Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Joined: May 06, 2006 Posts: 821 Location: Tustin, CA
Posted: Sat Mar 08, 2008 9:08 pm Post subject: Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
steam_cannon wrote:
Quote:
You do know that oil is presently trading over $105?
How much is that in Ameros? _________________ Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
Joined: Mar 07, 2007 Posts: 288 Location: Houston, TX
Posted: Sat Mar 08, 2008 9:17 pm Post subject: Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
Speculation is short term
we are talking about long term
Look at the link in the original post and you will see that anyone can buy oil futures at any time for less than 100 bucks. When I say anyitme it is until 2016
So you might believe in peak oil but the market does not believe in it.
When I say market, I mean buyers and sellers and that is what matters.
Joined: Sep 04, 2005 Posts: 360 Location: central MA, USA
Posted: Sat Mar 08, 2008 9:22 pm Post subject: Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
misterno wrote:
Look at the link in the original post and you will see that anyone can buy oil futures at any time for less than 100 bucks. When I say anyitme it is until 2016
So you might believe in peak oil but the market does not believe in it.
When I say market, I mean buyers and sellers and that is what matters.
"The market" was caught by surprise when oil hit $60, then $80, then $100.
If "the market" thinks oil will still be $100 in another 8 years, IMO they're going to be quite unpleasantly surprised.
Posted: Sat Mar 08, 2008 9:22 pm Post subject: Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
Just for the sake of discussion plot the price of all of the futures for one day with the date of the futures contract on the horizontal axis and the price on the vertical. Now go back each month and plot a new curve for the new futures. What you will see is that the shape of the curve hardly ever changes but it also never goes down long term for any future contract. Last year there were futures trading at $40. The futures market is a guess, a bet really about the future the reason it trails off after a cerrtain point is that everyone is forced to admit they really don't know what the price of oil is going to be in the future. Noone want to bet on super high oil 16 months out for alot of reasons, and I doubt it even makes sense to bid above todays price on a contract that is a year out. I mean one serious recession and you could see $80. But let us remind ourselves that when we first hit $70 we have a national average for gas over $3. Supposing some gouging $100 should be spaming us for somewhere over for dollars a gallon nationwide, so far it has not hit. The wake up call is going to come in about a month. What you see in the futures market is not a real expectation of the price in the future it is a hedged bet. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Posted: Sun Mar 09, 2008 3:07 am Post subject: Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
FoolYap wrote:
misterno wrote:
Look at the link in the original post and you will see that anyone can buy oil futures at any time for less than 100 bucks. When I say anyitme it is until 2016
So you might believe in peak oil but the market does not believe in it.
When I say market, I mean buyers and sellers and that is what matters.
"The market" was caught by surprise when oil hit $60, then $80, then $100.
If "the market" thinks oil will still be $100 in another 8 years, IMO they're going to be quite unpleasantly surprised.
--Steve
And 10 years ago the market believed that oil will always be around $10 a barrel
Here is a quote from reference provided at the begining of this thread by misterno:
Quote:
Crude has an upper limit. Horses are available; and also that internet thingy.
Posted: Sun Mar 09, 2008 6:46 am Post subject: Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
Quote:
So you might believe in peak oil but the market does not believe in it.
The "market" is a fictional entity. It does not "believe" anything.
People that think this way richly deserve the slamming they are about to get. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2063 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Sun Mar 09, 2008 8:09 am Post subject: Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
Quote:
WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
Maybe in 1913 dollars.
What cost $100 in 1913 would cost $2123.01 in 2007. _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 449 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Sun Mar 09, 2008 6:08 pm Post subject: Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100
Quote:
So they are going to replace oil with internet
Yes. The Internet can replace A LOT of oil. How? Well, I make my entire living on the Internet. Taught myself everything I know while I was a sheet metal construction worker. Made good money doing that and make only about 60% of that now.
But, guess what? Now I work at home in my pajamas. What I don't do is pump tons of CO² into the atmosphere sitting in the Dallas/Ft Worth traffic jams on a horrendous daily commute from the exurbs. I'm no longer helping to build what I see to be a doomed civilization. I no longer have the expense of a daily 100-mile round-trip commute, including gas, breakfast at Jack in the Box, lunch from the "roach coach", a three-beer stop at the pub on the way home, Cokes, gum, candy, potato chips, a stop here for a CD, a stop there for a couple of fishing lures for the weekend (you know, stuff I really didn't need but bought anyway on impulse or habit). That's a savings of 30%.
So, for a 10% overall cut in real net income after commuting expenses, I'm not doing too bad at all. I'll take that in order to write my own ticket any day. And I even seem to find a little extra money to put towards preps and I'm growing some of my own food now. But the best thing about it is that I have 3 hours of my day back that was spent getting to and from a jobsite.
Now, I can just hear you saying "but, but, but...EVERYBODY can't work on the Internet." And, to a certain extent you're right. But there are literally THOUSANDS UPON THOUSANDS of jobs that can be done over the Internet by tele-commuting. I would guess that we could probably take 30% of the commuting traffic off America's highways by allowing, wherever practical, employees to stay home to work.
If all those corporate administrative cubicles were moved out of all those buildings and into employees homes, that would reduce carbon emissions, reduce the use of raw materials to build floor space for those cubicles, it would relieve some of the stress on our infrastructure, and it would give our service industry a little elbow room to move around more easily, resulting, perhaps, in a more expedited and efficient system.
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