I don't think it makes much difference. Only about 10% can be extracted and the type of extraction is fairly complex. It wouldn't come into major production for at least 10 years so I wouldn't get too optimistic.
When I hear such stories, the first thing I ask is: "At what RATE and at what COST?" Because all the oil under the ground means nothing unless you can get it out fast enough.
And sure enough, they leave it to page two to tell you about the low permeability of the formation.
Estimates for ultimate oil contained in the entire Bakken play range from 271 billion to 503 billion barrels, with a mean of 413 billion barrels of technically recoverable and irrecoverable oil.[5]
This massive estimate appears to dwarf the estimated 50 billion to 70 billion barrels of technically recoverable and irrecoverable oil in Alaska's North Slope. A conservative estimate of Bakken's technically recoverable oil would be 1% to 3% percent, or between 4.1 and 12.4 billion barrels of oil, due to the fact that Bakken's shale is so tight. Recoverable oil estimates in the Alaska formation are 30% to 50%, or a mean of 26 billion barrels.
It's as if someone said, "I have a million dollars for you!...
in a vault, under ice!"
_________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 4:54 pm Post subject: Re: "Saskatchewan may be sitting on oil bonanza"
killJOY wrote:
When I hear such stories, the first thing I ask is: "At what RATE and at what COST?" Because all the oil under the ground means nothing unless you can get it out fast enough.
And sure enough, they leave it to page two to tell you about the low permeability of the formation.
Estimates for ultimate oil contained in the entire Bakken play range from 271 billion to 503 billion barrels, with a mean of 413 billion barrels of technically recoverable and irrecoverable oil.[5]
This massive estimate appears to dwarf the estimated 50 billion to 70 billion barrels of technically recoverable and irrecoverable oil in Alaska's North Slope. A conservative estimate of Bakken's technically recoverable oil would be 1% to 3% percent, or between 4.1 and 12.4 billion barrels of oil, due to the fact that Bakken's shale is so tight. Recoverable oil estimates in the Alaska formation are 30% to 50%, or a mean of 26 billion barrels.
It's as if someone said, "I have a million dollars for you!...
in a vault, under ice!"
That 1-3% is only a conservative estimate.
http://www.nd.gov/ndic/ic-press/bakken-form-06.pdf
^
"How much of the generated oil is recoverable remains to be determined. Estimates of 50%, 18%, and 3 to 10% have been published."
Nobody really knows. The only thing to do is start drilling.
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 5:02 pm Post subject: Re: "Saskatchewan may be sitting on oil bonanza"
Incidentally, in addition to the boom in Saskatchewan in the article which opened this thread, there's a big boom in drilling on the American side of the border. Here's some articles from a couple local North Dakota papers, in case anyone's interested:
Joined: Jun 15, 2007 Posts: 563 Location: St.Albert, AB
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 5:08 pm Post subject: Re: "Saskatchewan may be sitting on oil bonanza"
Even if 50% of the oil is extractable with current technology, how long would it take before we could produce, say, over 1 mbd? What is the EROEI?
I always have a feeling that articles like this are made for reasons beyond their face value. Growth in the housing market in Western Canada has reached a plateau, Saskatchewan has a newly elected conservative government, the Edmonton Journal is owned by CanWest News Service which controls some 20 major papers in Canada and is known to be a fairly conservative paper.
I'm not going to make any connections, but these overly optimistic articles about major oil discoveries and the possibility of continuous and infinite growth always seem deceiving. Don't want to make any assumptions, I just get a feeling. Feelings don't constitute a reliable argument so I will leave it at that.
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 5:11 pm Post subject: Re: "Saskatchewan may be sitting on oil bonanza"
killJOY wrote:
When I hear such stories, the first thing I ask is: "At what RATE and at what COST?" Because all the oil under the ground means nothing unless you can get it out fast enough.
And sure enough, they leave it to page two to tell you about the low permeability of the formation.
Incidentally, that 2nd page also tells you that they're increasing their recovery rate:
"While current technology will be able to extract about 15 per cent of the oil in place, Smith believes new techniques will be able to increase recovery rates well beyond that."
The most recent estimate in the state of ND PDF document I linked puts the amount of oil in the Bakken formation at 300 billion barrels. The 15% recovery rate the oilman above claimed would yield 45 billion recoverable barrels. And if, as that same oilman says, the recovery rate is almost certain to go up, the recoverable amount, of course, will be even higher.
Joined: Aug 30, 2005 Posts: 277 Location: Second Vermont Republic
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 5:21 pm Post subject: Re: "Saskatchewan may be sitting on oil bonanza"
I'm skeptical too, but I would like to point out that if this had been a "Saudi Arabia running out of oil!" article, you guys would have been all over it like flies on turd. Better to take everything with a grain of salt.
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 5:24 pm Post subject: Re: "Saskatchewan may be sitting on oil bonanza"
Nicholai wrote:
Even if 50% of the oil is extractable with current technology, how long would it take before we could produce, say, over 1 mbd? What is the EROEI?
I always have a feeling that articles like this are made for reasons beyond their face value. Growth in the housing market in Western Canada has reached a plateau, Saskatchewan has a newly elected conservative government, the Edmonton Journal is owned by CanWest News Service which controls some 20 major papers in Canada and is known to be a fairly conservative paper.
I'm not going to make any connections, but these overly optimistic articles about major oil discoveries and the possibility of continuous and infinite growth always seem deceiving. Don't want to make any assumptions, I just get a feeling. Feelings don't constitute a reliable argument so I will leave it at that.
This is not just some Canadian propaganda. I've been following news on this particular oil formation for almost 2 years when I read an article about it early last year in the Wall Street Journal. At first I thought it sounded too good to be true, but as I started following news about it, it seemed to be more and more to a viable play. To be sure it's got a steep learning curve for those drilling it, but now that they've figured out *how* to drill it, they're getting some great results.
Some more links, in case you're still skeptical . . .
Joined: Jun 15, 2007 Posts: 563 Location: St.Albert, AB
Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 12:02 am Post subject: Re: "Saskatchewan may be sitting on oil bonanza"
Thank you for the links Oil-Finder. How long would it take for, say, 1mbd production to occur?
With Cantarel depleting at 12% yearly and salt water injections still taking place in Gwahar, do you think this will be able to stave off a peak in global production or simply help prolong the plateau as the major fields go into hasty decline?
Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 12:19 am Post subject: Re: "Saskatchewan may be sitting on oil bonanza"
Nicholai wrote:
Thank you for the links Oil-Finder. How long would it take for, say, 1mbd production to occur?
According to the EIA, oil production in North Dakota was about 3.8 million barrels in July, which translates to about 123,700 barrels/day. Most - if not all - of this was from the Bakken. In the other state containing the Bakken - Montana, - July oil production was about 2.9 million barrels, or roughly 93,700 barrels/day. The majority of that - but not all of it - was from the Bakken. So we're talking current Bakken production on the US side at maybe 200K barrels/day. With the recent flurry of drilling and drilling plans there, 1 million barrels/day doesn't seem too far-fetched, though to be sure we're talking several years out. Currently, one of the major constraints is pipeline capacity, but I believe one of my links above says that they've recently started building a new pipeline (or expanding an existing one). There are also preliminary plans for at least 1 refinery in ND, and I think maybe 2.
I don't know about the Saskatchewan side. Small parts of the Bakken also extend into South Dakota and Manitoba, but for practical purposes we can ignore those.
Crescent Point said it has expanded the size of the Bakken resource play in Saskatchewan by drilling a number of step out wells with 100 per cent success and estimates it may contain up to three billion barrels of original oil in place.
The North Dakota and Montana EIA links I gave above show how much oil output in those two states has increased recently. Maybe one of you Canadians know of a site which shows Saskatchewan oil production?
Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 1:27 am Post subject: Re: "Saskatchewan may be sitting on oil bonanza"
Nicholai wrote:
The hype made it seem as though this was the new Athabasca tar sands.
It will be important, but it won't be a Cantarel n'est pas?
To date, Cantarell has produced about 11.5 billion barrels of oil. The geologists who have recently examined the Bakken formation are talking in terms of hundreds of billions of barrels. So yes, this could easily eclipse Cantarell.
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