Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Sun Jan 02, 2005 9:39 am Post subject: Peak Oil in 4 Steps
Many people express frustration when explaining peak oil theory to newcomers.
Seems to me there are two parts, proving peak is at hand, and defining consequences. Since you are all familiar with the reality of an eventual mid-point for extraction, I'll skip the first part.
I have been trying to reduce the argument myself for some time.
So how about this:
1. Since man began using the energy stored in nature, that use has grown in size. There is no instance of global energy consumption shrinking in history.
2. Despite conservation, more efficient technologies, or new energy sources global energy consumption has always increased. The reason is simple; economies require energy. Like energy use, the global economy has always grown larger throughout history.
3. If energy production can't grow to meet this increased demand, then these economies cannot continue to grow.
4. The only examples where individual economies didn't grow are called recessions & depressions.
Simple enough? _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Hmm, couldn't have put that better myself, Aaron. Something I will definitely keep in mind when trying to explain PO to folk. Everyone I've spoken to about PO seems to have a real hard time getting their head around it. However, I can't blame them; for anyone who hasn't done a lot of research, reading and listening then it can be very, very hard to come to terms with the fact that their comfortable, stable way of life may not remain quite so comfortable or stable for much longer.
Joined: Dec 07, 2004 Posts: 463 Location: Cheshire, England
Posted: Sun Jan 02, 2005 9:42 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil in 4 Steps
Aaron wrote:
Many people express frustration when explaining peak oil theory to newcomers.
Seems to me there are two parts, proving peak is at hand, and defining consequences. Since you are all familiar with the reality of an eventual mid-point for extraction, I'll skip the first part.
I have been trying to reduce the argument myself for some time.
So how about this:
1. Since man began using the energy stored in nature, that use has grown in size. There is no instance of global energy consumption shrinking in history.
2. Despite conservation, more efficient technologies, or new energy sources global energy consumption has always increased. The reason is simple; economies require energy. Like energy use, the global economy has always grown larger throughout history.
3. If energy production can't grow to meet this increased demand, then these economies cannot continue to grow.
4. The only examples where individual economies didn't grow are called recessions & depressions.
Simple enough?
Are you asking about;
- the problem of introducing non-believers to PO, or
- figuring out what the differences between now and post-peak will be,
- or, what to do for the best?
Monte _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
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Hmm, couldn't have put that better myself, Aaron. Something I will definitely keep in mind when trying to explain PO to folk. Everyone I've spoken to about PO seems to have a real hard time getting their head around it. However, I can't blame them; for anyone who hasn't done a lot of research, reading and listening then it can be very, very hard to come to terms with the fact that their comfortable, stable way of life may not remain quite so comfortable or stable for much longer.
