How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2005 8:59 pm Post subject: New here, PO & information society
I'm 25 year old graphics student in Finland, and been worried about PO situation for a while. My personal plan regarding PO is to finish my school asap, get to proper work and gather resources by how situation seems to go. I do see situation of Finland and most of EU relatively positive, worse times and hard measures ahead but I dont believe that civilisation will collapse, huge amounts of people will die or we will fall to anarchy - at least here. It will just be different. There are other big issues about to happen as well, like climate change and mass movement from islamic countries.
I believe EU will stay together, though change to different classes of countries with different rights - specially with Turkey. Finland quite probaply does everything it can to stay with tight core. In Eu and USA you have seen recently changes in laws to better polices information awarness - they do and will look closer what we do and have larger rights. Policestate - maybe, but these measures are quite neccessary to control increasing crime rates. Europe has been trough dark times before and somehow we'll manage trough this one.
Though consume of un-neccessary goods will be much lower, I believe (and personally hope) that the need for entertainment will be here to stay. People will need something to take their thoughts off bad times. It is also viable media for delivering information and propaganda. Techinacally, development of it hardware would stall in mainstream, but wont disappear, durable machines will be upgraded and repair business will flourish. Also Interenet will work in most of EU, at least Finlands network backbone is very secured. Effecient company runningt will be very needed, so databases, communication, develompent and adjusting to new conditions will offer work in IT field. Availability of Open Source programs is good to remember.
So, if Orwellianish "sports and circus" police state will take us trough hard times and games industry will stay alive trough those hard yeas, I plan to get hired to some big corporation, work my way up and doing my best to help my society. If not, I think of something else, survive I will And think of historically, we live trough very intersting times, what a great change to document, do art and help things important to you.
edit: and if consiracy theories point to right direction, global goverment it will be, and that would be beneficial if we meet alien races
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4357 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2005 10:07 pm Post subject:
Hello, welcome to the Peak Oil Cult. We try to be friendly and rational, except for Specop__007 . If you have any questions, we'll be happy to answer them as best we can.
Regarding your situation, I wouldn't be too sure about the internet and computer technology. It takes a lot of energy to maintain all of these little systems. I also don't expect the EU to stay together for any considerable length of time post peak. Keeping an alliance with that many countries with such different interests requires a stable political system and a solid economy. If a depression hits, watch Spain blame Germany, Germany blame France, and so on. I may be wrong, but it is certainly something to watch.
I think they'll priorize it very high to keep basic information structures working, and consumerwise, mobile phones/wireless platforms will be common if current growth continues few more years. I'm certain there will be lots of conflicts among European nations, but at least I see scandinavian countries can work together. Nationalistic ideas will come more popular, in good and bad. If there are inner conflicts with islam, there could be whiteflight towards north. My backup plan is to farm, hunt, fish and grow animals at my familys cottage where my grandparents farmed it 50 years ago, thou I doubt that situatiotn getting so bad during my time. - hoping we avoid ice-age. hmmm, how people at siberia climate survive?
I'm collecting *krhmdownloading* bbc-documentaries and books if teaching is ever needed and organising discussion/planning event about the issue with friends.
Offtopic link but interesting reading www.newspeakdictionary.com
Joined: Jul 21, 2004 Posts: 1238 Location: Suburban tar sands
Posted: Sun Jan 02, 2005 1:33 am Post subject:
Tyler_JC wrote:
Keeping an alliance with that many countries with such different interests requires a stable political system and a solid economy. If a depression hits, watch Spain blame Germany, Germany blame France, and so on. I may be wrong, but it is certainly something to watch.
Watch Utah blame Maine, Maine blame California , and so on.
very good point by Keith. I think the united states have a better chance than EU in maintaining the union in hard times, if we look at the situation now. If we look 20-30 years ahead, the EU will be much closer to the american structure than today, and that might keep the EU together.
As to Turkeys membership I have the following comment. There are a lot of Kurds in Turkey, a people without a state, and they also live in Iraq and Iran. If Turkey becomes a member of the EU it will be through major alertations of its society, and they will have to treat the Kurds much better. This will convince the Kurds in the Northern part of Iraw to bring all the Kurds together in a Turkish Republic, extending that country well into present Iraq. In Northern Iraq there's a lot of oil. This in it self might turn out to be a Welcome mat from the EU.
A bit far-fetched perhaps, but we're all in the foresseing business here, aren't we?
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4357 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Sun Jan 02, 2005 9:03 am Post subject:
Keith_McClary wrote
Quote:
Watch Utah blame Maine, Maine blame California , and so on.
The US has a common leader, a common language, a common identity, and a basic nationalistic feeling among the masses. The European Union lacks all of these things. Further down the production slope, Maine and California may no longer be able to communicate with each other, but that would lead to anger. The US has been together for 140 years without civil war. The EU still has problems with nations "not getting along". If you have to pick the stronger alliance, my money's on the US of A.
France has an increasingly Arab/Muslim population. That may lead to a political revolution based on appeasing that group of people in France. This could cause a whiteflight northward. But remember, the world is heating up, that warm water you get could vanish if Greenland melts...
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And think of historically, we live trough very intersting times, what a great change to document, do art and help things important to you.
. If you have any questions, we'll be happy to answer them as best we can.
