Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6245 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 1:34 am Post subject: Super Tuesday - And Beyond
We may see a "brokered" Democratic National Convention:
Obama and Hillary are neck and neck _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Last edited by Zardoz on Sat Feb 09, 2008 4:48 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 1:14 pm Post subject: Re: Super Tuesday
Tyler_JC wrote:
With all of the bad blood between those two candidates, I don't see a combined ticket as the most likely outcome.
Hillary might still pick Obama because she needs to motivate the younger voters and make sure to bring out the black vote.
But why does Obama need Hillary?
If Clinton squeaks out a victory, she might ask Obama to join the ticket. Obama would gain valuable White House experience as Veep which he could use for a later run. Obama might make the Hillary Administration a little more difficult to hate, since hating blacks is so out-of-fashion.
But it would not be wise for him to stick around more than one term if he expects to maintain his excitement factor with the public. Of course, it all depends on how Hillary's presidency goes...
I'd take it if I were he. I'd make it plain that I didn't want to simply be a funeral-attender. I'd want to take responsibility for certain administration projects. _________________ Documentary: "Oil, Smoke & Mirrors" Engineers Question 911
Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 2:44 pm Post subject: Re: Super Tuesday
Your winners:
McCain for president + Mitt for VP
Osama for president + Edwards for VP
If McCain won, he would be the first senator since Dick Nixon to do it, which makes Osama's tax increases + NASA cuts more likely.
Don't think Hillary would stand for any less than absolute power so she would probably back out of the VP slot. When Osama entered the race, Hillary punched a pillow so hard it turned into a diamond. _________________ People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement & cannibalism.
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6245 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 10:36 am Post subject: Re: Super Tuesday
The Democrats will probably go into the convention with neither having enough to clinch:
_________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4243 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:36 pm Post subject: Re: Super Tuesday
Look at the states that are left.
Hillary wins states with large Hispanic populations, states in the Northeast, and a small patch of southern states next to Arkansas. But outside of Massachusetts, New York, Arkansas, and Tennessee, she didn't win anything decisively.
Obama wins...everything else.
Every state in the Mountain West goes for Obama. The entire Midwest. Most of the South. He still manages to win Delaware and Connecticut and hold his ground in NJ/CA (relatively small losses considering the expectations). And when he wins, he wins big. 70%+ in Kansas. Similar margins in Idaho, Georgia, Alaska, Colorado and the rest.
Now look at the states that are still in play.
The next set of primaries are in Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington. What makes you think Hillary has a chance in ANY of those states?
Louisiana: Heavily black 1/3 of the population and a vast majority of the democratic party in that state. Obama wins 80% of those voters (without trying) and wins the states by at least 20 points.
Nebraska: It's a caucus state and Obama hasn't lost a single caucus, anywhere. It's a slam dunk, another 20 point win for Obama.
Washington: Lots of college educated folks. Very few Hispanic voters (Clinton's only strong constituency) and it's a caucus state. And as I said before, Obama has won every single caucus state.
Next week we get DC (Obama country), Maryland (Obama country), and Virginia (a toss up).
So out of the next half dozen primaries, Obama is going to walk away with 5 of them. Hillary needs to rack up a big lead in Virginia to maintain her lead in the delegate count.
By one week from today, Obama will have a lead in the delegate count and Hillary's campaign will be broke. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6245 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 4:12 pm Post subject: Re: Super Tuesday
Tyler_JC wrote:
Look at the states that are left...
Interesting breakdown, Tyler. I didn't realize Obama was going to have such an advantage in the remaining primaries.
Hillary has her work cut out for her. This will be fun to watch. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4243 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:16 pm Post subject: Re: Super Tuesday
Zardoz wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
Look at the states that are left...
Interesting breakdown, Tyler. I didn't realize Obama was going to have such an advantage in the remaining primaries.
Hillary has her work cut out for her. This will be fun to watch.
I haven't looked at the poll numbers intensely (because there isn't much poll data available on these states).
But if you look at the general demographics of these places, Hillary is out of easy wins.
Here's a map I've made. Light blue are the states won by Hillary. Black are the states won by Obama. The little black circles mean I think Obama is likely to win it. The little blue ones give Hillary an advantage.
Michigan and Florida aren't getting any delegates. Obama wins by huge margins in his states, Hillary wins by 10 points in her best states.
All of these races are proportional. Hillary won New Jersey, but many of those delegates will end up in Obama's hands.
And despite the fact that most of the Clinton-friendly states have already voted, she only leads Obama by .5% in the total vote count and a mere 80 delegate lead. When Washington, Louisiana, and Nebraska vote on Saturday, much of her lead will disappear.
There are no more California/New Jersey Latinos, New England liberals, or Arkansas&Neighbors left to give her any more major victories. Other than a huge win in Texas, I don't see her picking up anything. Pennsylvania could be Clinton Country but here's the problem. Blacks make up 11% of the population while Hispanics make up only 4%. In New Jersey, that ratio was 16% Black and 15% Hispanic. With 3/4 of the New Jersey Hispanic vote going for Clinton, she was still only able to pull off a 10 point win in her backyard. And she lost in Connecticut...
One last thing to remember. Obama beat Hillary by 32% in Illinois. Hillary only beat Obama by 17% in New York. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
The 60-year-old former investment banker had touted his management credentials throughout the campaign, citing his experience in Massachusetts and his turnaround of the scandal-plagued 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City.
But despite pouring millions of his own fortune into the campaign, he struggled after Huckabee upset him in the Iowa caucuses and McCain came from behind to beat him in the New Hampshire primary.
_________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Last edited by Zardoz on Fri Feb 08, 2008 12:31 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3278 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 1:52 pm Post subject: Romney withdraws, Obama to be next President.
Topic says it all, Conservatives have no place to go, many will sit out ensuring Democrat party victory. Clinton is financially dead in the water and tapping personal funds to stay in the race, Obama is getting all the money he needs from the base of the party. McCain can not in any way shape manner or form beat Obama. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 2:01 pm Post subject: Re: Romney withdraws, Obama to be next President.
No way. White America won't let it happen. Romney would have been a good choice, but I think his religion swayed too many people away from him (to his credit, he didn't push his religious faith very much at all during the campaign, which surprised me).
Now it's the lesser of 3 evils: McCain, Clinton, or Obama. All three suck, but I'll still put my money (and vote) on McCain. Besides, I have to believe that McCain will be able to pull some influence from the undecided Democrat and Independent voters.
Joined: Jul 04, 2007 Posts: 1711 Location: via corinas inundum
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 2:15 pm Post subject: Re: Romney withdraws, Obama to be next President.
Prince wrote:
No way. White America won't let it happen. Romney would have been a good choice, but I think his religion swayed too many people away from him (to his credit, he didn't push his religious faith very much at all during the campaign, which surprised me).
Now it's the lesser of 3 evils: McCain, Clinton, or Obama. All three suck, but I'll still put my money (and vote) on McCain. Besides, I have to believe that McCain will be able to pull some influence from the undecided Democrat and Independent voters.
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