I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 7:33 pm Post subject: Re: Some homes worth less than their copper pipes
Steel has serious corrosion problems and has 10-40 times the resistivity of copper, making it is useless for wiring. In comparison, aluminium has only around 1.5 times the resistivity of copper and is very commonly used.
I would encourage people to spend a little time on LME, there is some educational value to be derived from it.
As an exercise, plot spot copper prices from 1 January 1998 to the present day. See what has happened? Are these news stories any surprise?
Then change the start date to 1 January 2006. It may of course be coincidence, but the recent cyclical pattern fits closely with the procurement cycle in heavy industry.
If you want to see one of those "we are so screwed" charts, plot spot lead from 1 January 1998 to the present day. Seeing that happen brought a few things home to me in a way a hundred news articles on housing collapse could not. Remember, this is lead.
Lastly, just to be mischievous I suggest gold bugs repeat the exercise for zinc and nickel. That nickel move took 3˝ months.
We live in interesting times, that is for sure. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 8:17 pm Post subject: Re: Some homes worth less than their copper pipes
I read a most horrific story about vandals breaking into rural churches in Quebec and raiding their bronze and silver religious artifacts, many dating back 200 years, and even copper from the roof, gutters and downpipes.
Its beyond stealing, its sacrilege.
But, beyond that, just think how much sacrifice it took many years ago for those parishioners to buy those artifacts, as these were just rural people, not the wealthy. How much labor would it take back then, in the early 1800's to buy even one ounce of silver? Its a real slap in the face to them, and to God, to take that and melt it down into crude materials.
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 8:23 pm Post subject: Re: Some homes worth less than their copper pipes
Denny wrote:
Its beyond stealing, its sacrilege.
I dunno. It's the same reason all the pyramids and greek ruins are in the shape they're in. In times of scarcity, the past gets recycled to meet the needs of the present. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Joined: Mar 19, 2005 Posts: 843 Location: Bridge City
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 8:39 pm Post subject: Re: Some homes worth less than their copper pipes
smallpoxgirl wrote:
Denny wrote:
Its beyond stealing, its sacrilege.
I dunno. It's the same reason all the pyramids and greek ruins are in the shape they're in. In times of scarcity, the past gets recycled to meet the needs of the present.
stop making sense, spg _________________ "if god doesn't exist, it is necessary that we invent him" - Voltaire
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 8:41 pm Post subject: Re: Some homes worth less than their copper pipes
Oh, that has been happening in the UK for years and 200 years isn't even that old here. I have linked a story or two in metal theft threads here before, church bells and roof materials are a favourite. What is worse is sculptures disappearing, nondenominational works intended for public display. The thieves have trucks and cranes. In one famous case, a Henry Moore bronze vanished. You know what size those are. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3867 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 8:43 pm Post subject: Re: Some homes worth less than their copper pipes
Cashmere wrote:
Steel for wiring? Huh? How about 1-it will rust/rot, 2-it is not a good conductor.
I don't think that's the case for wiring, unless somebody wants to point me to a page that discusses why steel is just as good.
Steel is not as good as copper, in fact pure iron has about 17% the conductivity of copper and Stainless Steel ranges from 15% down to 3%. The point however is not is Copper a better conductor, many metals are better than Iron. However Iron is cheap, and the volume used in wiring would be far too little to be worth scavanging for, stealing a car would pay off a lot quicker, or even just steeling the wheel rims. If you are going on a pure conductivity basis we should use Silver wire for everything.
Also in the good old days when Telegraph lines were being strung across the USA in the 1800's they used steel wire with a copper jacket, tghe stuff conducts electricity like any other copper wire with the same volume of copper in it, but it is very hard to scrap at a profit because the two metals are attached to each other closely. I suppose with modern technology it would be possible, but the profit is way less than scrapping pure copper.
_________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 8:44 pm Post subject: Re: Some homes worth less than their copper pipes
smallpoxgirl wrote:
Denny wrote:
Its beyond stealing, its sacrilege.
I dunno. It's the same reason all the pyramids and greek ruins are in the shape they're in. In times of scarcity, the past gets recycled to meet the needs of the present.
But, those civilizations went into terminal decline. I'd like to think we're still civilized here in America.
But, I have my doubts at times. My last trip to Detroit looked pretty sad, its downtown streets are mostly as dark as Havana at night, like a third world city. That is a city that could use a real renovation program. If it can happen in Manhatten, it can happen everywhere.
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 8:51 pm Post subject: Re: Some homes worth less than their copper pipes
Denny wrote:
But, those civilizations went into terminal decline. I'd like to think we're still civilized here in America.
Ever seen the drawings of what the pyramids looked like before people stole all the trim stone off the outside? Now picture in your head what the statue of liberty is going to look like once people steal the skin for copper. Same deal. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 9:48 pm Post subject: Re: Some homes worth less than their copper pipes
Tanada wrote:
Also in the good old days when Telegraph lines were being strung
across the USA in the 1800's they used steel wire with a copper
jacket, tghe stuff conducts electricity like any other copper wire with
the same volume of copper in it, but it is very hard to scrap at a profit
because the two metals are attached to each other closely.
Interesting, companies could produce wire that is difficult to scrap.
I think there would be a market for that.
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 10:00 pm Post subject: Re: Some homes worth less than their copper pipes
I am sure that at present copper prices we'll see more usage of copper clad aluminum. the plated copper layer works in such a way that the majority of the electron flow is on the periphery.
I recall in the auto business, battery cables were made of this in the last runup of copper prices in the late 70's.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4329 Location: Graceland
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 10:17 pm Post subject: Re: Some homes worth less than their copper pipes
How about this:
The nickels that are being minted TODAY are worth about 6.5 cents for their metal content.
Thus, for every nickel the government mints, the cost of materials ALONE generates a 1.5 cent loss. Put another way, if you want an easy way of hedging against inflation, buy nickels.
It's currently illegal to melt pennies or nickels, but that may not always be the case.
One thing seems certain, at some point the metal in nickels will be changed to something less expensive and all the old nickels will probably disappear overnight.
The metal content of pre-1983 pennies is worth about 3.5 cents. But you have to sort pennies to get this value. With nickels, they're ALL worth more than the face value based upon the underlying metal.
It's pretty crazy.
People talk about gold and silver as "real" money; think about that next time you have a nickel, because that's "real" money too. _________________
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3867 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 10:25 pm Post subject: Re: Some homes worth less than their copper pipes
Denny wrote:
I am sure that at present copper prices we'll see more usage of copper clad aluminum. the plated copper layer works in such a way that the majority of the electron flow is on the periphery.
I recall in the auto business, battery cables were made of this in the last runup of copper prices in the late 70's.
Except this time Aluminum has appreciated almost as fast as copper so there is no cost benefit.
Here is an interesting page on copper sheathed steel wire.
Quote:
WIRES AND CABLES
254
Materials Used for Conductors
The metals which have been used most commonly for conductors are copper aluminum and iron German silver lead and various alloys are used in electrical apparatus such as heaters fuses etc but they are never used for transmitting electricity for lighting or power service because of their high resistance Of the three metals mentioned above copper is most commonly used for power transmission and interior wiring because of its low resistance and relatively small cost Iron is sometimes used outdoors for very long spans where copper would not be strong enough mechanically Iron wire has a resistance from 6 to 8.25 times that of annealed copper depending upon the quality of the material Ordinary steel rails have a resistance of 11 to 13 times that of copper Special steel rails which are used for third rails may have a resistance as low as 8 times that of copper Iron or steel wire is used extensively for telephone and telegraph circuits where high resistance is not a serious disadvantage It is never used for interior wiring although steel rails or structural shapes are sometimes used for conducting current to cranes Copper clad or bi metallic wire is composed of an iron or steel wire covered with a heavy coating of copper The resistance of the wire depends upon the relative amounts of copper and iron and is expressed by the manufacturers as the per cent conductivity compared with a copper wire of the same size Wires having respectively 30 per cent 40 per cent and 47 per cent of the conductivity of copper are standard This wire is chiefly used for long telephone and telegraph lines and to some extent for power transmission It is not used for interior wiring Aluminum is used rather extensively for long distance power transmission systems where bare conductors are employed An aluminum wire is however considerably larger in diameter than a copper wire having an equal resistance.
248
Interior Wiring and Systems for Electric Light and Power Sevice
A Manual of Practice for Electrical Workers, Contractors, Architects and Schools By Arthur Leroy Cook
_________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 4:37 am Post subject: Re: Some homes worth less than their copper pipes
steam_cannon wrote:
Tanada wrote:
Also in the good old days when Telegraph lines were being strung across the USA in the 1800's they used steel wire with a copper jacket, tghe stuff conducts electricity like any other copper wire with the same volume of copper in it, but it is very hard to scrap at a profit because the two metals are attached to each other closely.
Interesting, companies could produce wire that is difficult to scrap.
I think there would be a market for that.
The added complexity that makes anything difficult to scrap comes at an increase in manufacturing costs, which are passed on to the buyer and end user. This premium is difficult to justify in good times when prices are stable and theft for scrap is a minor background problem. But when times are hard and/or material prices shoot up, this apparent shortsightedness hands criminals most of the installed base to work with. The end user pays a price eventually, but whether it is higher or lower than preventative measures I can't say. If you introduce discounted cash flow into the analysis, it is almost certain that few people will have any incentive to pay extra unless responding to immediate problems. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
All times are GMT - 6 Hours Goto page Previous1, 2, 3Next
Page 2 of 3
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
