Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1473 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 5:59 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
"The seawater proved to be "highly oversaturated with solute methane," reports Shakhova. In the air over the sea, greenhouse-gas content was measured in some places at five times normal values. "In helicopter flights over the delta of the Lena River, higher methane concentrations have been measured at altitudes as high as 1,800 meters," she says."
It's beginning now. This will not be a gradual trend. This will be an event, a giant methane burp, so to speak.
AWI's results show that permafrost in the flat shelf is perilously close to thawing. Three to 12 kilometers from the coast, the temperature of sea sediment was -1 to -1.5 degrees Celsius, just below freezing.
Another 1-1.5 degrees and the shelf will look like a shook up soda can. An ice-free summer in the Arctic will do it. _________________ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:38 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Cid_Yama wrote:
"The seawater proved to be "highly oversaturated with solute methane," reports Shakhova. In the air over the sea, greenhouse-gas content was measured in some places at five times normal values. "In helicopter flights over the delta of the Lena River, higher methane concentrations have been measured at altitudes as high as 1,800 meters," she says."
It's beginning now. This will not be a gradual trend. This will be an event, a giant methane burp, so to speak.
AWI's results show that permafrost in the flat shelf is perilously close to thawing. Three to 12 kilometers from the coast, the temperature of sea sediment was -1 to -1.5 degrees Celsius, just below freezing.
Another 1-1.5 degrees and the shelf will look like a shook up soda can. An ice-free summer in the Arctic will do it.
I'll let Cid's post be my data. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 10:23 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Once we have completely clear trends that methane levels are exploding, we will already be toast, basically.
This has been the trend everywhere for the last thirty or so years with climate change. The brightest and most insightful minds point out that we are headed in the wrong direction, and all the mediocrities and interested powers claim that the trend lines are not yet completely clear yet, so let's just study and not change any patterns of behavior.
This in spite of the fact that the trend is pointing toward irremediable disaster (so the stakes are about as high as they can be and the odds are not good and getting worse) and the changes to avoid them are (or were earlier on) relatively benign and painless.
But the Tylers of the world always seem to hold the day. (And please don't get defensive; you seem a bright, sincere person, though perhaps a bit too ready to wish away the worst--a very understandable trait.) So nothing that comes remotely close to addressing the horrific scale of the problem is done or even suggested (in any forum of any influence). More studies are conducted, which are met with statements of need for yet more study.
The whole historic role of the IPCC has been essentially a stalling tactic. That's why when even this body, created to be maximally cautious in its statements, says that things are looking bad, we can be pretty sure that things are in fact far, far worse.
Look, I agree that a year's data would not be seen as significant under normal circumstances. But these are anything but normal circumstances. A gun is pointed at our collective head at point blank range (the enormity of the tonnage of methane hydrates on the brink of exploding out of the ocean floor into the atmosphere is after all referred to as the "clathrate gun").
You can tell me that I shouldn't worry about every quiver of the finger on the trigger, but somehow I don't feel very comforted by that admonition.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3647 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 6:22 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Cid_Yama wrote:
"The seawater proved to be "highly oversaturated with solute methane," reports Shakhova. In the air over the sea, greenhouse-gas content was measured in some places at five times normal values. "In helicopter flights over the delta of the Lena River, higher methane concentrations have been measured at altitudes as high as 1,800 meters," she says."
It's beginning now. This will not be a gradual trend. This will be an event, a giant methane burp, so to speak.
AWI's results show that permafrost in the flat shelf is perilously close to thawing. Three to 12 kilometers from the coast, the temperature of sea sediment was -1 to -1.5 degrees Celsius, just below freezing.
Another 1-1.5 degrees and the shelf will look like a shook up soda can. An ice-free summer in the Arctic will do it.
Do you have a link for this, I would like to read the whole thing. Thanks. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1172 Location: Central NC
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 6:55 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
dohboi wrote:
Once we have completely clear trends that methane levels are exploding, we will already be toast, basically.
This has been the trend everywhere for the last thirty or so years with climate change. The brightest and most insightful minds point out that we are headed in the wrong direction, and all the mediocrities and interested powers claim that the trend lines are not yet completely clear yet, so let's just study and not change any patterns of behavior.
This in spite of the fact that the trend is pointing toward irremediable disaster (so the stakes are about as high as they can be and the odds are not good and getting worse) and the changes to avoid them are (or were earlier on) relatively benign and painless.
But the Tylers of the world always seem to hold the day. (And please don't get defensive; you seem a bright, sincere person, though perhaps a bit too ready to wish away the worst--a very understandable trait.) So nothing that comes remotely close to addressing the horrific scale of the problem is done or even suggested (in any forum of any influence). More studies are conducted, which are met with statements of need for yet more study.
The whole historic role of the IPCC has been essentially a stalling tactic. That's why when even this body, created to be maximally cautious in its statements, says that things are looking bad, we can be pretty sure that things are in fact far, far worse.
Look, I agree that a year's data would not be seen as significant under normal circumstances. But these are anything but normal circumstances. A gun is pointed at our collective head at point blank range (the enormity of the tonnage of methane hydrates on the brink of exploding out of the ocean floor into the atmosphere is after all referred to as the "clathrate gun").
You can tell me that I shouldn't worry about every quiver of the finger on the trigger, but somehow I don't feel very comforted by that admonition.
Joined: Feb 09, 2006 Posts: 399 Location: Venezuela
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 10:10 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
dohboi wrote:
Once we have completely clear trends that methane levels are exploding, we will already be toast, basically.
This has been the trend everywhere for the last thirty or so years with climate change. The brightest and most insightful minds point out that we are headed in the wrong direction, and all the mediocrities and interested powers claim that the trend lines are not yet completely clear yet, so let's just study and not change any patterns of behavior.
This in spite of the fact that the trend is pointing toward irremediable disaster (so the stakes are about as high as they can be and the odds are not good and getting worse) and the changes to avoid them are (or were earlier on) relatively benign and painless.
But the Tylers of the world always seem to hold the day. (And please don't get defensive; you seem a bright, sincere person, though perhaps a bit too ready to wish away the worst--a very understandable trait.) So nothing that comes remotely close to addressing the horrific scale of the problem is done or even suggested (in any forum of any influence). More studies are conducted, which are met with statements of need for yet more study.
The whole historic role of the IPCC has been essentially a stalling tactic. That's why when even this body, created to be maximally cautious in its statements, says that things are looking bad, we can be pretty sure that things are in fact far, far worse.
Look, I agree that a year's data would not be seen as significant under normal circumstances. But these are anything but normal circumstances. A gun is pointed at our collective head at point blank range (the enormity of the tonnage of methane hydrates on the brink of exploding out of the ocean floor into the atmosphere is after all referred to as the "clathrate gun").
You can tell me that I shouldn't worry about every quiver of the finger on the trigger, but somehow I don't feel very comforted by that admonition.
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 2:37 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
cudabachi wrote:
dohboi wrote:
Once we have completely clear trends that methane levels are exploding, we will already be toast, basically.
This has been the trend everywhere for the last thirty or so years with climate change. The brightest and most insightful minds point out that we are headed in the wrong direction, and all the mediocrities and interested powers claim that the trend lines are not yet completely clear yet, so let's just study and not change any patterns of behavior.
This in spite of the fact that the trend is pointing toward irremediable disaster (so the stakes are about as high as they can be and the odds are not good and getting worse) and the changes to avoid them are (or were earlier on) relatively benign and painless.
But the Tylers of the world always seem to hold the day. (And please don't get defensive; you seem a bright, sincere person, though perhaps a bit too ready to wish away the worst--a very understandable trait.) So nothing that comes remotely close to addressing the horrific scale of the problem is done or even suggested (in any forum of any influence). More studies are conducted, which are met with statements of need for yet more study.
The whole historic role of the IPCC has been essentially a stalling tactic. That's why when even this body, created to be maximally cautious in its statements, says that things are looking bad, we can be pretty sure that things are in fact far, far worse.
Look, I agree that a year's data would not be seen as significant under normal circumstances. But these are anything but normal circumstances. A gun is pointed at our collective head at point blank range (the enormity of the tonnage of methane hydrates on the brink of exploding out of the ocean floor into the atmosphere is after all referred to as the "clathrate gun").
You can tell me that I shouldn't worry about every quiver of the finger on the trigger, but somehow I don't feel very comforted by that admonition.
So how would you fix the problem?
IMHO there´s not fixing, as dohboi wrote, we are toast; the currents levels of CO2 in the atmosphere link put us in an increase of 3 degrees. From 3 degrees we cannot go back link. If we were to stop CO2 emissions today (with all that that implies, for economy, industry, population, etc) is likely that we would reach that temperature anyway. We would reach at the very least 2 degrees for sure.
No one will sacrify their standard of life, and because of that, the voices that ask for more time, more studies or downright denial will always win. And remember, the stakes are higher here, we are not talking of leaving modern appliances and living like in 1930 like in some scenarios of PO. Is the climate of the planet were we live that´s in danger here.
Just my 2 cents. _________________ Stocking up on popcorn
Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 3:22 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
cudabachi wrote:
dohboi wrote:
(...)
So how would you fix the problem?
I know the question was not for me, but I can only think of this:
halt all non essential (water, food, work tools) consumption and breeding for some time, enough to revert the trends of CO2 emissions. _________________ anagami.net
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 3:54 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
cudabachi, I wish I had a nice neat answer for you, but I don't.
As zen's points suggest, anything that would begin to address the enormity of the problem would be shouted down from nearly every corner.
And even if we did a major powerdown, the evidence indicates that we are now in a full- out runaway greenhouse warming world. Nothing will now stop us from careening into a starkly different global climate system. The denialists have succeeded in putting off effective action till it is too late. I hope they all feel real proud about that accomplishment. But actually, pretty much everybody has been in denial of (or just plain ignorant of--willfully or otherwise) this most fundamental situation.
The fact that there is no hope of averting the worst is ultimately not relevant. If someone one knows and loves is dying with no hope of recovery, I would hope one wouldn't abuse them, would let them die in some kind of peace.
If we wake up tomorrow and start seeing the world as a being worth caring for, at this point it is going to be a kind of paliative care. We would have to "first do no harm." We've done enough of that already. But just ceasing our enormous abuse, just this minimum level prerequisite to anything we could call care, would involve humbling ourselves in ways inimicable to most modern sensibilies.
Web sites like www.myfootprint.org give a very rough picture of the directions for individual changes. Pretty much no one in the developed world has come very close to living within the means of the earth, much less far enough below the means of the earth to allow for a thriving living world beyond what is used by humans.
I'm sorry I can't be more helpful. I don't know that the mindset of "problems" and "solutions" really aplies here.
Make fun of me as you please, but I am very sad about this. I have a daughter, and even if the colapse slows signigicantly, her world will be greatly impoverished in just about every way.
Doubtless many will go on denying, and others will come up with technofixes that will almost all make things worse.
What we are seeing is beyond Biblical. Old Testament prophets called on nations to abandon all luxuries and dress in sackcloth and ashes for far more minor offences than ours--destroying living creation.
What should a modern day prophet call upon us to do or renounce?
Sorry for the gloomy ramble. Best wishes to all in this far-too-interesting world.
Joined: Sep 17, 2006 Posts: 633 Location: No man's land
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 6:21 am Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
cudabachi wrote:
So how would you fix the problem?
Make spiritual preps for death and rebirth into a new dimension. _________________ "It is no measure of health to be deemed sane in an insane society" J. Krishnamurti
Just how rapidly seafloor methane will be released depends on numerous factors that are quite difficult to assess. It is possible that seafloor methane will be released so slowly that it will only have a relatively minor warming effect on Earth's climate. On the other hand, because the coming methane release will be the result of our warming of the planet via the burning of fossil and other acrbon fuels, it could happen much more quickly.
Indeed, it seems that we are currently pumping the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at a much faster -- perhaps tens to hundreds of times faster -- rate than has ever before naturally occurred in the last half billion years or so of the Earth's history. The catastrophic warming we are causing is -- to the best of our knowledge -- unprecedented since the early days of our planet, billions of years ago. Such warming could well lead to methane catastrophe.
The onset of a methane catastrophe would be abrupt because it could be initiated by a major submarine landslide, which can happen in a matter of days or even hours, or by the venting of vast quantities of seafloor methane over a period of decades. These events can take place in what is essentially a geological eyeblink. Additional slumping and/or venting can continue for centuries to millennia.
The amount of methane that can be released is indeed massive. Estimates of the amount of seafloor methane generally range from about 5000 billion metric tons to around 20,000 billion metric tons (a metric ton is equal to 1.1 imperial tons, the standard ton used in the United States), though they usually range around 10,000 billion metric tons. This amount of methane contains about 7500 billion metric tons of carbon, vastly more than all the estimated carbon in all fossil fuels: petroleum, coal, and natural gas.
There is a simple way to put 10,000 billion metric tons of methane into perspective: it contains about ten times the amount of carbon (largely in the form of carbon dioxide) as does the entire atmosphere. Moreover, though methane entering the atmosphere is quickly oxidized, it is oxidized to carbon dioxide, so the problem of its warming ability will remain with us for thousands of years into the future.
A methane catastrophe, therefore, is an abrupt surge of greenhouse gas that could rival or exceed the carbon dioxide warming of the planet. It could potentially overwhelm the natural heat regulatory system of the Earth, which operates in a much more gradual way, and on a much more protracted time scale.
The quantity of methane that could be released is so massive there would be no remedial action that people would be able to take to mitigate it except in the most superficial way. Once a methane catastrophe were to begin, there would be major consequences for the planet and its inhabitants, human and other, and we would be able to do little except wait it out. Methane, in a very real sense, is the joker in the deck of global warming.
The author is being kind when he says "wait it out". _________________ "It is no measure of health to be deemed sane in an insane society" J. Krishnamurti
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 3:42 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
What I was trying (not very successfully) to say, zensui, was that your astute and accurate recommendation:
"halt all non essential (water, food, work tools) consumption and breeding for some time, enough to revert the trends of CO2 emissions"
was not one that would easily or widely embraced in the developed world.
Your prescriptions are not radical at all, given the situation, but most are ignorant of the radical and extreme nature of the mess we've landed ourselves in, so it sounds extreme.
To someone who is used to digging and does not recognize that he is in a hole, the suggestion to stop digging so that there may be chance to get out of the hole seems bizarre and extreme, and one that is likely to earn you a shovelful of dirt in your face.
Joined: Sep 17, 2006 Posts: 633 Location: No man's land
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 1:46 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Siberian Methane Melt is off and running
Tanada wrote:
While our current civilization might fall apart saying there will be no historians 5 or 200 years from now requires extinction of the species, which I firmly beleive is not acheivable.
It's not clear to me how humans could survive the release of 10,000 billion metric tons of methane into the atmosphere. Please explain. _________________ "It is no measure of health to be deemed sane in an insane society" J. Krishnamurti
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