I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
As trade in one commodity was restricted in an attempt to keep prices down at home (rice in many countries) the "contaigen" seems to be spreading to a related commodity (wheat) since many of those who would otherwise be buying rice are now substituting wheat, creating a cascading problem.
Who will be next among the large exporters to limit exports?
This "crisis" although trajic at the moment is most likely not a crisis at all. This will need a couple years to unfold and to let the market adjust. I have friends in the farming industry and they are turning on old fields, planting new and different crops etc...
And then you have the reality that 50% of our food is wasted and thrown away in this country.
Last edited by clueless on Thu Apr 17, 2008 1:03 pm; edited 2 times in total
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3964 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 1:48 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
clueless I have to think you are right, there is just so much land in my area that could be farmed but hasn't been over the years because the prices just didn't make it worth it.
Now, a field of soybeans is like field of green gold.
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 2:02 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
Won't export bans in significant exporters cause a problem for their agricultural industry? Crops rotting, farms laid up and experienced people leaving the business? I hope there are legitimate domestic supply concerns, because rushing into such a policy could be a spectacular own goal. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 3:04 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
Twilight wrote:
Won't export bans in significant exporters cause a problem for their agricultural industry? Crops rotting, farms laid up and experienced people leaving the business? I hope there are legitimate domestic supply concerns, because rushing into such a policy could be a spectacular own goal.
Well, a big joker here is "enforcement". It's one thing for a government to declare an export ban, it's quite a different thing to actually impose it. Several government declarations could very well be pure interior politics, to avoid panics and give a general good feeling of "our government care for us" and such. It's really impossible to tell how much of the "export bans" are for real, and which bribes it takes to avoid them.
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 3:10 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
A very good point. Let's hope no-one with the power to enforce their ban actually tries. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:41 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
MrBean wrote:
Twilight wrote:
A very good point. Let's hope no-one with the power to enforce their ban actually tries.
Why? The sooner we start to eat only locally grown food, the better. Global food market is absolute lunacy.
Because there will be a few more Zimbabwes where once there were countries that were self-sufficient in food. It could be difficult to implement an export ban that does not then produce effects far beyond its planned extent. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4845 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:44 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
My family plants over an acre of corn just for the deer, although i guess this year they are switching to beans because fertilizer is so high
There isn't too much good land that isn't farmed around here. I do plenty of driving in the country and if it isn't corn, its soybeans or some other crop. _________________ Clothing should be optional.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13064 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:48 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
Twilight wrote:
Because there will be a few more Zimbabwes where once there were countries that were self-sufficient in food. It could be difficult to implement an export ban that does not then produce effects far beyond its planned extent.
It will take years to return to locally grown food, espcially in countries such as the uS where so small a percentage of the population grow food. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 9:07 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
Ludi,
That's for sure, as most in the US can't cook, let alone grow food. It is starting to catch on here in the backwoods, however. Lotsa gardens this year. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 2:03 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
Quote:
DENILIQUIN, Australia — Lindsay Renwick, the mayor of this dusty southern Australian town, remembers the constant whir of the rice mill. “It was our little heartbeat out there, tickety-tick-tickety,” he said, imitating the giant fans that dried the rice, “and now it has stopped.”
The Deniliquin mill, the largest rice mill in the Southern Hemisphere, once processed enough grain to meet the needs of 20 million people around the world. But six long years of drought have taken a toll, reducing Australia’s rice crop by 98 percent and leading to the mothballing of the mill last December.
I think that we can say that the food problem is not just one problem but the convergence of many smaller supply issues at the same time. The question occurs, however, what will happen if there is one big problem on top of a system strained by many smaller ones? _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Australia, the world's sixth-largest wheat exporter, is poised to sow what could be a record crop this year, according to GrainCorp Ltd.
``Everyone is ready for it,'' Mark Irwin, the Sydney-based company's chief executive officer, said today in a telephone interview. ``It's very much set up for it, it's going to be a very strong harvest if we get some rain in the next month or so, and follow-up rain later in the harvest.''
Grain farmers in Australia rely on rain starting at the end of this month to sow winter crops including wheat, barley and canola. Some grain growers in central Queensland state have begun planting wheat and summer rains in New South Wales state have been ``exceptional,'' Irwin said.
Soybean and corn output in Brazil will rise more than previously forecast this year, topping the records reached in 2007, the Agriculture Ministry said.
Farmers in Brazil, the world's second-biggest soybean producer, will harvest 59.99 million metric tons of the oilseed, up from a March estimate of 59.6 million tons, the ministry's crop forecasting agency, known as Conab, said today. Brazil's corn crop, the world's third biggest, will reach 56.2 million tons, up from a previous estimate of 55.3 million tons.
Surging soybean and corn prices led growers to increase planting and gave farmers more income to spend on improving the soil and fighting weeds and bugs. Yields also were boosted by above-average rainfall in the months before the harvest in the Center-West, which accounts for half of Brazil's soybean output.
Joined: Mar 04, 2007 Posts: 504 Location: Hong Kong
Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 2:47 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread
wisconsin_cur wrote:
Quote:
DENILIQUIN, Australia — Lindsay Renwick, the mayor of this dusty southern Australian town, remembers the constant whir of the rice mill. “It was our little heartbeat out there, tickety-tick-tickety,” he said, imitating the giant fans that dried the rice, “and now it has stopped.”
The Deniliquin mill, the largest rice mill in the Southern Hemisphere, once processed enough grain to meet the needs of 20 million people around the world. But six long years of drought have taken a toll, reducing Australia’s rice crop by 98 percent and leading to the mothballing of the mill last December.
I think that we can say that the food problem is not just one problem but the convergence of many smaller supply issues at the same time. The question occurs, however, what will happen if there is one big problem on top of a system strained by many smaller ones?
I don't quite understand your use of the words big and small here, Wisconsin_Cur. It seems to me that the problems underlying the food shortages - high fuel prices, top soil erosion, desertification, natural disasters, blight, etc. - are all quite serious in their own right, and any one on it's own could lead to starvation if severe enough. What's the "one big problem"? _________________ "We shall live in interesting times, and we shall die in them too." - Heineken
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