How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3261 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:14 am Post subject: The Last Days of Cheap Chinese
WHY AMERICAN CONSUMERS ARE ABOUT TO START PAYING MORE FOR CLOTHES, ELECTRONICS, TOYS, AND JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING ELSE. By Alexandra Harney
… The era of cheap Chinese consumer goods may finally be ending, thanks to irrepressible inflation. Now when the Chinese present their lists, some American importers are conceding higher prices, meaning that American shoppers, for the first time in years, are starting to pick up the tab for rising costs in China. Some Chinese factories are now asking their American customers for price increases of as much as 20 percent to 30 percent. …
But now a perfect storm has hit China's manufacturers. So far this year, the renminbi has been appreciating at a 16 percent annualized rate. And prices for raw materials, which account for 60 percent to 70 percent of manufacturers' costs, are soaring. Hundred-dollar-a-barrel oil has raised transport costs and the price of oil-related materials such as plastics. Although some economists expect raw material prices to weaken in the second half of this year, in the long term, the emergence of millions of new car drivers, home buyers, and office workers in India and China will keep the price of steel, plastic, and other raw materials high. …
Consumers to get hit by yet another storm _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3261 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:31 am Post subject: Re: The Last Days of Cheap Chinese
This ought to wake up the sheeple a bit more (provided their alarm clocks are not Chinese) when they discover they can't afford even the cheap junk.
Remember about 15-20 years ago when everyone put down the cheap Japanese junk in the marketplace? _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Joined: Apr 07, 2005 Posts: 225 Location: West of Chicago
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:00 am Post subject: Re: The Last Days of Cheap Chinese
Funny you should mention --
I've got a case of the late winter blues (too many house projects, crappy weather, too much take home work, bored with my instruments, tired of cleaning, etc.) and I had $60 stashed away from gigs.
Mrs. Lupus and I splashed out on Red Lobster to get me out of the house. Weird feeling (we simply never do that -- I'd rather get chops and get them on the grill) but this little flashing light in the back of my mind said I'd like to have crab legs before the price went through the roof here in Illinois.
Anyway, it was a great date night -- it unwound me a little and I got to spend quality husband time with the mrs. and not be a bitch to her.
Now, if I could just find a way to farm Alaskan King Crab sustainably here in Chicagoland, I'll be loaded.
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:59 am Post subject: Re: The Last Days of Cheap Chinese
This will also create feed back loops as higher prices will mean more money coming into China (unless the US wants to make plastic crap for $0.50/hr themselves) so more inflation in China.
I'm expecting the Chinese to start yanking their Dollar peg shortly after the Olympics, as well as dumping treasuries.
Gotta keep up those big smiles for the Olympics. _________________ Angry yet?
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 11:08 am Post subject: Re: The Last Days of Cheap Chinese
FoxV wrote:
This will also create feed back loops as higher prices will mean more money coming into China (unless the US wants to make plastic crap for $0.50/hr themselves) so more inflation in China.
.
Surely Chinese inflation comes from higher prices especialy in dollars and a free floating Yuan or at least re-adjusted will take some of the dollar weakness out of the comodity prices and the other source in increased demand not meeting supply for both commodities and manufactures, which will see costs in China fall as recession dampens demand.
China buys US treasuries so the US can carry on spending and buying Chinese finished goods. (in a very simplified way).
A weaker dollar will return higher end US manufactures to a more competative price, easing the recession but the loss of so many jobs and factories overseas will hurt the natural advantage of a weakening currency. (up to a point).
Higher energy costs will also put a small additional cost on products made far away.
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 6:19 pm Post subject: Re: The Last Days of Cheap Chinese
If Chinese stop taking dollars, it's time for more regime change. _________________ People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement & cannibalism.
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 6:39 pm Post subject: Re: The Last Days of Cheap Chinese
Even if there won't be the problems of increasing price of oil price, materials etc. things won't go on like this. Do you think that the Chinese like to produce eternally cheap products miserably paid in horrible working conditions? Even if peak oil would not happen one day the Chinese manufactures want to get more for their goods, especially if there is not anyone else who produces.
Joined: Aug 07, 2005 Posts: 302 Location: Columbia, MO
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 7:30 pm Post subject: Re: The Last Days of Cheap Chinese
China will evolve like we did. In the 1920s there were low wage sweatshop/factory jobs galore - the 30's less so, but there came the rise of unions and that took care of that for some segments of the economy. After WWII the economy came first. Pollution was a good thing - it meant jobs. The suburbs were built for people to get away from the nasty air of the industrial city.
Except China will run into the problem of energy depletion, where we didn't until we had developed a largely post industrial civilization. The idea that China can be the industrial breadbasket of the world will be curtailed by expensive oil, and they will sink back into a more subsistence economy just like we will. Only they'll have the factories. We won't.
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 3:55 am Post subject: Re: The Last Days of Cheap Chinese
dooberheim wrote:
China will evolve like we did. In the 1920s there were low wage sweatshop/factory jobs galore - the 30's less so, but there came the rise of unions and that took care of that for some segments of the economy. After WWII the economy came first. Pollution was a good thing - it meant jobs. The suburbs were built for people to get away from the nasty air of the industrial city.
The 30s were pretty much a 'lost generation' in terms of productivity but they went along way in terms of workers rights, but this was because of the US workers having the vote. WWII however meant is was the 60s before other nations had the infrastructure to start competing with the US and the world was less open to international competition.
China will face stiff competition from the rest of Asia and parts of Africa, the FSU and so on as soon as labour prices rise. Their will have to grow to a higher wage economy largley from efficiancy and technological improvements (more capital intesive machinary) not merely from paying there workers more.
They also are far more corrupt and less flexible than the US system was. This tends to be a barrier to innovation. There is only so far a 'follower' economy can get by undercutting worker rights and pay before it saturates the market and those behind it start to catch up.
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 12:40 am Post subject: Re: The Last Days of Cheap Chinese
OilFinder2 wrote:
FoxV wrote:
I'm expecting the Chinese to start yanking their Dollar peg shortly after the Olympics, as well as dumping treasuries.
The Chinese dumped their dollar peg about 3 years ago.
yes and no.
Technically you're right; but the Chinese still have a policy that states the Yuan should not appreciate too much against the dollar. Besides they're still holding onto $1.6 Trillion in US currency reserves so the Chinese may have "dumped the dollar peg" but they certainly have NOT "dumped the dollar" yet. BIG difference, this is just the calm before the storm.
A good example of literally "dumping the dollar" would be what Saddam Hussein did awhile back and we all know what happened after that.....
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