Not enough new power plants

sittinguy · Heavy Crude Joined: Sep 07, 2007 Posts: 247

Some family visting from Michigan, and the guy works for the nuke power plant there. He said it takes 3-4 years to build a coal fired power plant. And they projected they would need to start 70 new plants around the country to keep up with demand in the next few years. Because of enviromental issues there is massive red tape covered tree huggers and they only got 20 aproved so far for construction. He claims we will have power shortages in the next couple years, while they try to play catch up.

He admits that the coal plants are very dirty, and fully contributes to GW, but says we will need the power one way or another, and we all know coal gives the best bang for the buck.

I felt like this was good inside info.

I actually got to talk about PO at the party last night,, IT WAS GREAT.

NeoPeasant · Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 9:34 am Post subject: Re: Not enough new power plants

Richard Duncan (Olduvai Theory) isn't sounding so loony anymore.
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The knowledge to survive post peak will not come from our laboratories. It will come from our museums.

joeltrout · Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:19 am Post subject: Re: Not enough new power plants

So much for electric cars. Our grid couldn't handle it all now much less in 10 years.

joeltrout
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ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people.

roccman · Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:01 pm Post subject: Re: Not enough new power plants

NeoPeasant · Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: Not enough new power plants

We should all have strategies to deal with frequent extended power failures, such as how to cope with the loss of refrigeration and air conditioning in the middle of summer.
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The knowledge to survive post peak will not come from our laboratories. It will come from our museums.

IslandCrow · Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:33 pm Post subject: Re: Not enough new power plants

Tyler_JC · Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:42 pm Post subject: Re: Not enough new power plants

Before we see extended blackouts, prices for electricity are going to move up.

Leaving your computer, your TVs, the half dozen lights upstairs, and the massage chair on all night will become an expensive mistake.

The electrical market is a market. It's not a government service. Prices rise as demand begins to approach capacity. I just don't see consumers wasting as much power as they do with 15 cent, 20 cent, 25 cent or more kilowatt/hours.

There's a lot we can do to improve efficiency before succumbing to rolling blackouts.
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"www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."

gnm · Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:56 pm Post subject: Re: Not enough new power plants

A tightly regulated market Tyler. PNM in New Mexico badly needed to raise rates to upgrade infrastructure and absorb increases from commodities (coal and NG primarily) - the state refused to allow the rate increases and PNM responded by laying off 1800 people and selling their gas (NG) division. Tell me how that translates to free market variance for electricity.

Oh, I should add that many people started seeing regular blackouts (load shedding?) late last summer. So rate increases need not precede blackouts. It still cost the same (when you could get it).

-G
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All right, you primitive screw-heads, listen up!

dinopello · Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:59 pm Post subject: Re: Not enough new power plants

I went to a Virginia power open house in my neighborhood where they were describing the work that is already underway

to upgrade the electrical infrastructure in my county.

They are completely rebuilding the substation that serves my area and then internetworking several subtations with 230kV lines that can instantly switch power in case of shutdown of parts of the grid. This involves digging these trenches (not easy or inexpensive in an urban area) everywhere and installing enormous copper cables. I kept thinking about how much all that copper costs.

Tyler_JC · Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 2:15 pm Post subject: Re: Not enough new power plants

Two nights ago I was talking with an analyst from a company that specializes in "forecasting" the electricity market in the Northeast. It is very much a free market up here.

The major restriction is that prices can't rise above $1,000/MW without the consent of the regulatory commission. Currently the price is around $73...so I don't see us hitting that $1,000/MW level without a major catastrophe.

Map of prices

If PNM allows blackouts to continue in New Mexico, it's shareholders will revolt and the company will go under. (Yes, it is publicly traded) The power plants will be bought up by a responsible company and the situation will improve.

The question we have to ask ourselves is what is the level of incompetence of the managers of PNM?

Judging by the fact that its shares have fallen by 70% over the past year...I might be buying solar panels.
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"www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."

gnm · Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 2:20 pm Post subject: Re: Not enough new power plants

What guarantees would any potential purchaser of PNM have that the state regulators would let them raise rates to allow for needed infrastructure upgrades and to accommodate commodity price increases?

Solar panels.... yup.

-G
_________________
All right, you primitive screw-heads, listen up!

aflatoxin · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 31, 2005 Posts: 223

I do a lot of work for PNM and APS.

PNM looks to be a bloated, disorginized disaster. They had a lot of merger and new build out activity the last few years, and it's catching up to them.

There are a lot of new power plants in the works in this part of the US. There is a 600 MW gas plant scheduled in Belen, a 150 MW upgrade in Las Cruces. Rumors of a new 230 mW gas plant in Albuquerque. A 42 mW plant in Silver City is supposed to be brought back. The 30 mW biomass plant in Edgewood. Desert Rock and another unit at San Juan are the only coal units that I'm aware of.

On the other side of the az-nm border, There are rumors of one or two more units at Cholla, 1-2 new units at Springerville, and another unit at Page. I've also heard that there are plans to put 10 more gas units at Gila Bend.

One of the bigwigs at APS told me a week ago they were going into solar energy in a big way.

APS and PNM also have a 4 mW nuke plant that is the biggest taxpayer in the state of AZ, and the biggest nuke plant in the US. A few years back, one of the PNM engineers that I work with told me that it was the most profitable asset in PNM's portfolio. I would not be surprised if a new nuke plant is in the works.

None of this solves the underlying problem: Our way of life is unsustainable.

darren · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 07, 2005 Posts: 131

Tyler_JC · Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 6:43 pm Post subject: Re: Not enough new power plants

aflatoxin · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 31, 2005 Posts: 223

I meant MW, megawatts. I have a sticking shift key.

There have only been a few gigawatt size projects in recent years that I've been involved in:

Chuck Lenzie in Nevada
Moss Landing in California
Red hawk in Arizona
Gila Bend in Arizona
Forney power in Texas

These were all combined cycle gas turbines. They go up pretty fast. Gas prices go up pretty fast too.