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Zardoz
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Joined: Dec 02, 2005
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Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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 Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:26 pm Post subject: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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Here's their latest:
World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE - Update Feb 2008
Oh, my:
| Quote: | World total liquids production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. Increasing numbers of oil experts are forecasting impending peak production plateaus. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the current peak production of 87.2 mbd occurred on January 2008. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will continue increasing.
Although crude oil & lease condensate (C&C) production is forecast to continue declining, the total liquids supply remains on a plateau until 2009 (Fig 1), due to offsetting production increases from natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs), ethanol and XTL (BTL - biomass to liquids, CTL - coal to liquids and GTL - gas to liquids). The main causes for the end of the total liquids plateau in 2009 (Fig 1) are that the C&C production decline rate accelerates to 3%/yr in 2009 (Fig 3) and the production growth from natural gas plant liquids stalls (Fig 15).
Is future total liquids production likely to exceed the current peak of 87.2 mbd on January 2008? It might be possible but it appears unlikely. North Sea production continues to decline. Mexico's production is also in decline. Former USSR production might increase by a small amount. Canada's production should increase slowly but the oil sands are experiencing production constraints and despite claimed reserves of up to 315 Gb (billion barrels), the oil sands will probably produce, at best, a maximum of only 2.5 mbd (million barrels/day). Biofuels production should also continue increasing. Non OPEC total liquids production might increase slowly, assuming that no unexpected disruptions occur. |
So, they're saying that by 2012 we'll see crude production down to less than 80 MBPD, theoretical demand at about 92 MBPD, and a price per barrel of about $190.
We're screwed.
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"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen |
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roccman
Peak Oil Prophet
Joined: Apr 27, 2007
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:28 pm Post subject: Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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Ummmmmmmmm...we are good till september...
then...
Mad max
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"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
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gnm
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:31 pm Post subject: Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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OK, I'll bite - what happens in September Rocc?
-G
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roccman
Peak Oil Prophet
Joined: Apr 27, 2007
Posts: 4351
Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:33 pm Post subject: Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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| gnm wrote: | OK, I'll bite - what happens in September Rocc?
-G |
according to the graph in sept 08 demand goes north and supply south...
that would indicate to me increased volitility on a number of different levels...
yes?
_________________
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
We are going back to roccland - me |
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Iaato
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Mar 12, 2007
Posts: 1009
Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:37 pm Post subject: Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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Throw in a good hericane or two come September--we're overdue by two years for pounding landfall with some GOM rig/pipeline disruption.
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"When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." --Sinclair Lewis |
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gnm
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:40 pm Post subject: Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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So you are guessing that perhaps around sept. 2008 begins the actual widespread shortages and such? I think it will take actual shortages to wake up the general consumer right now. The public is in such a stupor that only actual hardships will wake them up now.
"hurricane" Laato
-G
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yesplease
Fission
Joined: Oct 03, 2006
Posts: 2567
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:49 pm Post subject: Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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How will demand continue to increase while supply drops?
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| Professor Membrane wrote: | | Not now son! I'm making...TOAST! |
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Zardoz
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:54 pm Post subject: Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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| yesplease wrote: | | How will demand continue to increase while supply drops? |
Theoretical demand. What would be consumed if it was available.
They're saying there'll be a shortfall of something like 12 MBPD from what we would burn up if we could get it. Hence the $190 price.
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"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen |
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basil_hayden
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Aug 08, 2005
Posts: 913
Location: CT, USA
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:54 pm Post subject: Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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| yesplease wrote: | | How will demand continue to increase while supply drops? |
Could you stop with the semantics already?
It's theoretical...obviously demand can't exceed supply, but desire can.
Christ, let's move on already. |
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Ferretlover
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Joined: Jun 13, 2007
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:00 pm Post subject: Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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HHhmmm... Is there a reason that the second half of the lines for supply and price are repeats (the ups and downs)..?
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davep
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:01 pm Post subject: Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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| basil_hayden wrote: | | yesplease wrote: | | How will demand continue to increase while supply drops? |
Could you stop with the semantics already?
It's theoretical...obviously demand can't exceed supply, but desire can.
Christ, let's move on already. |
I don't see why demand can't exceed supply. It's actual purchases that can't exceed supply.
</pedant>
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Zardoz
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Joined: Dec 02, 2005
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Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:04 pm Post subject: Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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| basil_hayden wrote: | | Christ, let's move on already. |
I second the motion.
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"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen |
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yesplease
Fission
Joined: Oct 03, 2006
Posts: 2567
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:24 pm Post subject: Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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Desire can exceed supply? M'kay... 
The amount purchased=the amount available, and price is the mediator as to who purchases how much. No semantics there, just what actually happens. Theoretical price is speculative, and w/o any long or short run information/sources on elasticity I trust TOD's price estimates as much I trust a local car salesman's guess as to how much the shiny new SUV would cost me to fuel per year.
Edit- Not to say they are equally credible, just that w/o detailed info I wouldn't trust either about the statements that seem to be simplistic assumptions.
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| Professor Membrane wrote: | | Not now son! I'm making...TOAST! |
Last edited by yesplease on Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:34 pm; edited 4 times in total |
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Starvid
Fission
Joined: Feb 20, 2005
Posts: 2888
Location: Uppsala, Sweden
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:24 pm Post subject: Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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| roccman wrote: | Ummmmmmmmm...we are good till september...
then...
Mad max |
Like we haven't heard this 10 times before.
I think they are too conservative.
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Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis. |
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Valdemar
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 28, 2007
Posts: 358
Location: Cambs., UK
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:25 pm Post subject: Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good... |
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Given Ace's price prediction history, I don't see why.
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