How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5346 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2008 10:28 pm Post subject: Simmons Video on Bloomberg [March 4]
Simmons says OPEC has limited spare capacity, no ability to raise production; one OPEC country predicts $120 oil soon; peak oil may have past.
Quote:
Simmons Sees Tight Oil Market, No OPEC Output Increases: Video
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Matthew Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International, talks with Bloomberg's Michael McKee and Deirdre Bolton from Houston about the outlook for tomorrow's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, global oil markets, and outlook for gasoline and crude prices. (Source: Bloomberg)
00:00 "I don't think OPEC has any spare capacity."
01:00 Gauging global oil inventories; OPEC'S output
02:27 Outlook for gasoline, oil prices; high costs
Running time 04:42
Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2008 11:18 pm Post subject: Re: Simmons Video on Bloomberg [March 4]
Simmons will go down as either one of the silliest guys in history, or as a prophet years before his time, who tried to warn us before it was too late.
Seems like he is getting more mainstream airtime these days.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1599 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 1:52 am Post subject: Re: Simmons Video on Bloomberg [March 4]
AirlinePilot wrote:
"It's too late"
Of course it's too late. It was too late when we humans first started using kerosene to replace whale oil for lighting. It was inevitable extraction would peak and run out. We should have known, since we were running out of whales at the time.
Sorry for being so fatalistic, I just reread "Overshoot" again. That book sure put things into perspective. It just seems to me that intelligent creatures would have realized oil was finite and not built an entire civilization on it. So much for homo sapien "wise man", huh? _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1715 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 3:24 am Post subject: Re: Simmons Video on Bloomberg [March 4]
joewp wrote:
AirlinePilot wrote:
"It's too late"
Of course it's too late. It was too late when we humans first started using kerosene to replace whale oil for lighting. It was inevitable extraction would peak and run out. We should have known, since we were running out of whales at the time.
Sorry for being so fatalistic, I just reread "Overshoot" again. That book sure put things into perspective. It just seems to me that intelligent creatures would have realized oil was finite and not built an entire civilization on it. So much for homo sapien "wise man", huh?
We have had ample warning about the failed nature of capitalism....in fact going back over one century. We simply chose to ignore the fundamentals of the author's logic, instead choosing to exaggerate the peripheral issues.
Karl Marx in Capital makes it quite clear that a system of exponential commodification would render man a slave of his creations, surrounded by increasingly insurmountable contradictions, contradictions inherent in a system dedicated to endless capital growth. That he was aware of the inter-generational failures inherent in endless growth are captured eloquently by his words:
"From the standpoint of a higher socio-economic formation, the private property of particular individuals in the earth will appear just as absurd as private property of one man in other men. Even an entire society, a nation, or all simultaneously existing societies taken together, are not owners of the earth. They are simply its possessors, its beneficiaries, and have to bequeath it in an improved state to succeeding generations as boni patres familias [good heads of the household]." _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 446 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:27 am Post subject: Re: Simmons Video on Bloomberg [March 4]
Notice how the CNBS hacks completely ignored his warnings throughout the entire video? Not once did they acknowledge any commet by Simmons relating to supply issues or spare capacity. Not a single elaboration.
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 3:03 pm Post subject: Re: Simmons Video on Bloomberg [March 4]
joewp wrote:
It just seems to me that intelligent creatures would have realized oil was finite and not built an entire civilization on it. So much for homo sapien "wise man", huh?
joewp,
The hardest thing in the world to change is an idea. A heavy rock can be moved. A large piece of land can be cultivated. The tallest building in the world can be built. However, changing a weightless, intangible idea sometimes cannot be done regardless of how much effort is employed. Intelligence is not necessarily synonymous with wisdom.
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 4:31 pm Post subject: Re: Simmons Video on Bloomberg [March 4]
The interviewers had a list of questions in front of them and just read them off. Simmons could have been whistling a song instead of talking, it would have had the same effect on the interviewers.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1599 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 7:31 pm Post subject: Re: Simmons Video on Bloomberg [March 4]
ChefBoyardee wrote:
However, changing a weightless, intangible idea sometimes cannot be done regardless of how much effort is employed. Intelligence is not necessarily synonymous with wisdom.
Chef Boyardee
Tell me about it. After three years, I stopped trying to convince people around me of what's happening. Now I'll have to take solace in "I told you so"'s. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5346 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 7:56 pm Post subject: Re: Simmons Video on Bloomberg [March 4]
PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote:
Notice how the CNBS hacks completely ignored his warnings throughout the entire video? Not once did they acknowledge any commet by Simmons relating to supply issues or spare capacity. Not a single elaboration.
Simmons seems oddly out of context when he appears on the tube.
Usually they ease in and out of investment discussions, promoting some kind of investment theme - but not with Simmons.
On CNBC TV and Bloomberg, my imformal guess is that two persons saying the price will fall for every one that says it will go up - but even those pessimists don't say $200 oil is cheap!
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 8:30 pm Post subject: Re: Simmons Video on Bloomberg [March 4]
americandream wrote:
We have had ample warning about the failed nature of capitalism....in fact going back over one century. We simply chose to ignore the fundamentals of the author's logic, instead choosing to exaggerate the peripheral issues.
Karl Marx in Capital makes it quite clear that a system of exponential commodification would render man a slave of his creations, surrounded by increasingly insurmountable contradictions, contradictions inherent in a system dedicated to endless capital growth. That he was aware of the inter-generational failures inherent in endless growth are captured eloquently by his words:
"From the standpoint of a higher socio-economic formation, the private property of particular individuals in the earth will appear just as absurd as private property of one man in other men. Even an entire society, a nation, or all simultaneously existing societies taken together, are not owners of the earth. They are simply its possessors, its beneficiaries, and have to bequeath it in an improved state to succeeding generations as boni patres familias [good heads of the household]."
Have you booked your flight to Cuba yet, so you can live the american dream there?
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:18 pm Post subject: Re: Simmons Video on Bloomberg [March 4]
Watching that video reminded me of my conversations with people. The people asking Simmons questions didn't seem to understand what he was saying at all. They even asked when the price was going back to $60 a barrel. He made it clear that the supply was tight, and they kept asking questions like what should the government do to get cheap oil back.
They didn't hear what he was saying at all.
The only ones who knew what he was saying were us peakers. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: Jul 12, 2006 Posts: 84 Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 12:51 am Post subject: Re: Simmons Video on Bloomberg [March 4]
mos6507 wrote:
americandream wrote:
We have had ample warning about the failed nature of capitalism....in fact going back over one century. We simply chose to ignore the fundamentals of the author's logic, instead choosing to exaggerate the peripheral issues.
Karl Marx in Capital makes it quite clear that a system of exponential commodification would render man a slave of his creations, surrounded by increasingly insurmountable contradictions, contradictions inherent in a system dedicated to endless capital growth. That he was aware of the inter-generational failures inherent in endless growth are captured eloquently by his words:
"From the standpoint of a higher socio-economic formation, the private property of particular individuals in the earth will appear just as absurd as private property of one man in other men. Even an entire society, a nation, or all simultaneously existing societies taken together, are not owners of the earth. They are simply its possessors, its beneficiaries, and have to bequeath it in an improved state to succeeding generations as boni patres familias [good heads of the household]."
Have you booked your flight to Cuba yet, so you can live the american dream there?
It is not necessary to be Communist, to believe or follow Communism, or to desire to live in a Communist society, to consider some of Karl Marx's writings to be of relevance to society, humanity, our current global situation.
As many people posting to these forums have already remarked many times in various ways (including specifically): we live on a finite ball of rock with finite resources, are part of an almost closed (almost, due to the input of solar energy) system and ecology. In such an environment, one cannot expect indefinite infinite growth as espoused by current economic theories and practices. Whether we are referring to today's free market Capitalism or the Communism as practised in the former Soviet Union, any economic system built upon indefinite (or, eternal) growth in consumption of finite resources is simply not sustainable.
If we, as a species and a civilisation, had woken up to this a hundred years ago (and changed our ways accordingly), we would not be worrying about Peak Oil today.
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:06 pm Post subject: Re: Simmons Video on Bloomberg [March 4]
Revi wrote:
Watching that video reminded me of my conversations with people. The people asking Simmons questions didn't seem to understand what he was saying at all. They even asked when the price was going back to $60 a barrel. He made it clear that the supply was tight, and they kept asking questions like what should the government do to get cheap oil back.
They didn't hear what he was saying at all.
The only ones who knew what he was saying were us peakers.
I find it funny as well. It's like trying to teach calculus to a 3 year old.
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