How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Not so fast on the gloom and doom in this category. The deficit was financial. Why? The DOLLAR value of imported foods exceeded the dollar value of exported foods.
Part of this from the declining dollar. Foreign goods are increasing relative worth as our currency buys less and less. Along those lines, most imported food tends to be value added-french wines, european cheeses, etc. Meanwhile our exports tend to be the base crops - corn, wheat, soybeans. Our demand for off-season produce further exacerbates the balance of trade. Now when US strawberries are off-season, we get them from Chile. Before, we waited until they were in season and canned the surplus. This trend to a globalized food market is in for a rude interruption, courtesy of Peak Oil.
Another reason for the new imbalance in food trade is immigration. The US is an immigrant country and the last decade saw huge increase in new residents here. Along with them, came their diets. Now your average immigrant isn't going to find his or her favorited food down at the local Safeway/Vons/Albertsons so they have to look elsewhere, which resulted in the creation of ethnic food importers and retail establishments. Go to any aging suburban strip mall (like from the 50's or 60's) or urban immigrant community commercial strip and you will see them. Well, these food imports don't exist in a vacuum and with millions of immigrants (and increasing numbers of non immigrants) eating native diets on 100% imported foods and before long you will have a cummulative impact on the food trade deficit. Plus, before long you have long time US citizens becoming familiar with some of these new tastes and which only increases then import demands. (Personally, I enjoy cooking some German, Indian, Thai and Japanese dishes and whenever the fancy would hit me, I'd just wander on down to one of those stores and get what I needed).
So when you have increased importation of (high) value-added ethnic goods in the era of a declining dollar you are going to impact the ag balance of trade, especially considering our output tends to be (low) value raw grains, it is not surprising-or worrysome--at all to see a negative balance of trade.
In pure energetic terms, we still export more calories than we import. _________________ UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
If the many-year drought in the West and our Middle Breadbasket states keeps up, though, we ain't gonna have nothing to export...unless, of course, the gov't decides it'd endure more hungry Americans in order to get more export monies! Of course, the price tag on imported products is going up, as the dollar is down and other currencies are up. So there's another source of $$ for the Imperialists.
We "average" sorts in this country are really about to be royally s****ed.
And if the US can't export food in the near future, the rest of the world will have an even harder time with food supply. Die-offs by 2010? Let's hope not, but....
Not so fast on the gloom and doom in this category. The deficit was financial. Why? The DOLLAR value of imported foods exceeded the dollar value of exported foods.
I can't say for sure whether your account is right or not, and I will for the sake of argument say you are 100 % correct. But, that still does not deny the fact that it is yet another area where the US should be a net exporter instead of importer. It adds more to the deficit and is moving the Americans faster into the bread line.
At a time when the US needs to decrease the deficits by finding a means to export more then it imports, this is not a good sign.
It seems the Americans can only find tourism increasing when toursm doesn't draw the cash needed to offset the huge trade deficits. I wonder though how much of the products the tourists buy when they come to the US are made in the US or come from China.
How does it help the US economy if a German flies to New York to buy pairs of blue jeans if those blue jeans are made in Asia? I'm also sure that those tourists who come to buy, don't buy as much as the Americans pretend, because many have limits before having to pay duties on return that can make their purchases expensive.
Yeah, I do agree with your assesment of the trade deficit impact. We seem to have ceased being a country that makes anything anymore.
I always got a chuckle when I looked on the back of most of that patriotic crap trinkets that proliferated after 9/11. Front: Eagle with flag lapel pin. Back: Made in China.
On the other hand even tho most shopping tourists buy non american stuff, the service related part of the stay (resturants hotels tips etc) do end up benefitting the local economies tourists frequent. _________________ UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2004 10:19 am Post subject: import / export
Being an Australian I would point out the following.
From my perspective America Exports technology, patents, copyrights, Franchises.
such as Microsoft, Pepsi, McDonalds, US Arms, F16 Fighter planes, Boeing, Music Copyright, Hollywood Copyright, Book publishing copyright, Software copyright etc, etc
If you look up patent / copyright laws recenty as part of the International free trade agreements, countries are agreeing to longer copyright and Patent laws, something like 50 to 100 years.
More distrubingly is the USA trying (in my opinion) to patent food. Look at the GM food stuff. These seeds are patented, they also try to develop sterile seeds and it is illegal to use these seeds for private or commercial use. From other websites I've seen Giant US corporations are buying seed stock companies. Undoubtedly initially they will provide these seeds cheaply and once they propogate they will charge increased prices for them. Who could argue, we all need food so we will in effect be paying more for our food and this money going directly into Global Corporations pockets so we have to in the end pay more for food.
So although the USA is not actually producing as much as they used to their trade deficiet still has the ability to balance
On the other hand even tho most shopping tourists buy non american stuff, the service related part of the stay (resturants hotels tips etc) do end up benefitting the local economies tourists frequent.
Now, compare the salary of a waiter in a tourist hotel, or the clerk is a store frequented by tourists, to that of a factory worker. Or at least a factory worker's salary before the factory moved to China.
When you destroy a high wage job and replace it with a low wage job you actually make matters worse. The person who once earned high wages and now earns low wages still has a high wage standard of living they feel is owed to them. To make up for the difference the person must consistently borrow, thus keeping the deficits growing.
In fact, I read recently that Ameericans speed 115 % of earned income today versus 20 % some 60 years ago. Meaning Americans now spend 15 cents more for every dollar earned and in the past saved 80 cents for every dollar they earned.
This is how the Americans screwed themselves. They let themselves become subsidised by the world. As the world decides to end that subsidy, Americans are going to wake up one morning and find they can't maintain the high living standard they have become accustom to. What happens then is anbody's guess, but I'll bet it won't be a pretty site.
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2004 2:46 pm Post subject: Re: import / export
diceman99 wrote:
Being an Australian I would point out the following.
From my perspective America Exports technology, patents, copyrights, Franchises.
such as Microsoft, Pepsi, McDonalds, US Arms, F16 Fighter planes, Boeing, Music Copyright, Hollywood Copyright, Book publishing copyright, Software copyright etc, etc
The majority of the "industries" you mention above are multinational companies. They may be headquartered in the US, but they have factories and establishments world wide. Whereas the upper 5 % of the American population may benefit handsomely from the profits of these companies, very few below that level do.
Microsoft is a very wealthy company, but a majority of the products they put out are not "made in the USA". At one time American software engineers produced Microsoft products, but not anymore. All of it comes from India and elsewhere.
When I speak of America not exporting anything, I should be more specific and say America doesn't have the manufacturing base to hire American workers at European wages and benefits and allow the average American to earn the money he needs to maintain his expected living standard without existing on credit that he can never repay.
Show me some examples where a large amount of Americans can afford to live the lifestyle the rest of the world is suppose to envy.
Quote:
So although the USA is not actually producing as much as they used to their trade deficiet still has the ability to balance
I don't agree! For the deficit to balance, Americans will have to either lower their living standard expectations by spending within their means or for those companies to hire more Americans and pay them wages that support a high living standard. Otherwise, the situation will only get worse.
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