THE Future of Aviation Thread (merged)

whereismymonkey · Tar Sands Joined: Dec 25, 2004 Posts: 52

I havn't broken free of 152's yet and they go for $60 an hr. I think the 172's are about $100.

LateGreatPlanetEarth · Posted: Wed Dec 29, 2004 7:12 pm Post subject:

Travel industry will cease to exist, decreasing on an accerelated downslope which is sharper than the peak oil curve. General real estate will back down to the 1950's level; however, farm land will hold up better so still not good to buy that until after the crisis is in full swing.
Gold might be good but I'm not convinced yet. Oil companies stocks, again kinda iffy since their remaining ground assets will be worth more, but less demand for their product.
The big question is about cash (dollars). May not want to be holding it either since the US could print the stuff to the tune of making the dollar pegged to the consumer index, ultimately worth about 1/10'th the current value.
Seems Aust, Swiz money market should be ok.

grinchmob · Tar Sands Joined: Jan 04, 2005 Posts: 21

I'm a Navy pilot with 8+ years of service. I enjoy it very much. I'm getting out in about a year. Even if I had not discovered Peak Oil I would consider the airlines and aviation in general to be a poor career. Job stability is rock bottom in aviation and probably will be for a very long time.
Of course, depending on how bad you think things are going to get...you should also not forget that there will be very few careers that are safe from the effects of PO.

As a general rule though, airline pilots are the first to lose their jobs when fuel prices rocket out of control. If roughly 40% of an airline's cost of business involves purchasing fuel then it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out that 55$/barrel of fuel will make most airlines bleed red all over their balance statements - unless they're willing to raise ticket prices (this just makes pax #'s go down and ultimately less revenue is generated). Then when less people fly; the airlines require less airplanes flying (and the pilots who fly them). That's not the time to be junior on the airline's rocket list. I have several friends that now fly in the reserves (because they're furloughed airline pilots) that knew when they saw the 2nd plane hit the towers on Sept 11th that they would be laid off within 24 hours.

Being a pilot is a great job but a terrible career. If you believe Peak Oil will have a strong negative effect in our country within the next 20 years then I would stay away from aviation. Don't get me wrong...I have no regrets about being a pilot but am not in denial of that fact that I will probably have to learn another way to make a living soon. It's probably best to be a rich doctor and own your own plane and to fly for fun. Then when TSHTF you can trash the plane and still survive by treating farmer's and warlord's in exchange for food.

whereismymonkey · Tar Sands Joined: Dec 25, 2004 Posts: 52

Hey Grinch, what planes do you fly for the navy? What do you think about the military as far as flying goes in the future. I am still young enough to make the military a career flying, but I have just started, and I'm not sure i wanna spend the money to get a commercial pilots license which will in turn guarentee me entrance in either the navy, or airforce as a pilot.

Kingcoal · Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2005 8:19 am Post subject:

Conventional has already peaked in my estimation. Aviation is very sensitive to fuel prices as everyone knows. However, the military is top priority and will continue to fly for decades.

One thing you have to remember about PO is that it is slow. The commercial sector is the first to be hit. However, the Airline industry is getting hit from all angles these days, not just fuel prices. There appears to be an ever lowering ticket price expectation. This tells me that there is declining demand. I think that we are seeing the effect of the Internet and advances in telecommunication. Terrorism also figures into it.

grinchmob · Tar Sands Joined: Jan 04, 2005 Posts: 21

WIMM, I fly the T-45 Goshawk. It's a single engine jet trainer and I'm on shore duty right now as an instructor. This is a really good tour. As for the future of military aviation WRT Peak Oil...your guess is as good as mine but I'll shoot anyway:

In general, the military offers way more job security than the airlines. However, this security might depend on how high the price goes and how quickly. So if it's a gradual price increase then I would expect the flight hour program for the military to be gradually cut (instead of 250-300 hours flight time per year you might expect 100-200 for the average military pilot). The Navy and Air Force have the advantage of not having to make a profit or please investors etc. So we can probably fly when gas prices would put most airlines into bankruptcy (as long as the Pentagon can procure the gas). But I believe our government could go bankrupt any day now considering the national debt etc.

But if it's a rapid price spike in oil then here's another scenario to consider: after every war in the history of Naval Aviation we have seen RIF's (Reduction In Force). Hundreds of pilots received pink slips of paper that said in effect "thanks for your service; get a job elsewhere." We have not seen it yet from Gulf 2 but then again the Iraq and AFgan conflicts are not exactly over. We are already seeing the budget constraints though. The Navy will get rid of a carrier next year because the Pentagon is low on $ for the war and the Air Force had to cut some money from it's F-22 program (again). I would expect a RIF soon after any kind of price spike. Or worse, they could declare that they needed you to stop flying and become an infantry guy for the Army (go protect the oil).

So, as a general rule, job security in the military as a pilot is better but even then you wouldn't be safe from unemployment (or worse). I believe when oil gets expensive enough that the military will not hesitate to cut many pilots to save money (since they will no doubt be flying much less anyway).

grinchmob · Tar Sands Joined: Jan 04, 2005 Posts: 21

I joined the Navy because I could not afford flight training (stopped short of my private pilot's license). I have many civilian friends with tens of thousands of dollars worth of loans to pay for their flight training (not a good idea since they have $hitty flying jobs to pay the loans...takes years of flying for $hit pay to get the experience required for the unstable but okay-paying airline job).
If you decide to fly in the military make sure you have plan B for when your time in the service is up but there are no aviation jobs on the outside.

You also need to have plan C for when TSHTF. I really think it's not going to matter much what your career is when the sky starts falling. You're either going to be a doctor, farmer, or "other." Most of us fall into the "other" category. Smart "others" will be prepared. Ignorant "others" will rapidly adapt, turn to crime, or die.

I say get into the AF flight program and fly all you want to but no matter where the military sends you try to live away from the city and don't forget to buy some guns, grow some veggies and have plan C ready for surviving (not possible if you're stuck on a ship).

I'm choosing to get out because I don't want to be stuck on a ship baby-sitting North Korea when TSHTF and my wife is at home alone to deal with all of the panic etc. (a scenario you need to consider too no matter what branch of service you end up going with to fly) I hope that I'm wrong and have simply been taking crazy pills and that none of this crap ever happens but I have to plan as if it might. The evidence for an interesting future is quite strong.
Best of luck and sorry for the long post.
Grinch

whereismymonkey · Tar Sands Joined: Dec 25, 2004 Posts: 52

That was a good post Grinch, thanks for the information. I am currently in the airforce working on f-16's and have been doing so for about 2 years. I have 2 years left of my enlisted contract, and have just started a commercial aviation degree online. I am only taking 2 classes this semester due to work commitments, but after they are up im scraping the program. The degree requires you to have a commercial license to graduate and i'm not going to put the money into it, knowing what i know. This is especially so, as i don't know if i want to commit myself to the military again after such a shitty enlisted experience. You need a degree to be commisioned in the military as you know, which puts me out of luck for now.

I have never wanted to do anything else with my life and have no idea what to do now. The airforce will pay for any classes i want to take, however due to the randon shifts and almost constant 12 hr shifts or exercises it's hard to get much done. I am about 15 hrs away from my private pilots license and will probably finish that just because i started, but after that i have no idea what to do.

When i get out i am almost certainly moving back to Australia where i am originally from and where most of my family lives. I think Aus stands a pretty good chance in PO, due to it's geographic location and vast amounts of land, and good temperatures all yr round. The population living by the coast where sea food is available is also a plus. I just hope the airlines are still going in 2 years to get back there. I might consider the Aus airforce as a pilot when i get back. I'll see how this peak oil thing turns out.

jato · Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2005 2:31 am Post subject:

I think your Private license would be a good thing to have. Single engine & light twin use may make a comeback. They are cheaper, easier to maintain and less complicated. If the commercial airlines fold, how are the rich folk going to get to their Palm Springs golf course in a timely manner?

Twisted Evil

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The_Virginian · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jun 19, 2004 Posts: 1428

Agreed Jato, Props could be run off of Bio-deisel.
The question is will the derth of pilots be able to find these (shrinking) jobs?
Now if "wheres his monkey" buys a small prop, and offers service at a 10% discount because his french fry fuel will let him, then he can have a life in the sky as he desires... IMHO.
I see austrailia as a great place PO. I think of "wheres my monkey" as the crazy flying dude in "mad max" with an ultra light. 5masked

Occidental Hiku time:
pirates in the sky,
flying High,
backs to the sun.
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jato · Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2005 4:39 am Post subject:

Actually, I was thinking about using avgas or car gas. Fly light planes on the down slope of the bell curve.
There will always be rich folks. They will want to travel in a quick and safe manner. Imagine cruising at 10,000 feet while all of those people are starving, robbing and looting down below. What is 100 gallons of avgas to a Ritchie Rich?

Once we reach the bottom of the curve, then yes bio diesel. However, I believe there won't be an industrial civilization by that time.

Chachi · Coal Joined: Mar 21, 2005 Posts: 2

I can see how alternative fuels can provide power for almost all types of transport, but how can a jet engine create thrust to propel a plane without jet fuel or another petroleum based byproduct?
PS: I know about Scramjets and hydrogen, but these have to be flying faster than the speed of sound before the scramjet can work.

Doly · Expert Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 4031

I'm not sure about planes. Dirigibles could be a good fuel-saving alternative.
Not very useful for war purposes, though Very Happy

Michael_Allison · Posted: Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:31 am Post subject:

I think jets can be made to run on alcohol. Not sure at all, though.

It's important to remember that after peak oil there will still be oil. It will be expensive, but it won't be gone from the world completely.

pip · Posted: Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:34 am Post subject:

Biodiesel. I have no idea about jet engines, but the lighter wintertime grades of petrodiesel can meet jet fuel specs and vice versa.
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