I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4377 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 2:21 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Ludi wrote:
Ferretlover wrote:
``Some countries have to take unilateral measures now because there is not enough food on the world market. It's going to intensify the crisis.'' ...
How about some multilateral family planning measures?
With the celebration of the anniversary of the creation of israel, NPR interviewed an old Palestinian refugee. They said she had something 15 or so kids. If that is what passes for family planning in the middle east, they are screwed many times over.
Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 6:18 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
the problem, as I would foresee it will primarily be in the food importing countries, just as oil depletion will be felt first and hardest in oil importing countries.
As we have seen this year with nations limiting rice exports, what will be next? Wheat perhaps? This does not mean that there will not be some nations continuing to export food stuffs, I would anticipate Austraila and the United States will have grain to sell for a long while into the future. But can the biggest importers continue to afford all that they need to keep their people from starvation? Can the poorest importers?
The people of the earth are not evenly distributed.
and it does not overlap with the grain producing parts of the world
wheat:
rice importers and share: (note data thru 200)
And while on the subject of rice (a staple to billions) even if production has increased over time, how is it keeping up with consumption?:
And if there is not a problem, why are prices going up?
Perhaps China is eating more rice, so if consumption is going up to not only feed the additional people we add to the globe everyday, but because certain populations are getting richer, there would not be a linear connection between population growth and harvest growth. The poorest will still get squeezed out even if there is more grain per person harvested on a world wide basis.
This is evident in the increase in meat consumption since 1968
So yes, the green revolution "worked" in that it produced more food. But is there really going to be a second act? You have never addressed the issue of soil or water depletion or the increasing price of fertilizer. For all of these things, you trust in your faith in human ingenuity. I think it is a false god, unable to save. Time will judge between us. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
And: The higher the standard of living usually the lesser the rate of births (see e.g. Europe). So more and better education (less tanks and jet fighters but more books and schools) will lead to an adequate number of people.
Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 6:29 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
yesplease wrote:
wisconsin_cur wrote:
The global population grew by 300k today. And it will again tomorrow and the day after that.
Not quite. ~350k births and ~150k deaths with a net of ~200k people per day.
wisconsin_cur wrote:
You can find all of the minor mistakes you want, you still refuse to deal with the important points. Faith in human ingenuity is not an argument it is a faith. It is like saying that Jesus will not let white people die of hunger; a short-sighted, unhelpful, ignorant statement of faith that is divorced even from the best thinking within a tradition (humanism in the first place, Christianity in the second).
I don't think OF, or anyone who si serious about this, has that kind of outlook, just that according to projections regarding population growth it won't be as large of a problem as most assume. For instance, in another thread, a poster put forth how insane 6% growth yoy in population would be, but we haven't seen that for who knows how long, and are at a smidgen over 1% per year and appear to be declining in the long term.
Yes we will have problems in the future, but it looks like, as usual, getting food to people and stabilizing local regions are key to stabilizing population growth and dealing these sorts of things. Globally, we produce more than enough food to feed a substantially larger population, it's just that we waste enough to limit that ability via livestock/fuel, and in the face of an unstable life, surprisingly enough (not really) in the wake of colonial rule, population growth in those areas will be a problem until things stabilize.
OF2 has said in the past that he has faith in human ingenuity (I don't have time right now to search it out... perhaps this afternoon). It would take ingenuity to keep up with the population growth that we do have, given that there is already little slack in the system. I think we are out of tricks and the bill for the tricks that we have used in the past are about to be turned over to a collections agency.
Just because a stock has gone up 200% in the past 3 years does not mean that it is a good time to buy that stock. Because the production of staples has gone up the last 35 years does not mean it is a good time to gamble on their continuing to increase. OF2 seems reticent to deal with the data of where we are today and the prospects for the future. He extrapolates the past into the future. I would not do that with my money, I will not do it with my future. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
And: The higher the standard of living usually the lesser the rate of births (see e.g. Europe). So more and better education (less tanks and jet fighters but more books and schools) will lead to an adequate number of people.
Jupidu,
Equating that regions with a high birthrate moving through the demographic transition to a higher standard of living and a lower birth rate will lead to "an adequate number of people" is nonsense. Current global consumption is unsustainable. Show me the facts and links that support your claim.
Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 11:16 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
mos6507 wrote:
Ludi wrote:
Ferretlover wrote:
``Some countries have to take unilateral measures now because there is not enough food on the world market. It's going to intensify the crisis.'' ...
How about some multilateral family planning measures?
With the celebration of the anniversary of the creation of israel, NPR interviewed an old Palestinian refugee. They said she had something 15 or so kids. If that is what passes for family planning in the middle east, they are screwed many times over.
It's common for people who have lost the battle for their homelands to engage in a war of the cradle. The way to address this issue is to try to eliminate the underlying insecurity, that theft of land has created. Redress past wrongs, without undermining Israeli security.
Nobel prize winner Rigoberta Menchu, an indigenous Guatemalan, divulges details about this in the book, I Rigoberta.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2230 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 12:01 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
In case you all missed this article, the Saudis are going to quit growing wheat. They will decrease production about 12% per year and be done by 2016. Apparently, its too expensive trying to grow wheat without any fresh water.
Quote:
Water fears lead Saudis to end grain output
By Andrew England in Cairo and Javier Blas in London
Published: February 27 2008 02:00 | Last updated: February 27 2008 02:00
Saudi Arabia plans to halt wheat production by 2016 because of concerns about the desert kingdom's scarce water resources, according to a US government agency.
The Saudi Arabian government has not publicly given details of the move, which comes as global cereal prices surge, driven by strong demand and lagging supply. Top-quality wheat prices for baking bread hit a high this week of $25 a bushel and have more than doubled since January.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Inflation gives Saudis food for thought - Jan-18Saudi inflation hits new high - Jan-17Saudis urged to revalue riyal - Jan-13Saudis search for inflation scapegoat - Jan-10Saudis seek help to grow family businesses - Dec-04Saudis hold 200 suspected militants - Nov-29Saudi Arabia will begin reducing production annually by 12.5 per cent from next year and will use imports to bridge the domestic consumption gap, the US Department of Agriculture - which collects information on global supply and demand for agricultural commodities - said in a report about the Saudi plan.
It estimates that Saudi Arabia's wheat imports will reach 3.4m tons by 2016, which could place the Gulf state in the top 15 largest importers of the cereal. The country at present imports a negligible amount of wheat, while producing about 2.5m tons annually.
The forecasted increase in demand from Saudi Arabia, in addition to already high consumption in the region - Egypt is the world's second largest wheat importer - would tighten global wheat supplies even further, analysts said.
The US report said that "the main reason for change in the local wheat production policy was concern over the depletion of fossil water since the crop is grown on 100 per cent central pivot irrigation".
The decision would represent a significant shift in policy for the Saudi administration, which launched an agricultural development programme in the 1970s, including the establishment of irrigation networks, to become self-sufficient for some food supplies.
From producing about 3,000 tons of wheat in 1970, Saudi Arabia became a net exporter and by 1991 production had reached 3.8m tons, according to government -figures.
However, water resource issues have previously led to reduced production of wheat and other grains. Demand for water is increasing rapidly in Saudi Arabia as the population has swelled from 7m in 1974 to about 24m, and the economy expanded during the oil boom, with the government seeking to boost industry.
The country has no permanent rivers or lakes and very little rainfall, and the government has relied on dams to trap seasonal floods, tens of thousands of deep wells and 27 desalination plants.
"Water will always be a critical issue in the kingdom, a country that relies on desalinated water for drinking and other uses will always be under pressure," said Said Alshaikh, chief economist at National Commercial Bank.
"It is so expensive to produce water in Saudi Arabia."
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13064 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 12:20 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
seahorse wrote:
In case you all missed this article, the Saudis are going to quit growing wheat. They will decrease production about 12% per year and be done by 2016. Apparently, its too expensive trying to grow wheat without any fresh water.
That seems reasonable. There are probably some methods they can use to grow food in a sustainable manner, but obviously, growing food in the desert is very difficult. There are many edible plants which grow in the desert, but they may not be what people are used to eating these days, and they are often unsuitable for widescale monocropping. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
And: The higher the standard of living usually the lesser the rate of births (see e.g. Europe). So more and better education (less tanks and jet fighters but more books and schools) will lead to an adequate number of people.
I don't know about the greater middle east, but the Palestinian territories are #13 on the list of highest population density. Don't expect a lot of Cuba-style backyard gardening there. They can't even keep the sewage situation under control. They've "overshot" themselves into oblivion.
Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 3:48 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Ludi wrote:
seahorse wrote:
In case you all missed this article, the Saudis are going to quit growing wheat. They will decrease production about 12% per year and be done by 2016. Apparently, its too expensive trying to grow wheat without any fresh water.
That seems reasonable. There are probably some methods they can use to grow food in a sustainable manner, but obviously, growing food in the desert is very difficult. There are many edible plants which grow in the desert, but they may not be what people are used to eating these days, and they are often unsuitable for widescale monocropping.
Why bother growing anything when they have warehouses full of USA and other currencies to buy the food, and use their own precious water for a better and more comfortable lifestyle? Indoor ski runs, pools, an oasis in every villa?
The movement of oil prices has permanently moved those states from many concerns of "sustainable" lifestyle that they may have had remaining. Having enough to eat is now a problem for other countries to deal with, including the USA, whose citizens are now finding the foreigners high bidding the goodies from their local farms. Dig deep, fellow citizens, for the object lesson of what the "free market" means from a position of other than the top rung.
LOS BANOS, Philippines — The brown plant hopper, an insect no bigger than a gnat, is multiplying by the billions and chewing through rice paddies in East Asia, threatening the diets of many poor people.
Because subsidized rice is limited, people must take numbers when they line up to buy it in Los Banos in the Philippines.
Researchers at the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines, the world’s main repository of information about rice, are trying to deal with problems like the rice hopper, which destroys plants, by developing stronger varieties of rice.
The damage to rice crops, occurring at a time of scarcity and high prices, could have been prevented. Researchers at the International Rice Research Institute here say that they know how to create rice varieties resistant to the insects but that budget cuts have prevented them from doing so.
This is a stark example of the many problems that are coming to light in the world’s agricultural system. Experts say that during the food surpluses of recent decades, governments and development agencies lost focus on the importance of helping poor countries improve their agriculture.
The budgets of institutions that delivered the world from famine in the 1970s, including the rice institute, have stagnated or fallen, even as the problems they were trying to solve became harder.
The problems are getting harder? Does that mean that we will not reproduce the victories of the past?
Quote:
Agricultural experts have complained about the flagging efforts for years and warned of the risks.
“Nobody was listening,” said Thomas Lumpkin, director general of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center in Mexico.
Now, a reckoning is at hand. Growth of the global food supply has slowed even as the population has continued to increase, and as economic growth is giving millions of poor people the money to buy more food.
With demand beginning to outstrip supply, prices have soared, and food riots have erupted that have undermined the stability of foreign governments. World leaders are scrambling to respond. On May 1, President Bush asked Congress for an extra $770 million to pay for food aid and to help farmers improve their productivity.
But cuts in agricultural research continue. The United States is in the midst of slashing, by as much as 75 percent, its $59.5 million annual support for a global research network that focuses on improving crops vital to agriculture in poor countries.
Quote:
“Agriculture has been so productive and done so well, people have kind of lost sight of how fragile it really is,” said Jan E. Leach, a plant pathologist at Colorado State University who works with rice. “It’s as if we have lost track of the fact that food is linked to agriculture, which is linked to human survival.”
Ouch... a scientist says things are fragile. I wonder if that means more about the possible future than graphs of past performance? One of those things that makes you say, "hmmmmm..."
But lets go back to the bugs,
Quote:
But with rice plants growing more of the year, the hoppers — which live only on rice plants — had longer to multiply, and became a bigger concern.
The institute responded by testing thousands of varieties of wild rice for natural resistance. Researchers found four types of resistance and bred them into commercial varieties by 1980.
But brown plant hoppers adapted swiftly, and the resistant strains started losing their effectiveness in the 1990s. An important insecticide lost its punch, too, as the hopper developed the ability to withstand up to 100 times the dose that used to kill it.
you see, in the natural world there is no "done." Just because you won a series of battles over 40 years does not mean you have won a war. Nature can come back and kick your postierior with little or no notice. Any one who has ever tended a garden knows that.
Quote:
A potential solution is at hand for the plant hopper problem. No fewer than 14 new types of genetic resistance have been discovered. But with the budget cuts, the institute has mounted no effort to breed these traits into widely used rice varieties.
Doing so now would take four to seven years, if money could be found. In the meantime, the hoppers have become a growing threat. China, the world’s biggest rice producer, announced on May 7 that it was struggling to control the rapid spread of the insects there. A plant hopper outbreak can destroy 20 percent of a harvest; China is trying to hold losses to 5 percent in affected fields.
“We must stay ahead of rapidly evolving pests — and increasingly, a changing climate — to assure global food security,” said Mr. Zeigler, the rice institute’s director. “Cutting back on agricultural research today is pure folly.”
_________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 4:59 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
cube wrote:
yesplease wrote:
...
it's just that we waste enough to limit that ability via livestock/fuel, and in the face of an unstable life,....
That will not change. Joe Sixpack is not going to give up on eating grain fed cattle meat and the government is not going to get smart and put a stop to corn ethanol, at least not now.
It's already changing. Higher grain prices are squeezing some livestock producers out of the business, and as far as Ethanol from corn goes, it's fairly obvious that it's a kickback to the mid-western states in exchange for votes, and will only continue at most as long as we continue using grossly inefficient vehicles (not for long according to peak/prices).
cube wrote:
The "reason" will be b/c of decreased fertility rates due to malnutrition in the 3rd world. That's how die-off works.
Decreased fertility does not always mean people are dying off, as is the case in the developed world. Those with more affluence are less likely to have children. _________________
Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 5:10 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
wisconsin_cur wrote:
OF2 has said in the past that he has faith in human ingenuity (I don't have time right now to search it out... perhaps this afternoon).
Context plays a large part, so that would definitely be helpful.
wisconsin_cur wrote:
It would take ingenuity to keep up with the population growth that we do have, given that there is already little slack in the system. I think we are out of tricks and the bill for the tricks that we have used in the past are about to be turned over to a collections agency.
Not really. Most of the problems we have with our declining population growth rate are due to inefficient use and lack of distribution, not how much food we can produce.
wisconsin_cur wrote:
Just because a stock has gone up 200% in the past 3 years does not mean that it is a good time to buy that stock. Because the production of staples has gone up the last 35 years does not mean it is a good time to gamble on their continuing to increase. OF2 seems reticent to deal with the data of where we are today and the prospects for the future. He extrapolates the past into the future. I would not do that with my money, I will not do it with my future.
I don't think stating we can feed 9-10 billion people is gambling on further increases in food production considering how much we waste now, it's simply stating what we can do. If we instead choose to use enough food for Ethanol and grow enough meat to the point where we only feed a billion, then that's what will happen, but that doesn't mean we can't feed far more with different/more efficient uses of the food we have available to us. _________________
Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 6:48 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
wisconsin_cur said:
Quote:
Ouch, how are we suppose to keep up the pace of increased yields from the past?
By looking at your graphs, it appears that food production has increased by 2.7% per year for the last 43 years. That in itself is rather impressive and doesn’t convey the impression that production is the problem. Foreign aid was also at a high as recently as ‘06 (last data point on the graph). Although less of that money was spent on research, the graph does not indicate if that is the result of the donors actions or of the receiver of the funds.
This data does not coincide with the article! Unless productivity increases have taken a drastic decline in the last two years, for which we don’t have the data, I would guess that the problem is not a lack of production improvement. It would more likely be a problem of too many mouths to feed.
Science is not a branch of magic, it is limited to physical constraints. If the populous of countries like the Philippines, a catholic nation that doesn’t support birth control, choice to out breed the food supply, after an amazing run of production gains, there is probably little that the scientific community can do to alleviate the problem.
This data is not as convincing for the increase of agricultural research money, as it is for the increase of money for population control programs!
As Hegel, the German philosopher noted, thinkers understand a concept just as it ceases to be relevant.
Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 7:01 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
When we are talking about grain, which is not produced in a factory but on a farm, and is subject to many more variables than a factory product, there will be limits to efficiency. Also, there are pressures on producing nations to keep food off of the market to keep their own prices low for their own populace and their own political power. Food is not a widget or a LandCruiser it is the source of life and subject to political limitations of markets both for political power and national security. A well stocked pantry in every home or the reliable presence of cheap food is worth its weight in M1-A1 Abrams tanks.
So there will always be a disproportionate amount of food in some places (those able to produce it or buy it) than others (those that can do neither). There is not a free market of M1-A1's and there will not be one of food. Efficiency will be limited by factors unrelated to nutritional minimal requirements or even the market.
Can we do better in efficiency than we are now? I doubt it. As we saw with the recent rice crisis, nations will be quick to shut down or limit exports, except those nations with the most to export. Add the possibility (likelihood?) of the breaking down of globalisation as scarcity is re-evaluated as a political and economic factor in all natural resources and we have the possibility that agricultural powers will begin to play the "grain card."
Add to this the fact that we are no longer funding the "Green Revolution" like we use to (without replacing it with something else) and a growing world population (growing primarily in those nations which are food importers) and we have a recipe for famines. And yes, others will starve while I still supplement my goats and rabbits and chickens with corn and I buy bio-diesel for the car.
It won't be fair, it will not be efficient, there will be grain rotting in some cities while the poor starve in another. It is not nice. It is life in the real world. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
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