a symptom. Over-population is a symptom. Peak everything is a symptom. Those looking for solutions to symptoms are forever chasing rainbows. _________________ Who is John Galt?
Joined: Oct 11, 2005 Posts: 407 Location: Arizona, USA
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 1:58 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
I'd be amazed if anyone attempting to introduce a new technology, especially on such a large and ubiquitous sacle, would comprehensively investigate its impact on the planet in its entirety before implementing it. Instead, cars, power plants, airplanes, and practically every other technological offspring is introduced with the implicit assumption that it has no side effects, no drawbacks, and all of its impacts and ramifications are completely positive.
There has been a history of technological innovation simply as a need to attempt to remedy the negative effects of previous technological innovation.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 2:43 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
moobradidi wrote:
Quote:
It will be a crowded and not very pleasant plant- perhaps- but
we will survive.
Yes, that's precisely what most of us predict too. I wonder if you see it getting worse than some of the others. If the synthetic genome projects pan out for us then the suffering would perhaps be alleviated sooner but I wouldn't expect that it's going to come to our rescue soon enough. Obviously you agree by stating the above.
And then you wrote:
Quote:
So yeah, business as usual for quite a while to come.
Well that seems to be a contradiction of the rest of your post! First you give us the message that it's going to be crowded and not a very pleasant plan(e)t and then you say it's business as usual. Until you said that I was taking you seriously but that last comment leads me to believe that you just want to be contradictory on the subject and even that perhaps you are more interested in getting some attention than being helpful. Maybe you could explain why you contradict yourself? If it turns out that you just agree with everybody else on this forum then there's no need to bother paying attention to you. If you're somebody with some new ideas then you may be a breathe of fresh air.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 2:52 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
mark wrote:
moobradidi, you have failed to understand the reality of peak oil. Like so many others you are looking for solutions to the symptom. Let me state this more clearly. Peak oil is a symptom. Over-population is a symptom. Peak everything is a symptom. Those looking for solutions to symptoms are forever chasing rainbows.
He may be a little more optimistic than some of us Mark, but then on the other hand he's not denying peak oil in the least and that's good. So he's one of us regardless of whether he sees himself that way or not because he acknowledges that it's going to get tough when the oil starts to run out. Therefore I would say that we should welcome him to the club but ask him to substantiate some of his claims that there will be scientific discoveries that will come to our rescue befor the whole human population is dead and gone.
Personally I would agree with him on that extreme not taking place and have not found anything to debate on his optimism yet. After all, he does admit that things will get tough. He could be even more pessimistic in his views than the rest of us. A doom and gloomer perhaps?
And after all Mark, how seriously should we take a person who starts a thread which claims that peak oil is over and then admits that it's going to be tough or unpleasant on this plan(e)t?
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 3:05 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
I'm all for techno fixes if we use it as a gift of time to solve our root problem of overpopulation. But we will soon take any hail-mary pass for granted and continue with business as usual, not realizing that we have only delayed the inevitable collapse.
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