Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5515 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:41 pm Post subject: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall as March Arrives
“We're over the hill and headed down.”
The oil tanker tracker firm, Oil Movements, says OPEC oil exports will begin their first significant drop since last fall around the time March begins. This follows their earlier reports that in the January/February period where exports were more or less fairly steady after rising somewhat in December.
One week ago Roy Mason, head of the consultancy, said "It's a bad time to make predictions. We're on the cusp of a change one way or another".
The drop in exports is attributed entirely to Mideast exporters.
Caution: Oil Movements tries to measures actual shipments, not production, and there is no seasonal adjustment factor in their reports.
Quote:
2/14/08 Oster Dow Jones 16:30:01
February 14, 2008
DJ OPEC Exports In 4 Weeks To March 1 Seen -0.14 M B/D-Tracker
LONDON, Feb 14, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- Seaborne Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' crude oil shipments are expected to fall by 140,000 barrels a day in the four-week period to March 1 as producing nations pullback deliveries due to winter coming to an end next month in the main consuming nations, U.K.-based tanker tracker Oil Movements said Thursday.
Exports from OPEC are forecast to fall to a total of 24.42 million barrels a day in the four-week period to March 1, down from 24.56 million barrels a day in the previous four-week period to Feb. 2, Oil Movements said. The expected drop is the first since late autumn, said Oil Movements head, Roy Mason.
Emblematic of the downturn in OPEC shipments, deliveries from core OPEC producers in the Middle East are seen dropping 210,000 barrels a day to 17.51 million barrels a day in the one-month period to March 1.
"The message is that deliveries are going down and I think this continues in the weeks ahead. We're over the hill and headed down," said Mason.
OPEC shipments are still at relatively healthy levels even with the expected drop in this week's report, Mason said. The expected fall in shipments to a total of 24.42 million barrels a day in the four-week period to March 1 is still almost 400,000 barrels a day higher versus delivery totals in the one-month period to Dec. 1 when winter was underway in the Asia, Europe and the U.S.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
[no link]
Quote:
Exports from oil cartel OPEC were expected to begin sliding seasonally as well, with consultancy Oil Movements forecasting a 140,000-barrels-per-day (bpd) drop in the four weeks to March 1. Lloyd's Marine Intelligence Unit reported OPEC seaborne exports down 279,000 bpd in January versus December.
Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 8:32 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall as March Arrives
The two obvious questions are:
Who will feel the impact of this decrease (answer: whoever cannot afford the oil)
Was the temporary increase in OPEC exports between December and now "real" or were they just shipping a little extra out of inventory?
(answer: no way to tell).
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 2902 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 10:51 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall as March Arrives
pup55 wrote:
The two obvious questions are:
Who will feel the impact of this decrease (answer: whoever cannot afford the oil)
Was the temporary increase in OPEC exports between December and now "real" or were they just shipping a little extra out of inventory?
(answer: no way to tell).
I personally think they were using inventories to buy just a little more time. When the majority of the people find out the truth, the markets could lose 1000 points and oil could be $150.00 in a matter of a couple weeks. This could and probably will by Summer imo.
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 2902 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:00 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall as March Arrives
Armageddon wrote:
pup55 wrote:
The two obvious questions are:
Who will feel the impact of this decrease (answer: whoever cannot afford the oil)
Was the temporary increase in OPEC exports between December and now "real" or were they just shipping a little extra out of inventory?
(answer: no way to tell).
I personally think they were using inventories to buy just a little more time. When the majority of the people find out the truth, the markets could lose 1000 points and oil could be $150.00 in a matter of a couple weeks. This could and probably will by Summer imo.
I shouldn't say 'majority' because a 'majority' will never really know why. I am sure a 'majority' could tell you their favorite final 24 contestant on American idol though.
Posted: Sun Feb 17, 2008 5:04 am Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall as March Arrives
Iran says OPEC output cut not ruled out
Quote:
TEHRAN (Thomson Financial) - Iran on Sunday declined to rule out that the oil cartel OPEC would cut production at its next meeting in early March, a move vehemently opposed by oil-consuming countries.
Asked whether the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would cut its output quota at its next meeting in Vienna on March 5, Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari replied:
"We will certainly need to examine the state of the market and also the global oil reserves and then decide."
"It is normal for OPEC to cut its production in March every year," he told reporters on the sidelines of a ceremony in Tehran, referring to the downturn in demand following the end of winter in the northern hemisphere.
OPEC earlier this month at an extraordinary meeting in Vienna left its official daily output ceiling at 29.67 million barrels of oil.
The freeze came despite US calls for an output increase to help bring down high oil prices that Western countries fear will stunt economic growth and fuel inflation.
US President George Bush has personally called on OPEC and its kingpin Saudi Arabia to hike output in response to the continued strength in prices.
Oil prices remain solid at around 95 dollars a barrel after striking a high above 100 dollars at the start of the year, despite fears of a US recession.
But Iran and its fellow US foe and close ally Venezuela have openly mulled defying the United States by cutting production in March amid concerns about the effects of a US economic slowdown on oil prices.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5515 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 8:12 am Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall as March Arrives
pup55 wrote:
Was the temporary increase in OPEC exports between December and now "real" or were they just shipping a little extra out of inventory?
I went back and found that there is an answer to this question, but not the one those thinking the price of oil should fall want to hear.
Quote:
January 29, 2008
DJ OPEC Jan Output Trickles Up To 33M B/D, Enough For 2Q -Tracker
DUBAI, Jan 29, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- Crude oil production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries trickled higher in January, with the group's present output sufficient to meet its share of global oil demand in the seasonally weaker April-June period, tanker tracker Petrologistics said Tuesday.
Production from the group's 13 members was expected at 32.9 million barrels a day, 100,000 barrels a day higher than seen in December, the Geneva-based consultancy firm said.
Revised figures for Saudi Arabia show that OPEC's largest producer pumped 9.4 million barrels a day in January, 100,000 barrels a day below a revised December figure, Gerber said.
Saudi Arabia's sharply increased output since November is largely the result of the release of crude oil from stocks rather than an increase in production, he added.
"The Saudis have a lot of crude that's already been produced. December was the first time last year where they actually redirected from stocks," Gerber said.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2415 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 12:06 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall as March Arrives
DantesPeak wrote:
"The Saudis have a lot of crude that's already been produced. December was the first time last year where they actually redirected from stocks," Gerber said.
Oh my! This is probably what a lot of us are fearing is worst case. If this truly is what is going on, the next question is how long can they sustain that?
Boy, once the market gets a hold of this....it's going to get ugly quickly.
Joined: Dec 09, 2004 Posts: 482 Location: Around somewhere
Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 1:51 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall as March Arrives
I posted something here a couple weeks ago about a comment that was made by Jim Puplava of Financialsense.com. He stated that the CIA sent Matt Simmons to Saudi Arabia to gather info on many fields. Jim claimed that Matt found the situation alarming. I believe Jim comments.
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 2902 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:00 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall as March Arrives
AirlinePilot wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
"The Saudis have a lot of crude that's already been produced. December was the first time last year where they actually redirected from stocks," Gerber said.
Oh my! This is probably what a lot of us are fearing is worst case. If this truly is what is going on, the next question is how long can they sustain that?
Boy, once the market gets a hold of this....it's going to get ugly quickly.
How long have I been saying this ? I knew they were drawing from stocks. Can't blame them though. Once people find out the truth regarding SA, fear/panic will run rampant. Twilight in the desert in real time.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5515 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:01 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall as March Arrives
AirlinePilot wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
"The Saudis have a lot of crude that's already been produced. December was the first time last year where they actually redirected from stocks," Gerber said.
Oh my! This is probably what a lot of us are fearing is worst case. If this truly is what is going on, the next question is how long can they sustain that?
Boy, once the market gets a hold of this....it's going to get ugly quickly.
Unfortunately, this is the latest word from Petrologistics I can find and I haven't seen anyone else discussing the Saudi situation in regards to drawing down existing inventories.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5515 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:22 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall as March Arrives
Oil Movements sees some temporary improvement in OPEC shipments, to be followed by a further fall in exports.
Quote:
2/21/08 Oster Dow Jones 16:30:01
February 21, 2008
DJ OPEC Exports In 4 Wks To March 8 Seen About Flat - Tracker
LONDON, Feb 21, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- Seaborne Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' crude oil shipments are expected to remain relatively unchanged in the four-week period to March 8 as winter heating demand holds up in Asia, U.K.-based tanker tracker Oil Movements said Thursday.
Exports from OPEC are forecast to fall to ease a minor 20,000 barrels a day to 24.54 million barrels a day in the four-week period to March 8, down from 24.56 million barrels a day in the previous four-week period to Feb. 9, Oil Movements said.
"Almost entirely, the sailings are headed East. The Eastern winter tends to last a bit longer than in the West (in the U.S. and Europe)," said Oil Movements head Roy Mason.
Mason said he expected next week's data to show a considerable drop in OPEC sailings because next week's data will be compared against the seasonal high for OPEC shipments. "Next week, we'll be up against a strong comparison for the four-week average, so we should see a decent drop," he said.
Deliveries from core OPEC producers in the Middle East are seen dropping 50,000 barrels a day to 17.67 million barrels a day in the one-month period to March 8.
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 Posts: 94 Location: British Virgins
Posted: Fri Feb 22, 2008 2:45 am Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall as March Arrives
There are far too many pundits chasing the wrong rabbit. Exports have been falling, not because of domestic growth, but rather due to production volumes being far lower than the heady days of 2006Q2. This will not resolve soon. Q2 is quiet time. 2008Q3 will be the time that production returns to some degree of consistent volume and flows that will foster medium term export contracts that are being executed today.
Iran, Iraq & especially Saudi Arabia will provide the new flow that will enhance these exports. In short, exports rise and fall with volume. The slip back to 84 mb/d levels in 2007 was the background to the temporary down trend.
Pundits claiming Saudi terminal decline in 2007 look like imbeciles today. In Q3, it will be the export bears eating crow.
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