Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 7:15 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol vs. Biofuels
Will the 3rd world countries still curse the USA, when the sacks of corn and wheat stop arriving? Yes. Is the American farmer finally making some good loot? Yes. Were the Greenies dumb to push ethanol? Yes. Is this a case of unintended consequence? Yes. Is it time to end 3rd world aid anyway? Yes.
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 8:45 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol vs. Biofuels
Yeah deMolay, I think that pretty much sums it up...
Ethanol and Biodiesel both equate to burning crops, at a time when
world crop production has been having trouble keeping up with the
worlds demands.
Other fuel options?
* Cellulosic ethanol, but probably not using crop wastes because
that would cause rapid soil depletion. And this technology may take
10 - 20 years to develop and scale, if it can be made to work well
enough.
* Electric - There is some hope with electric: wind/solar powering
EV's, of course changing over the fleet would require 10-20 years,
and massive mining efforts to provide enough batteries, unless
super-capacitors or compressed air takes off...
* Coal, coal gas and coal to liquids are likely growth areas. Scaling
up production and facilities will take time and with increased
demand coal prices are taking off, so don't expect it to be cheap.
* Toe to heel air injection - This seems to be a technology with a lot
of potential to produce more hydrocarbons.
* Agrichar - This seems to be a technology with the potential to
offset carbon into the soil, produce fertilizer and produce power.
May take 20 to 80 years to scale to todays needs.
Just a few things off the top of my head. There are some possible
solutions out there to keep this ride going a little longer. But none
of them are instant fixes and they all run into problems scaling up to
meet world demand or compounding environmental problems.
Exponential Growth of our Energy and Environmental Problems
Problems: Population pressure, Hydrocarbon depletion, climate change
There sure are a lot of people riding this train...
Global Dimming and extreme climate change
"But perhaps the most alarming aspect of global dimming is that it
may have led scientists to underestimate the true power of the greenhouse effect."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4171591.stm
Scientists predict Southwest mega-drought
"Climate models indicate region will be as dry as Dust Bowl for decades"
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17967097/
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4364 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 9:31 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol vs. Biofuels
You're right demolay.
But it's not the 'greenies' exactly demolay... some of them are on the right track. It's the 'greener than thou crowd' with political pull driving around in their hybrids and bio-diesel busses who are leading the charge into crop burning and the horrors it will cause poor people everywhere.
Every time I see a 10% ethanol sticker on a gas pump i feel a bit ill.... because I've become part of the killing when I buy the stuff. As do all of us. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 9:37 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol vs. Biofuels
deMolay wrote:
I can see some potential for the bio-diesel if it is made from waste oil
or bi-products.
Yeah, perhaps. But that's like making oil from turkey guts, it can be
done and it's important for the companies doing it. But it's just going
after scraps...
eastbay wrote:
It's the 'greener than thou crowd' with political pull driving around in
their hybrids and bio-diesel busses who are leading the charge into
crop burning and the horrors it will cause poor people everywhere.
Every time I see a 10% ethanol sticker on a gas pump i feel a bit
ill.... because I've become part of the killing when I buy the stuff. As
do all of us.
I was going to make a joke, but that kind of killed it.
Good point though...
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4364 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 9:57 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol vs. Biofuels
Sad indeed SC.
Extrapolating that line of thought one more step... if we keep moving along with enough crop burning, and there is no end in sight for this disastrous food/ energy policy, eventually it will cause such deep food shortages that ethanol will actually cause the die-off so many speak about.
Wouldn't that be something else... fake 'greenies' force an energy policy on us causing the worst worldwide hunger humanity has ever faced.
It's exactly the path we're on. What a path of horror we tread. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:18 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol vs. Biofuels
eastbay wrote:
Sad indeed SC.
Extrapolating that line of thought one more step... if we keep moving
along with enough crop burning, and there is no end in sight for this
disastrous food/ energy policy, eventually it will cause such deep food
shortages that ethanol will actually cause the die-off so many
speak about.
Wouldn't that be something else... fake 'greenies' force an energy
policy on us causing the worst worldwide hunger humanity has ever
faced.
It's exactly the path we're on. What a path of horror we tread.
On the plus side, ethanol may be phased out as food prices
skyrocket. And falling world grain stocks has been a problem for a
while. So it may be that ethanol production simply speeded things
along such that shortages encourage conservation or other
changes before we hit the real limit to food production.
A few thoughts I had on that...
steam_cannon wrote:
smileyhouston wrote:
Speaking of food prices, I'm sure that most of you are aware of
ethanol being responsible for that. As the stock feed price goes up
for corn, so does dairy, beef and products within that domain.
I think many people are very aware of the impact ethanol production
is having on the market. But ethanol it's hardly to blame for the
effect it's having on food prices, overpopulation is. The trend
towards shortages due to running down grain stocks has been
building for some time. We have been drawing down grain stocks
like a credit card because we are running into limits to our current
methods of food production.
"World Grain Stocks Fall to 57 Days of Consumption...
...marking the sixth time in the last seven years that production has
failed to satisfy demand. " (2006)
http://www.energybulletin.net/17261.html
Ethanol price competition is actually probably a good thing because
it is raising food prices "before" more sever world food shortages
sink in. This means for the right price, the biofuels market can be
put back into the food market and prices will help encourage people
to either grow more or cut back. So I think ethanol will have a
softening effect on the already present trend of production
shortfalls in grains.
It's convenient to blame ethanol, but ethanol can't fit in without
raising prices in the rest of the market because there is no more
room to grow crops. So the real problems are, limits to farmable
land, depleted farm land, energy prices, fertilizer shortages,
droughts, persistent droughts and most important too many people
chowing down world grain stocks.
But hey, that's just my take on things...
So although it is possible that greed will cause famines, it is also
possible the mistake of going into ethanol will help people realize
how close we are to maximum food production globally. So this
mistake could possibly save lives by smoothing the demand and
production curves...
Funny I know, but the mistake of going into ethanol might have a
positive side as well.
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:37 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol vs. Biofuels
Well may be wrong but I look at the bio-diesel as further recycling of waste. For example I have an early VW 1.6L pick-up. In it I can burn waste oil from my farming operation, or the local restaurant. I hope to begin building a small oil recycling operation this year on the farm. Normally the used oil is taken back to the fuel depot and I pay them to dispose of it. Even tho here in Alberta we also pay a 10 cents per L tax on every L of oil purchased for recycling the oil container. Rather than land filling it or burning it. I have started collecting used oil for recycling already. The early diesels were designed to burn straight vegetable oil. When burning clean waste oil, you just have to preheat it to lower the viscosity. I think this is far better than dumping the oil as they used to onto roads etc for dust control. Those things are all illegal here now.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4364 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:51 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol vs. Biofuels
Obviously assorted waste oils have a tiny and positive role to play in a future energy mix. But not for commuting and definitely NOT for mass usage because there clearly isn't enough.
It's crop burning I'm talking about. And it's a real live creep show the likes of which we've never seen before. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4261 Location: Graceland
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:13 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol vs. Biofuels
eastbay wrote:
Obviously assorted waste oils have a tiny and positive role to play in a future energy mix. But not for commuting and definitely NOT for mass usage because there clearly isn't enough.
It's crop burning I'm talking about. And it's a real live creep show the likes of which we've never seen before.
Every time I tell someone that ethanol is a dead end they look at me like "didn't you see the commercials?"
It's going to be wild when people begin to realize that not only is ethanol not the answer, it's actually creating a whole new set of problems.
One more solution that is more complicated than the problem.
I like biodiesel a lot more than ethanol. There is a small level of biodiesel production that does make sense. Unfortunately, I think that when the word gets out about ethanol, biodiesel is going to get flushed down the same toilet. _________________
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4364 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:19 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol vs. Biofuels
BigTex wrote:
eastbay wrote:
Obviously assorted waste oils have a tiny and positive role to play in a future energy mix. But not for commuting and definitely NOT for mass usage because there clearly isn't enough.
It's crop burning I'm talking about. And it's a real live creep show the likes of which we've never seen before.
Every time I tell someone that ethanol is a dead end they look at me like "didn't you see the commercials?"
It's going to be wild when people begin to realize that not only is ethanol not the answer, it's actually creating a whole new set of problems.
One more solution that is more complicated than the problem.
I like biodiesel a lot more than ethanol. There is a small level of biodiesel production that does make sense. Unfortunately, I think that when the word gets out about ethanol, biodiesel is going to get flushed down the same toilet.
yes, bio-diesel is an entirely different and (mostly) benign matter. But when we calculate the body-count from starvation due to our crop burning, no one will care as long as their pick-ups and SUV's are topped off at a fairly cheap price. And if it's too costly they'll demand even more crops are burned... or something else even worse. More war.
I'm dead serious... no one will care. Even the counterfeit 'greener-than thou' types will continue to claim victory as long as their hybrids are moving along on 'green' ethanol.
I am getting more pessimistic every day... _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4261 Location: Graceland
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:27 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol vs. Biofuels
eastbay wrote:
BigTex wrote:
eastbay wrote:
Obviously assorted waste oils have a tiny and positive role to play in a future energy mix. But not for commuting and definitely NOT for mass usage because there clearly isn't enough.
It's crop burning I'm talking about. And it's a real live creep show the likes of which we've never seen before.
Every time I tell someone that ethanol is a dead end they look at me like "didn't you see the commercials?"
It's going to be wild when people begin to realize that not only is ethanol not the answer, it's actually creating a whole new set of problems.
One more solution that is more complicated than the problem.
I like biodiesel a lot more than ethanol. There is a small level of biodiesel production that does make sense. Unfortunately, I think that when the word gets out about ethanol, biodiesel is going to get flushed down the same toilet.
yes, bio-diesel is an entirely different and (mostly) benign matter. But when we calculate the body-count from starvation due to our crop burning, no one will care as long as their pick-ups and SUV's are topped off at a fairly cheap price. And if it's too costly they'll demand even more crops are burned... or something else even worse. More war.
I'm dead serious... no one will care. Even the counterfeit 'greener-than thou' types will continue to claim victory as long as their hybrids are moving along on 'green' ethanol.
I am getting more pessimistic every day...
One more dirty little secret that people are not fully aware of is how much less efficient ethanol is than gas in real world conditions. I read a review of "flex fuel" vehicles in Consumer Reports a while back and they mentioned in passing that the 16 mpg SUV they were running it in only got 12-13 mpg with 100% ethanol. Thus, even if one gallon of ethanol only took one gallon of gas to produce, it would STILL be a loser.
Think about what all that extra corn that is being grown for ethanol is doing to the soil. Just exhausting it and not even feeding anyone. _________________
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:31 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol vs. Biofuels
when i mention bio fuel, I did mean from waste, not necessarily food base. NOVA Bio fuel is a company I'm working with that focuses on cooking oil waste, trash and junk to make bio fuel.
With abundant resource such as this, why the push from corn ethanol.
Also, bio diesel from food base products like whey and soy I think is a bad idea.
Economically too, one pound of soy is at 1.25 i think, takes 8lbs of soy to make one gallon of ethanol... the math doesn't work.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4261 Location: Graceland
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:55 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol vs. Biofuels
smileyhouston wrote:
when i mention bio fuel, I did mean from waste, not necessarily food base. NOVA Bio fuel is a company I'm working with that focuses on cooking oil waste, trash and junk to make bio fuel.
With abundant resource such as this, why the push from corn ethanol.
Also, bio diesel from food base products like whey and soy I think is a bad idea.
Economically too, one pound of soy is at 1.25 i think, takes 8lbs of soy to make one gallon of ethanol... the math doesn't work.
What you're talking about is working the corners.
Scraps. Probably some money to be made there, but it's no solution. Just buys a little extra time. _________________
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
