Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 9:01 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
patience wrote:
The troll has obviously never tried to grow anything by old methods and then by chemical methods. What he does not know about agriculture, (or feigns not knowing) would fill a lot of big hard drives. Like the charts of corn and soybean yields he posted that coincide precisely with the advent of chemical fertilizers. Take away the fertilizers and we get regression to the previous yields, or worse. Ignorance can be fixed, if the student will pay attention.
There seems to be a lot of trolls popping up here lately.
People who come here and only want to talk and not listen.
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 9:31 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
From Ticker Forum, reposted here:
Quote:
Inflation is still running like a brush fire inside China. Prices moved up 8.5% in April compared with the same month a year ago. The its a pittance compared to the rise in food costs, up 22.1% last month.
The central government also reported that exports are not growing. The slowdown in the West has finally ending the party in China.
The world's most populated nation is a microcosm, albeit a huge one, of the trouble about it hit other large economies. Food prices are being driven by high agricultural product prices while global trade is being battered by flat of falling GDP in some of the largest nations.
China actually has it better than many countries. Its government still underwrites the price of fuel. That is a luxury not found elsewhere.
The world food situation is, for the time being, hopeless. Production from countries like the US is being compromised by the need to create alternative fuels. In the third world, farmers being driven off of their land by political turmoil which has turned to civil war. At the same time, the world's malnourished population is spiking up sharply.
Inflation has become the great enemy of economic growth in China, trumping a slowdown in GDP. Prosperity among the new middle classes in the country has been pumped up by rising pay checks. Now, that income is being undercut by the cost of food staples. In the US, a similar process is taking place, but the main culprit, at least for now, is the cost of fuel.
Somewhere is the future, the lines cross. China cannot underwrite fuel costs forever. Food inflation will be joined by gas and diesel price inflation. In the US, while the huge engine of agriculture has muted increases in many items at the grocery store, demand for farm commodities overseas and ethanol production here will drag food prices up at a rate which could easily reach double digits.
There is a word for rising prices and falling GDP, but it has not been used much in the last thirty years.
Douglas A. McIntyre
There has also been a drought in Indonesia and Australia. With the crop damage that came from the cyclone in Burma, and the lowest grain stocks in history, there is a high likely hood of famine in many parts of Asia this year.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation says damage done to Burma's rice crop could affect exports this year, putting more pressure on the global rice market.
Cyclone Nargis struck five Burmese states which together account for 65 per cent of the country's rice output.
The FAO says the damage to rice, palm oil and rubber plantations means Burma will need to rely on imports of these goods in the coming months.
There are no accurate official figures on Burma's rice exports, but in April the government said it had exported nearly half-a-million tons over the past year and had enough for domestic consumption."
We know Burma's government is full crap and would let children starve to death rather than admit they have a food problem. Just another reason to get your ass away from your dependence on the global system.
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
On 321 energy I found this article about bubbles. It may be that the whole food crisis is a bubble, but I don't know. There has to be a physical shortage to get it going, and we definitely had that.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 675 Location: Illinois
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
shortonoil wrote:
dorlomin wrote:
I see the troll is still spamming the thread.
OF2 is amazing, she/he has one of the most delusional oriented minds that I have ever encountered. Even if it is being paid as a corpo-debunker to do this, its ability to twist logic and ignore blatant in your face information is startling. It is hard to imagine what kind of relationship he/she has with the people around them.
Sometimes I wonder how many with this kind of mind are locked up in some kind of institution! They do seem to have an inordinate amount of free time to surf the net.
What is amazing is how everyone jumps on OF because he has a different view. Obviously anyone who has a different view must be a paid plant and be ridiculed. Also, lets attack his personal relationships as an added bonus. That is the epitome of logic and blatant in your face information that will convince people.
wisconsin_cur wrote:
Did you do that with your wife when you would have disagreements? Is that why she left you? Sorry, but most of us understand why.
Very convincing argument you make wisconsin_cur. Another example of logic and blatant in your face information. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 4:44 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
kublikhan wrote:
shortonoil wrote:
dorlomin wrote:
I see the troll is still spamming the thread.
OF2 is amazing, she/he has one of the most delusional oriented minds that I have ever encountered. Even if it is being paid as a corpo-debunker to do this, its ability to twist logic and ignore blatant in your face information is startling. It is hard to imagine what kind of relationship he/she has with the people around them.
Sometimes I wonder how many with this kind of mind are locked up in some kind of institution! They do seem to have an inordinate amount of free time to surf the net.
What is amazing is how everyone jumps on OF because he has a different view. Obviously anyone who has a different view must be a paid plant and be ridiculed. Also, lets attack his personal relationships as an added bonus. That is the epitome of logic and blatant in your face information that will convince people.
wisconsin_cur wrote:
Did you do that with your wife when you would have disagreements? Is that why she left you? Sorry, but most of us understand why.
Very convincing argument you make wisconsin_cur. Another example of logic and blatant in your face information.
Actually I did have a point. If he uses the same logic and reasoning in disagreements in the real world than he will find himself divorced and filled with friends that either think just like him, if at all.
I don't care if he has another opinion or not but he, like everyone else in the world, needs to be able to defend it if he wants to share it publically. He loves to use many time honored strategies to say things that appear substantive but are really tangential to the subject at hand. When confronted he grabs on to one thing, while avoiding the main point.
I tried to be optimistic and took the leap of faith to actually engage OF and his inability to interact in a substantive manner was displayed. From now on I will follow the advice mentioned above and ignore his attempts to evade the subject at hand.
I do not think he is a plant. I think he is an example of talk radio bluster disguising itself as argument. _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable."
John Kenneth Galbraith
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 675 Location: Illinois
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 8:35 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Getting back to the topic at hand, I believe the primary cause of this commodity boom(and the result of the hungry poor getting priced out of the market) is the fact that real interest rates are now actually negative. Looking at just the run up in prices for 2008, oil is up 12% since January. The dollar is down about 7% vs the Euro. So the weak dollar can be attributed to part of the price increase in commodities, but not all of it. If you graph the numbers in Euros instead of dollars, commodities are still up. Investors are pulling their money out of equities, housing, etc and putting it into commodities.
Why new Highs? Negative Interest Rates
Wikipedia lists these factors as contributing to the food crisis:
Financial speculation(credit crisis, weak dollar, low interest rates, etc.)
Impact of oil price increases
Biofuel subsidies in the US
Crop shortfalls from natural disasters(droughts, floods, hurricanes, climate change, etc.)
Soil and productivity losses(erosion, urbanisation, depleted aquifers, etc.)
Impact of trade liberalization(planting cash crops vs food crops)
Declining world food stockpiles(because it is so easy to import)
Idled farmland(Ex: CRP)
World Food Crisis
I think they all are partly to blame, but the 2 biggest ones on the list are a commodity boom fueled by low interest rates and high price of oil(whose high price itself is partially to blame on a general commodity boom.) _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 8:47 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
FoolYap said:
Quote:
Quote:
From Ticker Forum, reposted here:
Quote:
China actually has it better than many countries. Its government still underwrites the price of fuel. That is a luxury not found elsewhere.
I thought Iran also did this-Am I mistaken?
Many Middle East countries do. Venezuela does as well if I'm not mistaken.
I noticed that also, but I’m not sure if any other country underwrites the cost of all fuels like China does. Does anyone know? He could have also meant any country that is not an oil exporter.
He should have been more specific on this point, but its still an interesting article.
Quote:
Somewhere is the future, the lines cross. China cannot underwrite fuel costs forever. Food inflation will be joined by gas and diesel price inflation. In the US, while the huge engine of agriculture has muted increases in many items at the grocery store, demand for farm commodities overseas and ethanol production here will drag food prices up at a rate which could easily reach double digits.
Here he seems to hit the nail on the head; fuel and food. Two intertwined and un-separable elements of our present dilemma.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1143 Location: Seattle
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 9:21 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
patience wrote:
The troll has obviously never tried to grow anything by old methods and then by chemical methods. What he does not know about agriculture, (or feigns not knowing) would fill a lot of big hard drives. Like the charts of corn and soybean yields he posted that coincide precisely with the advent of chemical fertilizers. Take away the fertilizers and we get regression to the previous yields, or worse. Ignorance can be fixed, if the student will pay attention.
That was about the most bizarre statement in this entire thread if you are attempting to argue against me. You're basically telling me that lower yields are better. Yes, you are absolutely correct: If you take away the fertilizers you will get regression to the previous yields . . . which is exactly what we don't want if we actually intend to feed the world. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1143 Location: Seattle
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 9:25 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
cube wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
Is that not "intensive?"
NO
intensive does not equal rice terraces.
intensive == doing anything that is environmentally unsustainable like what we're doing right now.
"modern" agriculture is environmentally unsustainable.
So, mass-scale re-shaping and engineering of these hillsides can be sustained for 2000 years, but plowing furrows in Iowan or Brazilian soils and adding some fertilizer can't. That is almost as bizarre as patience's claim above that lower yields are better.
2000 year old mass engineering project _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 10:29 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Quote:
So, mass-scale re-shaping and engineering of these hillsides can be sustained for 2000 years, but plowing furrows in Iowan or Brazilian soils and adding some fertilizer can't. That is almost as bizarre as patience's claim above that lower yields are better.
OF2 you KNOW that you have just reduced this discussion to stupid semantics. Stop this BS, stop the trolling and add something of substance or SHUT UP! Most are here to expand their understanding of the most threatening challenge to mankind in the last thirteen millennium. We don’t or shouldn’t have the time for your childish games, and stupid bantering!
If you can’t understand what I’m saying, you aren’t intelligent enough to be here. Go play at MathFun.com or something!
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1143 Location: Seattle
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 10:44 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
shortonoil wrote:
Quote:
So, mass-scale re-shaping and engineering of these hillsides can be sustained for 2000 years, but plowing furrows in Iowan or Brazilian soils and adding some fertilizer can't. That is almost as bizarre as patience's claim above that lower yields are better.
OF2 you KNOW that you have just reduced this discussion to stupid semantics. Stop this BS, stop the trolling and add something of substance or SHUT UP! Most are here to expand their understanding of the most threatening challenge to mankind in the last thirteen millennium. We don’t or shouldn’t have the time for your childish games, and stupid bantering!
If you can’t understand what I’m saying, you aren’t intelligent enough to be here. Go play at MathFun.com or something!
What's wrong, have I burst your Malthusian bubble?
Oh so sorry. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Mar 04, 2007 Posts: 504 Location: Hong Kong
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 2:46 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
OilFinder2 wrote:
So, mass-scale re-shaping and engineering of these hillsides can be sustained for 2000 years, but plowing furrows in Iowan or Brazilian soils and adding some fertilizer can't. That is almost as bizarre as patience's claim above that lower yields are better.
Yes, these terraces can be sustained for thousands more years. They were built by human labor without any fossil fuel inputs, so they can be maintained as long as there are humans willing to do the work.
Fertilizer cannot be added to soil in Brazil, Iowa or any other place indefinitely because it is a fossil fuel derivative. When the fossil fuels run out, so does the fertilizer. You can make fertilizer from atmospheric nitrogen, but it is extremely energy intensive, and energy is getting harder and harder to come by thanks to fossil fuel depletion.
To get to the root of the problem, you need to understand linear vs. cyclical systems. Fertilizers are part of a linear agricultural system. Mining companies extract fossil fuels, industry transforms a part of the fossil fuels into fertilizers, transport companies bring the fertilizers to the farms, the farmers put the fertilizers on the fields, crops grow, farmers harvest the crops, people eat the crops. There are a few more steps in the process in same cases, but you get the idea. There's a definite beginning and a definite end to the process. Fossil fuel extraction is the beginning, and a tasty meal is the end.
If any of the steps in the process - extraction, transport, production, etc. - are interrupted, the entire system collapses. That could happen for a number of reasons such as fuel shortages, war, social instability or natural disasters. Furthermore, the process is dependent on a fragile supply chain that extends thousands of miles around the globe and is susceptible to disruption at any geographic point that the supply chain runs through.
A cyclical system, on the other hand, has no beginning or end. For simplicity's sake, I'll use traditional Chinese night soil agriculture as an example. The farmer harvests the food, the farmer eats the food, the farmer poops the food, the farmer puts the poop back on the fields, the food grows back. The whole process forms a nice cycle that can go on for thousands of years, if not more, without any of the inputs common to the linear system.
However, there are outside inputs to any local cyclical system that make it part and parcel of the entire biosphere. For example, winds blowing over the Earth carry dust particles into the atmosphere; those particles, which contain vital nutrients, are then deposited on soil thousands of miles away, thus enriching that soil. Water that evaporates from oceans thousands of miles away is carried by the winds and deposited on the soil, allowing the crops to grow.
Those are just a few examples of a local cyclical systems' relation to the biosphere and how they will be affected by global warming. Global warming will alter those wind patterns and lay waste to cyclical agriculture systems that have served humanity for thousands of years. _________________ "We shall live in interesting times, and we shall die in them too." - Heineken
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