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emersonbiggins
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Joined: Jul 10, 2005
Posts: 5067
Location: Dallas
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 Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:02 pm Post subject: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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$100.01, to be exact.
$100 will look cheap in 5 years, I'm sure.
| Quote: | AP
Oil Jumps Above $100 on Refinery Outage
Tuesday February 19, 3:08 pm ET
By John Wilen, AP Business Writer
Oil Jumps Back Above $100 on a Texas Refinery Outage and Possible OPEC Production Cut
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil futures shot higher Tuesday, closing above $100 for the first time as investors bet that crude prices will keep climbing despite evidence of plentiful supplies and falling demand. At the pump, gas prices rose further above $3 a gallon.
There was no single driver behind oil's sharp price jump; investors seized on an explosion at a 67,000 barrel per day refinery in Texas, the falling dollar, the possibility that OPEC may cut production next month, and continuing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.
Gasoline and heating oil prices appeared to be leading the advance, rising faster in percentage terms than oil due to the explosion Monday at Alon USA's Big Spring, Texas, refinery, which could be shuttered for two months.
"The refinery fire in Texas is making people a little concerned," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc. in Amherst, Mass.
Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose $4.51 to settle at a record $100.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after earlier rising to $100.10, a new trading record. It was the first time since Jan. 3 that oil had been above $100.
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Yahoo
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BigTex
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Joined: Aug 03, 2006
Posts: 4302
Location: Graceland
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:10 pm Post subject: Re: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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One thing that is striking about what happened today is that there really wasn't a catalyst that you could point to. Refinery outages haven't bumped the price like that in the past.
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joeltrout
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: Sep 19, 2007
Posts: 1317
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:14 pm Post subject: Re: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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| BigTex wrote: | | One thing that is striking about what happened today is that there really wasn't a catalyst that you could point to. Refinery outages haven't bumped the price like that in the past. |
Thats the crazy part...it is the same old news we have heard the last 2 years
Tight Supply
Refinery Outages
Venezula
Violence in Nigeria
Now if OPEC does cut production oil should shoot up to $125 pretty easily.
joeltrout |
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sdcoyote
Tar Sands
Joined: May 24, 2005
Posts: 56
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:16 pm Post subject: Re: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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It is going to be an amazing spring, I think.
If someone had told me this in 2000, I would have called them a lunatic. |
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BigTex
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Joined: Aug 03, 2006
Posts: 4302
Location: Graceland
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:36 pm Post subject: Re: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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When markets move up like this without an apparent trigger you're in the middle of a BULL market.
Think about what's going to happen when there is a hurricane, or shooting starts in the ME, or a pipeline is blown up, or any number of other crazy things happen in:
Nigeria
SA
Iraq
Iran
Venezuela
Alaska
The Gulf of Mexico
Mexico
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oddone
Tar Sands
Joined: May 24, 2006
Posts: 58
Location: Norway
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:01 pm Post subject: Re: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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For ca. 95% of the world population, the oil price is the same or less compared to yesterday.
Watch the dollar fall...
It's like trading commodities in Weimar DM's.
Watch the gold price going the same way - USD 1000 tomorrow? |
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DantesPeak
Expert
Joined: Oct 23, 2004
Posts: 5900
Location: New Jersey
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:03 pm Post subject: Re: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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| $100.03 a few minutes ago. |
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Pops
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Joined: Apr 03, 2004
Posts: 6547
Location: My Grandkids' Farm
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:04 pm Post subject: Re: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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What did our Some Guy say last week?
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davep
Expert
Joined: Jun 21, 2006
Posts: 1252
Location: Europe
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:06 pm Post subject: Re: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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Ooh, down to 99.86 on NYMEX. Pah, peak oil's for conspiracy nuts 
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heroineworshipper
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jul 14, 2006
Posts: 629
Location: Calif*
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:21 pm Post subject: Re: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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It was really the BluRay bonuses awarded to Pioneer management after HD DVD production was officially ended. That alone raised inflation over 30%.
> down to 99.86 on NYMEX. Pah, peak oil's for conspiracy nuts
$99.86 is deflationary! We need more rate cuts.
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Last edited by heroineworshipper on Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:30 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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americandream
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: Oct 18, 2004
Posts: 1927
Location: kiwibush
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:21 pm Post subject: Re: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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| BigTex wrote: | When markets move up like this without an apparent trigger you're in the middle of a BULL market.
Think about what's going to happen when there is a hurricane, or shooting starts in the ME, or a pipeline is blown up, or any number of other crazy things happen in:
Nigeria
SA
Iraq
Iran
Venezuela
Alaska
The Gulf of Mexico
Mexico |
There's mutterings in the market that Bernanke's rate cuts are enabling debt refinancing at lower cost and releasing the surplus funds for consumerism. The upshot of these rumblings is that the market is bullish about demand revival. In the midst of all of this China and India are posting good growth rates. Go figure.
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turmoil
Moderator
Joined: Aug 13, 2004
Posts: 1185
Location: Richmond, VA, Pale Blue Dot
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:44 pm Post subject: Re: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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| Quote: | | Crude oil rose to a record $100.10 a barrel in New York on speculation OPEC will cut production when it meets next month. Gasoline and heating oil also reached records as investors poured money into energy markets. |
Crude Oil Rises to a Record $100.10 on OPEC Production Outlook
Looks like there's a trigger after all...
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Last edited by turmoil on Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:04 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3692
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:46 pm Post subject: Re: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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I find it hard to believe that a little refinery explosion caused this mess.
Many of the things listed above are much more likely.
Also, keep in mind that right now is when people are buying oil for their production in April. |
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Gandalf_the_White
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Nov 21, 2007
Posts: 511
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:11 pm Post subject: Re: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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The price of oil since this time last year is almost doubled. What more of a story do you need? It almost doubled in the previous 2 years. It's called exponential price pressure being caused most likely by a non-zero second derivative of demand minus supply. That is supply and demand are still diverging at an increasing rate. Look for more price increases coming soon to a long hot summer near you. Pray God there are no major hurricanes again this year in the Gulf, or pray your locking gas cap can withstand the onslaught as oil flirts with $130 and gas starts lusting for $6 sometime in the dog days. Even without added fear in the market I expect $110-$115 and $5 somewhere in the Midwest this year.
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sjn
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Mar 09, 2005
Posts: 568
Location: UK
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:48 pm Post subject: Re: Oil closes above $100 for the first time |
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| So does everybody still think my numbers in the price prediction thread are crazy? |
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