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Peakoil.com :: View topic - The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
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The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
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OilFinder2
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 8:58 pm    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

wisconsin_cur wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
The wheat belt of southeastern Australia has been getting some really good rains for the past day or so, plus the forecast for the next several days calls for more. Should be a big help for the wheat crop there.


I wonder why you didn't quote the whole story from Bloomberg?

Quote:
``Significant production risks remain for Australia's wheat production this season,'' Rabobank's Luke Chandler said in the report. ``Early stage crop development has also been below average in a number of regions due to a lack of follow-up rainfall, which like last season, threatens the development of Australia's wheat crop over coming months.'


Link

Well, I just posted a link to some of that follow-up rainfall, didn't I.

wisconsin_cur wrote:
1. Even a good couple of years does not change the trend (something you have never acknowledged).

2. This is how you get the reputation of a cherry-picker.

You and others have posted countless articles in this thread on isolated, localized food problems (for starters, read the very first article in the thread), then have the audacity to proclaim it is a "spreading food crisis." If that isn't cherry-picking, then nothing is.
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wisconsin_cur
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:07 pm    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

OilFinder2 wrote:

You and others have posted countless articles in this thread on isolated, localized food problems (for starters, read the very first article in the thread), then have the audacity to proclaim it is a "spreading food crisis." If that isn't cherry-picking, then nothing is.


It is a question of trend doesn't it? If the trend turns and there are more and more places experiencing surplus food than those in need, then the trend will be reversed, and we will start a Spreading Food Abundance Thread.

Until then, however, the trend seems to be in the direction of need and all the counting of wheat berries before they are harvested will not change that.
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eastbay
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:12 pm    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

wisconsin_cur wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:

You and others have posted countless articles in this thread on isolated, localized food problems (for starters, read the very first article in the thread), then have the audacity to proclaim it is a "spreading food crisis." If that isn't cherry-picking, then nothing is.


It is a question of trend doesn't it? If the trend turns and there are more and more places experiencing surplus food than those in need, then the trend will be reversed, and we will start a Spreading Food Abundance Thread.

Until then, however, the trend seems to be in the direction of need and all the counting of wheat berries before they are harvested will not change that.



I suppose anyone so moved could start a Bountiful Harvests thread and wonderful tales of plenty and optimism about feeding the worlds population could be posted and discussed there.
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yesplease
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:23 pm    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

wisconsin_cur wrote:
It is a question of trend doesn't it? If the trend turns and there are more and more places experiencing surplus food than those in need, then the trend will be reversed, and we will start a Spreading Food Abundance Thread.
A trend includes most of or ideally all the data, so unless we've posted info on food in every single region on the face of the Earth, what's here isn't a trend. As trends go, world food production per capita has been increasing.
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OilFinder2
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:24 pm    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

wisconsin_cur wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:

You and others have posted countless articles in this thread on isolated, localized food problems (for starters, read the very first article in the thread), then have the audacity to proclaim it is a "spreading food crisis." If that isn't cherry-picking, then nothing is.


It is a question of trend doesn't it? If the trend turns and there are more and more places experiencing surplus food than those in need, then the trend will be reversed, and we will start a Spreading Food Abundance Thread.

Until then, however, the trend seems to be in the direction of need and all the counting of wheat berries before they are harvested will not change that.

Except that there is no "trend" in the direction of need. World per-capita agricultural production has actually gone up, not down.


Source = FAO
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wisconsin_cur
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 6:06 am    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Does "Agricultural Production" include those Ag products not going into people's mouths?

Quote:
Agricultural production includes the value of all crop and livestock products originating within a country for the base period of 1994– 1996. The index value portrays the disposable output (after deductions for livestock feed and seed for planting) of a country’s agriculture in comparison with the base period 1989– 1991. Thus, the production values show not only the relative ability of countries to produce food but also show whether or not that ability has increased or decreased over an 8- year period.


Biofuels would seem to be a use of "disposable output."

Agricultural Production Per Capita

Again, the world is more complicated than you give it credit for being.
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wisconsin_cur
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 6:58 am    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

yesplease wrote:
wisconsin_cur wrote:
It is a question of trend doesn't it? If the trend turns and there are more and more places experiencing surplus food than those in need, then the trend will be reversed, and we will start a Spreading Food Abundance Thread.
A trend includes most of or ideally all the data, so unless we've posted info on food in every single region on the face of the Earth, what's here isn't a trend. As trends go, world food production per capita has been increasing.


I would add a follow up question.

Why, then, increased prices and decreasing stocks?

I do not think I have ever contended that the problem is only one of decreased harvests, it is also a matter of diverting food to fuel. It is also a problem of population growth. It is also a problem of national and international policies. There are probably a few other issues that I am not thinking of right now which also add to the crisis.

If I have ever said it was a problem just of decreased harvests then I was wrong. So is it good that calories per capita is going up? Sure, I guess, but it does not discount the problems. It does not even address the core arguments that I have made.

It is the over-simplification of my position and then selecting small bits of data, that over turn the over-simplification which is treated as if it is the sum total of the problem.
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joelcolorado
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:25 am    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

There would be plenty of food if the americans would quit eating 4 times as much as they need. I went to all inclusive resort and the americans were embarrassing. They wasted enough food to feed a family every day. Good grief. OH>..by the way..i am an american but learned to eat off of an 8" plate and not the buffet plates etc.

What is with that. Why cant ppl see what that is doing to themselves. 100 extra calories a day is an extra 10 pounds a year. 100 cals is a small handful of most things. A snickers candy bar is 700 cals. Pepsi in big cup 600 cals, so you see the problem. People get enough calories from snacks every day to gain like hogs.
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yesplease
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:47 am    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

wisconsin_cur wrote:
I would add a follow up question.

Why, then, increased prices and decreasing stocks?

I do not think I have ever contended that the problem is only one of decreased harvests, it is also a matter of diverting food to fuel. It is also a problem of population growth. It is also a problem of national and international policies. There are probably a few other issues that I am not thinking of right now which also add to the crisis.
Surpluses were likely due to subsidization in the past. In any event I think you answered your own question. Seems typical of money. Pump and dump IMO.
wisconsin_cur wrote:
If I have ever said it was a problem just of decreased harvests then I was wrong. So is it good that calories per capita is going up? Sure, I guess, but it does not discount the problems. It does not even address the core arguments that I have made.

It is the over-simplification of my position and then selecting small bits of data, that over turn the over-simplification which is treated as if it is the sum total of the problem.
I'm not talking about your position, whatever it may be, outside of your last post. All I'm saying is that as trends go, per capita food production has been consistently rising. Anything to the contrary is alarmist to say the least.
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frankthetank
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 12:34 pm    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Oilfinder/Others-

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/thirty_day.html

Heres a good website showing rainfall averages/anomalies the last 30 days... Its hard to find a lot of data for some areas of the world.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 12:36 pm    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

joelcolorado wrote:
There would be plenty of food if the americans would quit eating 4 times as much as they need. I went to all inclusive resort and the americans were embarrassing. They wasted enough food to feed a family every day. Good grief. OH>..by the way..i am an american but learned to eat off of an 8" plate and not the buffet plates etc.

What is with that. Why cant ppl see what that is doing to themselves. 100 extra calories a day is an extra 10 pounds a year. 100 cals is a small handful of most things. A snickers candy bar is 700 cals. Pepsi in big cup 600 cals, so you see the problem. People get enough calories from snacks every day to gain like hogs.


This assumes I should do without for the benefit of another. Why? I'll eat, or not eat, as much as I want (or can afford to).

Now I do out of general principle (eat normally and responsibly) but the point remains.
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joelcolorado
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:02 pm    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Oh i get it. My wife is a doctor and she gets it. All the whales coming in knees hurt, back hurts, diabetic, heart disease, kidney failure, lungs bad, cant move, etc. So yah...eat it ALL for gods sake and keep her in business.

THere is a thot that we are all our brothers keeper and YES, if we all thot that there woudl be enough to go around. So dont complain bout the price of gas as other ppl. are doing what you are doing, using as much as ty want IF they can pay for it.
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frankthetank
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 4:14 pm    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Joel-

Then if a doctor tells them that they have to exercise, stop eating certain things they just go see a different doctor. I've known people who have done this. People just don't want to hear it, they'd rather keep doing what they've been doing.

Could you imagine what would happen to the health of this country if people cut out fast food and exercised an hour per day?
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joelcolorado
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 4:34 pm    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

YES, the economy would be saved. Cuz all that money spent on healthcare would go to Walmart. hah.

I know, they ask for a pill to heal their knee. all the while 400 lbs of ugly fat is pushing that old knee to death. Or for something else.

I hate to excercise but decided I could do it while watching TV. Got a bike to ride indoors and time goes so fast while watching a show. An hour slides past. If the television was hooked up to the pedals, we woudl be all bone thin and in good shape. hah.

Just a sad state of affairs. NOW for the KILLER COMMENT> I truly think someone needs to LIMIT how much food you get every day.
Can you IMAGINE the screams? OMG, how dare you make me be healthy. But soon insurance will be charging more just like life insurance does now. And rightfully so. Why do I pay more for mine so ppl can eat like pigs and use up MY insurance pool money. Let em pay if they are a risk.
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SD_Scott
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 5:01 pm    Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Well, I've made my monthly trek across Illinois and The corn is certainly up. The old saying was knee high by the forth of July. It's well past that. Man this stuff grows fast!

There's hope.
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