Joined: Mar 09, 2007 Posts: 219 Location: No. Calif.
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 12:56 am Post subject: Re: American cancels more than 1,000 flights
AirlinePilot wrote:
No shortage of fuel that I can see yet. Plenty of supply.
It has everything to do with the latest FAA crackdowns and what happened at Southwest.
Listened to some of the congressional hearings of how the FAA was directed to be subservient to the airlines and ignore violations. One directive was that each regional FAA office head was to visit in person each airline's regional office and ask the airline representative if there is anything the FAA can do for them (basically showing their subservience so that politicos can justify hitting them up for contributions).
I presume that the threat of more FAA fines and possibly of being sued if anything should happen to one of these planes was worth the cost of the grounding.
However, the conspiracy seekers here seem quite a bit trigger-happy.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4424 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 1:22 am Post subject: Re: American cancels more than 1,000 flights
They are always trigger happy. That's why they post here.
I agree with AP's analysis.
If a plane crashes because of faulty wiring (or if the FAA sues them/cuts their subsidy)...American Airlines is finished.
They are losing a fortune right now by grounding the whole fleet, it is most certainly NOT a ploy to save fuel.
They can always add a fuel surcharge on to the cost of the flight rather than canceling the whole thing.
If AA can't fix the wiring problem soon, they may vanish as an airline.
Does anyone think AA's creditors are going to sit by and let the airline play electrician instead of bringing in revenue?
My intuition says AA goes into some form of bankruptcy/major cutback in service by the end of the year.
$112 oil is killing the airlines. Unless they can figure out a way to pass this on to the consumers FAST...it's game over for the airlines that aren't sitting on a couple billion bucks. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 2:06 am Post subject: Re: American cancels more than 1,000 flights
Tyler makes good arguments, reasonable, he has not been extreme for a few years now. But every so often I start to wonder whose payroll he is on.
If we are going to go conspiracy let's take it all the way. I would like to see the details of which flights were grounded and who was on those flights and their itineraries so we can do some data mining and see if any 'uncomfortable' correlations arise.
Whatever. I'm glad they are doing the required maintenance. It's what we expect and most of it we probably take for granted. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 7:56 am Post subject: Re: American cancels more than 1,000 flights
Tyler_JC wrote:
I agree with AP's analysis.
If a plane crashes because of faulty wiring (or if the FAA sues them/cuts their subsidy)...American Airlines is finished.
They are losing a fortune right now by grounding the whole fleet, it is most certainly NOT a ploy to save fuel.
but it is saving fuel and will most likely help their competitors who've kept up with maintenance over the years.
Tyler_JC wrote:
They can always add a fuel surcharge on to the cost of the flight rather than canceling the whole thing.
If AA can't fix the wiring problem soon, they may vanish as an airline.
Does anyone think AA's creditors are going to sit by and let the airline play electrician instead of bringing in revenue?
My intuition says AA goes into some form of bankruptcy/major cutback in service by the end of the year.
$112 oil is killing the airlines. Unless they can figure out a way to pass this on to the consumers FAST...it's game over for the airlines that aren't sitting on a couple billion bucks.
This is the safest thing the consumer and FAA could ask for and gives AA a chance to “gracefully” go out of business. Much better scenario than having to deal with the legal system and the possibility of higher ups doing time for negligence.
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:25 am Post subject: Re: American cancels more than 1,000 flights
Tyler_JC wrote:
They are always trigger happy. That's why they post here.
I agree with AP's analysis.
If a plane crashes because of faulty wiring (or if the FAA sues them/cuts their subsidy)...American Airlines is finished.
They are losing a fortune right now by grounding the whole fleet, it is most certainly NOT a ploy to save fuel.
They can always add a fuel surcharge on to the cost of the flight rather than canceling the whole thing.
If AA can't fix the wiring problem soon, they may vanish as an airline.
Does anyone think AA's creditors are going to sit by and let the airline play electrician instead of bringing in revenue?
My intuition says AA goes into some form of bankruptcy/major cutback in service by the end of the year.
$112 oil is killing the airlines. Unless they can figure out a way to pass this on to the consumers FAST...it's game over for the airlines that aren't sitting on a couple billion bucks.
Look, I don't believe 9/11 was false flag. I don't believe there was a second gunmen on the grassy knoll. I don't believe the CFR runs everything.
However, when was the last time the government shut down an entire company for a 1/4 of an inch. When was the last time THIS ADMINISTRATION did anything anti-business.
It is comepletely understandable that people who believe the government is intentionally misdirecting attention away from peak oil would notice this. They would think the government wants a different explanation to AA's demise then oil.
That having been said, I personally think this is the sort of change you see when major change in congress occurs. Most people thought we would see a change in policy in Iraq. Thats too big. This is the stuff that happens. We have had a hands-off president for 7 years. The congress is forcing the hands back on. This is political. It has nothing to do with peak oil or airline safety.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2415 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 9:35 am Post subject: Re: American cancels more than 1,000 flights
Gandalf_the_White wrote:
TIf we are going to go conspiracy let's take it all the way. I would like to see the details of which flights were grounded and who was on those flights and their itineraries so we can do some data mining and see if any 'uncomfortable' correlations arise.
Its not about fuel its about numbers and folks covering their ass. I talked with an FAA inspector about two weeks ago. He told me that the Southwest issue is much bigger than the press knew about. Folks are losing their jobs over it. Across the board things are going to be different with oversight and compliance. There will be no slack or looking the other way anymore.
American has just over 600 aircraft. 300 of them are MD-80's. They have by far the biggest exposure due to that fleet size. Its no surprise they cancelled that many flights. Its probably near half their daily schedule.
After talking with one of our (Delta) mechanics, the wiring issue is not a high priority safety item. Its just one of many things which had a bit of ambiguity to the instructions. The FAA has moved into a "no tolerance" mode due to the Southwest debacle and I predict more things like this happening as they focus on each and every nigling little item that comes up or existed prior to that event.
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:03 am Post subject: Re: American cancels more than 1,000 flights
CNN is running a story about American having a bunch of problems with the functioning of the nose gear on the MD80's. Reportedly they've had 23 incidents in the last couple of months with the nose gear not wanting to retract. They were interviewing a pilot who described his incident. When the gear got stuck, apparently it tripped some breakers or something because it also knocked out the cabin pressure and the deice systems. They went straight back to the airport, and he said the plane was completely covered with ice by the time they got it landed. I was wondering if you had any thoughts on that AP. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2415 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 11:11 am Post subject: Re: American cancels more than 1,000 flights
Any problem with the nose gear not going up/down has a direct effect on whether or not the aircraft systems think they in the air or not. It has sensors tied to the weight on wheels and the physical position of the nose gear which If not in the correct position can cause other problems. Not that surprising. Most of the time the MD-80 is a very reliable and safe aircraft with lots of back up systems which are mostly mechanical in nature. Ive found it to be overall a pretty reliable aircraft, at least here at Delta.
At Delta we have not had such problems that I'm aware of with our MD-88's. They are just slightly newer versions of the same aircraft.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4280 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 11:20 am Post subject: Re: American cancels more than 1,000 flights
American canceled 900 more today. I still say its because of fuel costs. I don't care if i'm wrong. Nothing new here! Ask my wife
My BS meter is spiking on this whole "ordeal".
I feel sorry for all these people who were SUPPOSE to be somewhere. Airports suck. Maybe people will get the point and start driving/taking Amtrak/cargo ship to where they need to go. Planes are overrated unless your a millionaire and can lease a private jet.
Maybe this is a method to get people to STOP flying. Its either that or u get Al Quda to smash them into buildings? _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
Joined: Sep 09, 2004 Posts: 383 Location: Upstate New York, U.S.A.
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 11:40 am Post subject: Re: American cancels more than 1,000 flights
AirlinePilot wrote:
Frank,
No shortage of fuel that I can see yet. Plenty of supply.
It has everything to do with the latest FAA crackdowns and what happened at Southwest. The problem here is that we wont transition to a more tightly overseen industry by the FAA without some pain. My guess is this is going to go on for a while until the system works through all the slightly questionable stuff from years of not so above board inspection and monitoring practices by both the FAA and the industry.
The issue here is how much impact one thing or another has on airline schedules. Since AMR's fleet is made up of about 1/3rd MD-80's it has a significant impact on them. It's not about saving fuel, it probably will cost them more in bad press and customer issues due to the cancellations. Standby for Delta to get whacked, unless by some miracle we complied correctly with the same issue. Somehow I doubt it. We will see.
As a pilot, how do you and other onboard staff feel about improper maintenance on aircraft?
I know as a passenger, this is always one of the things that concerns me; safety with regard to maintenance, particularly in times like these when the industry is under significant financial pressures. The temptation to cut corners seems great, especially when fines that are levied may be miniscule compared to the savings of taking a shortcut. This combined with what appears to be a history of lackluster scrutiny by the FAA makes me not confident about the safety of flying now.
Olafr _________________ "I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately, to front only the essential facts of life, and see if I could not learn what it had to teach, and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived." - Henry David Thoreau
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4424 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 12:25 pm Post subject: Re: American cancels more than 1,000 flights
But the elasticity of demand for air travel isn't very high.
People have to fly to get around this massive country of ours. If you need to be in Denver tomorrow, your only high speed option is an airplane.
Airlines should be pushing the extra cost of fuel along to consumers.
Instead they are keeping prices artificially low in order to drive the crappy airlines out of business, no?
The airlines with large stockpiles of cash can afford to lose a little money over the next couple years in order to emerge as the dominant player when the competitors are dead.
It's a war of attrition and SkyBus DIED.
But that's not the case with AA. They have enough equity to play the game for a while. They aren't on the verge of collapse like SkyBus was.
At least not according to last quarter's balance sheet which showed them sitting on $2.7 billion in unused credit. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4280 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 1:25 pm Post subject: Re: American cancels more than 1,000 flights
Midwest Airlines ground 13 MD's today. _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2415 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 1:35 pm Post subject: Re: American cancels more than 1,000 flights
Delta only had a handful of cancellations yesterday and a few this morning. Our fleet was inspected mostly last night. We are in compliance apparently.
If I don't feel the aircraft is safe as the captain, I dont go, its simple.
This is not really a safety issue IMHO. Its a CYA drill on both sides of the table.
There are obvious times its not safe and there are not so obvious times. Everyone here is pretty serious about safety. Just look at the industry track record the last few years and compare it to just about anything else. I believe we are doing a darn good job at it.
Frank,
I really don't see any conspiracy here. Not yet at least.
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