Joined: Sep 20, 2004 Posts: 70 Location: Seattle, WA, USA
Posted: Tue Dec 28, 2004 12:09 pm Post subject: THE Earthquake Thread (merged)
Tsunami / Earthquake Repercussions for Peak Oil
Hello everybody, As I was watching the news about the devastation in Asia last night a bunch of ideas started coming into my head. I kept asking myself how this could affect the problems of Peak Oil. I didn't come up with too many answers but I have some questions I thought I would throw out and see what the group thinks.
1> The earthquake that started this all was HUGE. At least 9 on the Richter scale and sufficient enough in magnitude to actually shift the angle at which the earth revolves around the sun. With that much ground moving, is it possible that crevices could open up deep underground and drain out oil from accumulations closer to the surface? Perhaps the opposite could happen and new oil may come from deeper accumulations.
2> What are off-shore production capabilities in these areas? Are there drilling platforms that were eliminated during the tidal wave?
3> What is the condition of the ports in all of those countries that border the Indian Ocean? Are they obliterated? Will they be able to move crude oil, LNG, food, etc?
4> How much total energy will the planet expend to put everything back the way it was? By my imagination alone, I suspect there are several quadrillions of BTU worth of work to be done rebuilding the destroyed villages, cities, etc. Will this cause the oil peak to come even sooner?
Joined: Jul 07, 2004 Posts: 18 Location: Nevada, USA
Posted: Tue Dec 28, 2004 4:45 pm Post subject:
Eustacian wrote:
]With that much ground moving, is it possible that crevices could open up deep underground and drain out oil from accumulations closer to the surface? Perhaps the opposite could happen and new oil may come from deeper accumulations.
Earthquakes occur when a portion of a fault ruptures. Seismologists call this area a "slip patch." The magnitude of the earthquake is actually calculated based upon the physical dimensions of the slip patch, when measureable (bigger patch = bigger quake). When a slip patch forms along a fault, that means that some of the stresses near the fault have been released. Rocks on either side may move relative to one another thereby perturbing the stresses around nearby fault zones and plate boundaries. So earthquakes can change stress fields which can then cause strain to develop in other areas, such as other earthquakes. Some people believe that this is what happened in Dixie Valley, Nevada in 1954 when a large roughly 7 magnitude earthquake was immediately followed by another large earthquake a few minutes later on a different fault.
So I guess there has been a whole lot of shakin' going on, but only a little bit of a fault actually "moves" during an earthquake. I don't know for sure, but it is unlikely that new crevasses have formed that are draining oil deposits or filling them. There is some chance that sediments in the ocean near the fault have been "plowed" as one plate scraped over the other (this is how the Coast Ranges in California formed, over time). This might pose hazards to ships approaching the islands and their ports. We do know that there was a bunch of stress released near Sumatra though and how that affects the rest of the world is anyone's guess. The earth is so chopped up and has stresses orientated in so many different directions that change over time that it is nearly impossible to predict what will happen next where (except for maybe aftershocks). We'll probably never be able to predict earthquakes in neither time nor space but we'll keep trying.
EXACTLY, Penultimate and lotrfan! Maybe it's just me, but I haven't noticed too much reporting on damage to oil & gas infrastructure yet. I know things are chaotic now, but the world's energy supply takes priority with Those In Power...and I find it funny-strange that we don't KNOW anything yet. How about you?
are you trying to say that you think the tests for oil caused the earthquake??
TK I don't believe the author of the article is making that claim, merely reporting what may be nothing more than an unfortunate coincidence.
However I believe that it's certainly a possibility that should not be simply dismissed as such. The right note from a performer's throat can create sympathetic vibrations sufficient to shatter glass; who knows what effect the "right note" may have on the Earth's crust? Given the technology described, it seems quite plausible (and even probable) to me that these activities are at least partially responsible...
Joined: Sep 18, 2004 Posts: 252 Location: East Malaysia
Posted: Wed Dec 29, 2004 6:28 pm Post subject:
That one is one of our urban legend here in oil producing country. The oil is sucks up, now it is empty down there so the whole thing collapsed and earthquake is created.
The theory based on aquifers. As the aquifers been pumped dry the land above the aquifers will sinked.
Our knowledge about Gaia is as good as medical field in 16 century. Madness is caused by demons in the head. Give me a drill .
Joined: Aug 31, 2004 Posts: 275 Location: Austin, TX
Posted: Wed Dec 29, 2004 7:29 pm Post subject:
This talk of drilling having unforeseen consequences reminds me of the Lake Peigneur story.
Quote:
Flashback to Thursday, November 21, 1980. This day may seem of little importance to you. However, if you were living near New Iberia, Louisiana, you will probably never be able to forget the strange series of events that took place on this date.
Initially, this day started out just like any other day (all strange stories seem to begin this way). The sun was just about to rise on Lake Peigneur. Located on this 1,300 acre lake, which was just three feet in depth, was Jefferson Island, home to the beautiful Live Oak Gardens botanical park. Contrasting with this natural beauty were the many oil and gas wells dotting the lake's perimeter.
That one is one of our urban legend here in oil producing country. The oil is sucks up, now it is empty down there so the whole thing collapsed and earthquake is created.
I don't know for oil, but for gas that is certainly true. When the gas is produced, the pressure drops and you get very mild landshifts and earthquakes. We had several here since we're directly above the gas reservoir. They are strong enough to crack the walls of houses in a few mile radius but nothing more.
The earthquake in Asia was tectonic. Tectonic plates shift over each other. This shift is not smooth. The plates get stuck, pressure builds and is suddenly released causing an earthquake.
Perhaps there is a minute chance that the shocks from the seismic probing set it off. In that case they actually did Asia a favor. If the energy wasn't released now it would have build further causing an even more devastating earthquake.
But you have to appreciate the fact that this earthquake involves the energy equivalent of a few atomic bombs. There is no way that seismic probing can put so much energy in the ground so the energy was already there, and its release a matter of time.
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