Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 9:34 am Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
Wait til you read this little gem of info:
Quote:
The tonnage of rice available for importing this year is falling drastically. The USDA estimated in March that rice for export was trending downward from the level of 30.85 mmt traded in 2006/7, down to perhaps 29.39 mmt to be traded this year. But this fantasy does not reflect the recent announcements by major rice exporting countries that are now limiting or banning exports. Of the 29 million metric tons of rice for trade or aid, only seven nations account for 27 mmt, and four of them have restricted exports, possibly adding up to a "loss to the markets" of 11.2 mmt. They are (their "normal" annual export tonnage is noted): Vietnam (5 mmt); India (3.5 mmt); China (1.3 mmt); Egypt (1.3 mmt). Additionally, Pakistan, which exported some 3 mmt in recent years, has none for export, and is beset by grain going to Afghanistan. Thailand, the world's leading grain exporter, is also restricting exports. Thus, 24.2 mmt, or over three-quarters of all the rice traded on the world markets, may not be there in coming months. (mgm)
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 12:30 pm Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
Global rice market practically vanishes in a snap of a moment, with nobody selling and importers on brink of famine. Makes you wonder how fast and easy that could happen also in other "strategic" commodities...
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 2:44 pm Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
USDA on the recent jump in rice:
Quote:
International: Thai quotes jumped $356, or more than 70 percent, from last month to $855 FOB, as exportable supplies remain tight and worldwide concerns over food security drive up export prices. Vietnam is not quoting prices due to an export ban, which leaves Thailand and the United States as virtually the only game in town.
USDA commentary, rice
Rioting started today in Bangladesh (Sat April 12)
Bangladesh workers riot over soaring food prices
Quote:
"They became unruly demanding higher wages, saying their current wages don't even meet basic food needs," police sub-inspector Shafiqul Islam said.
The price of rice is a key issue in impoverished Bangladesh, where households are estimated to spend nearly 70 percent of their income on food.
"The 25 dollars basic minimum salary was fixed in 2006. But since then prices of rice and other food items have doubled or tripled," said Nazma Akhter, president of the United Garments Workers Union.
"With our poor salary, it is now impossible to buy three meals a day. Some of us are even going hungry some days," said Jamal Uddin, a sweater machine operator, who earns 30 dollars a month.
The data on who is most likely to suffer from an imminent food crisis points to Bangladesh, which has the unfortunate combination of dependence on large quantities of grain imports and poverty. _________________ "I eat the pretzel, it get stuck in the throat and I pass out..." - George W Bush
March 7, 2007 Remarks by the President to Political Appointees
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:23 pm Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
Eventually the prices will get high enough, and we will get demand destruction. It ain't gonna be pretty. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:25 pm Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
Does anybody know which nations, other than Bangladesh, are so dependent upon imported rice from these nations for their diet? _________________ Riches are not from abundance of worldly goods, but from a contented mind.
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2660 Location: The Entropisphere
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:31 pm Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
The data is a little old (1990), but until we find something more current/specific. _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:40 pm Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
Moral to the story, if you want rice, you better hope you've got oil to trade. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:44 pm Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
Quote:
The data is a little old (1990), but until we find something more current/specific.
I also meant to ask to incorporate their ability to pay as well. KSA, no matter how dependent on foreign food (they gotta be at the top), will always be able to pay, at least for a few more decades. Iran is fairly wealthy as well, so they should be good. Iraq is solving their food problem currently, so we can ignore them.
Indonesia could be fine if they would stop their ecodevastation program and went back to more simple living. Same with Philippines.
I think that the most rice-dependent nations are also fairly wealthy, Bangladesh being the exception, so they'll probably just swallow up more food imports such as wheat, sorghum, corn, etc. Who would that leave out? There has to be losses somewhere - will it just naturally fall on the poorest nations (sub-Saharan African)? _________________ Riches are not from abundance of worldly goods, but from a contented mind.
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2660 Location: The Entropisphere
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:50 pm Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
And what nations have long term relationships with other nations that will help them out (ie the Phillipines and the USA)? So, looking at the globe we also have to look at those nations with few friends.
Also, the problem with oil is that it doesn't take too much for it to stop to flow, (ie Nigeria). If the price gets too high then there can still be social unrest that keeps the oil from being developed (no imports) or the grain from being distributed (imports but not getting to the people).
Time will tell... _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1162 Location: Central NC
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:56 pm Post subject: Re: Food Riots Break Out Across the Globe
Heard an interview this a.m. on NPR with the head of World Hunger or some such of the U.N. She listed three causes for the run-up in food prices: hi energy costs, global warming disruptions and turning food into fuel. She never mentioned overpopulation, loss of arable land or water scarcity.
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