I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 2:23 pm Post subject: Far East Nations Outbid US for Natural Gas Supplies
Will the US have enough natural gas supplies to make it through next winter, and the ones after?
The answer isn't necessarily yes if Asian countries continue to outbid the US for LNG supplies. LNG imports increased significantly into the US in 2007, a trend that may well not be repeated in 2008.
Quote:
Qatar Says China to Receive Gas Diverted From U.S. and Europe
By Ayesha Daya and Anthony DiPaola
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Qatar, the world's largest producer of liquefied natural gas, is diverting supplies destined for the U.S. and Europe to China because the Asian country pays more, Qatar's oil minister said today.
A supply agreement this month between Qatar and China ``is a diversion'' from Europe and the U.S., ``not new production,'' Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah told reporters as he arrived in Rome for the International Energy Forum. ``We are not in the charity business. Whoever will give me the best price, I will follow him.''
PetroChina Co. and China National Offshore Oil Corp., the nation's biggest owners of liquefied natural gas terminals, signed accords with Qatar on April 10 to import the fuel as early as 2009.
Qatar refused to supply Israel with the gas, known as LNG, during a meeting with Israel's Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni on April 15 because it doesn't have sufficient extra supply, Attiyah said.
``I met her and I told her we are not capable of selling gas to Israel. We are sold out,'' he said.
Qatar, which holds the world's third-largest gas reserves after Russia and Iran, is producing 31 million tons of LNG a year. Annual output will rise to 77 million tons a year by 2010.
New York Natural Gas Rises on Speculation of Supply Competition
By Reg Curren
April 18 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas in New York rose amid increased demand as distributors secure supplies to put into storage for winter in competition with industrial users.
U.S. inventories last week were 3 billion cubic feet lower than the five-year average of 1.264 trillion cubic feet, the Energy Department said yesterday. U.S. stocks rallied in the first four-day advance of the year, indicating demand from manufacturers may rise.
``We're going to need to buy a lot more gas this summer to be ready for the coming winter based on what happened this past year,'' said Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut.
Gas storage ``is setting up not to be a bearish thing, but bullish,'' said Beutel. ``Prices are going to go up because people are buying to inject it, increasing demand.''
Stockpiles last November were a record 3.545 trillion cubic feet and finished last month at 1.234 trillion, the lowest since May 2004. Supplies would have to rise 77 billion cubic feet a week through Nov. 1 to match last year's amount, Bill Newman of Research Capital Corp. in Calgary said in a note April 14.
Inventories have increased an average of 68 billion cubic feet a week during the North American summer over the past five summers, he said.
The next energy shock for Americans: natural gas
Posted Apr 18th 2008 10:37AM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: International markets, Other issues, Commodities, Oil
American citizens and corporations, already stung by the more than 200% increase in oil and gasoline prices since 1999, most likely will be confronted with another energy shock in the months and quarters ahead: natural gas.
U.S. natural gas prices have risen an astounding 93% since August 2007 -- this despite a mild winter in much of the nation -- as rising demand from energy-hungry Asian buyers, such as South Korea and Japan, have forced up natural gas' price, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday. (Subscription required.)
Natural gas, which traded Friday morning in the United States at $10.22 per million BTUs, heats 50% of U.S. homes, generates 20% of the nation's electricity, and is intrinsic to making everything from fertilizer to plastic bags.
International natural gas demand rises
Further, with solid international demand, and a U.S. price that's roughly one-half the global price, many analysts argue U.S. natural gas prices are likely to increase substantially, moving forward. That would create another "core inflation" price accelerator to a U.S. economy already experiencing rising core/retail inflation from oil's enormous rise from $25 per barrel in 1999 to more than $110 today.
But not all economists and analysts agree. Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Friday natural gas' price in the U.S. will depend on a number of factors, including regional use, conversions from coal-fired electric plants to natural gas (which is a cleaner energy form), diesel (particularly buses) conversion to natural gas, new household formation, the expansion of the natural gas transport grid, the price of oil, and the weather, among other factors.
Surge in Natural-Gas Price Stoked by New Global Trade
Further Gains Likely Despite 93% Spike; Bidding With Japan
By ANN DAVIS and RUSSELL GOLD
April 18, 2008; Page A1
Americans feeling the pain of record gasoline prices now face the likelihood of another fuel shock, from natural gas.
Prices in the U.S. have risen 93% since late August as power-hungry nations like South Korea and Japan compete in a global natural-gas market that scarcely existed a half-decade ago. Still, U.S. prices are as low as half the level of some overseas markets, suggesting they have much further to rise.
The global appetite for natural gas has profound implications for a U.S. economy already tipping toward recession and struggling against inflation pressures. The fuel heats half of U.S. homes, generates 20% of the country's electricity and is used to make everything from fertilizer to plastic bags. In March, rising natural-gas prices contributed to a higher than expected 1.1% increase in producer prices, according to the Labor Department.
U.S. natural-gas output has actually been rising in recent months, and not everyone agrees that prices are destined to surge. However, a significant number of financial players are now betting on an increase.
On Thursday a report by the Barclays Capital unit of Barclays PLC warned that, partly because of rising natural-gas prices, the U.S. could start to see spikes in electricity costs in as little as a year. "Power is at the cusp of its next boom cycle," analysts said. "When power markets tighten, prices do not notch up, they skyrocket."
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6662 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 3:59 pm Post subject: Re: Far East Nations Outbid US for Natural Gas Supplies
Like we've been saying for some time, even if we 'Murikans build more LNG terminals on our coasts, there is no guarantee whatsoever that they'll be the answer to our looming natural gas crunch. Sure, they'll be there, but will LNG tankers actually show up at them?
This will definitely not be a case of "if you build it, they will come". _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 4:24 pm Post subject: Re: Far East Nations Outbid US for Natural Gas Supplies
DantesPeak said:
Quote:
Will the US have enough natural gas supplies to make it through next winter, and the ones after?
With our own production stuck on a six year long plateau, regardless of price, and a crumbling financial system to complicate the situation, higher NG prices are going to have a devastating effect on the average American household!
All that cheap, made in China junk, that Americans have been proselytizing themselves to acquire, is going to come at a higher price than was stated on the tag.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4845 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 5:00 pm Post subject: Re: Far East Nations Outbid US for Natural Gas Supplies
You start adding all this crap up and a person has very little hope say 7-10 years down the road. Especially up here where heating is life and death (maybe not death, but being cold SUCKS ASS). I can't stand winter. Vegas may be hell on Earth, but at least its warm! _________________ Clothing should be optional.
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 5:32 pm Post subject: Re: Far East Nations Outbid US for Natural Gas Supplies
Zardoz wrote:
Like we've been saying for some time, even if we 'Murikans build more LNG terminals on our coasts, there is no guarantee whatsoever that they'll be the answer to our looming natural gas crunch. Sure, they'll be there, but will LNG tankers actually show up at them?
This will definitely not be a case of "if you build it, they will come".
Funny you should say that. That's our government's policy. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
You don't actually want to read that thread and educate yourself, do you.
Subtly is lost on you. The poster who boasted Iraq was on the verge of a huge boost in oil exports two weeks before al Malaki and the Hakim brothers decided to but heads with Moqtada and the other Sadarists. Who boasted of 100s of billions of barrels found of the coast of Indonesia without a single well being drilled. Who believes planting trees will make up for the ravages of CO2 and CH4 emissions. Cherry picks data to suit there own desperate needs.
This poster tells me I should listen to them alone instead of a wide diversity of opinions and form opinions of my own.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1360 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 6:47 pm Post subject: Re: Far East Nations Outbid US for Natural Gas Supplies
dorlomin wrote:
Subtly is lost on you. The poster who boasted Iraq was on the verge of a huge boost in oil exports two weeks before al Malaki and the Hakim brothers decided to but heads with Moqtada and the other Sadarists. Who boasted of 100s of billions of barrels found of the coast of Indonesia without a single well being drilled. Who believes planting trees will make up for the ravages of CO2 and CH4 emissions. Cherry picks data to suit there own desperate needs.
This poster tells me I should listen to them alone instead of a wide diversity of opinions and form opinions of my own.
A boy lost in a world of men
That thread is not about cherry-picking. It is a major paradigm shift in US and Canadian natural gas production, with huge new deposits being found and being exploited (or about to). That you would accuse me of cherry-picking after having given a link to that thread clearly tells me you did not bother to look it over, and probably that you have no interest in looking it over. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 6:57 pm Post subject: Re: Far East Nations Outbid US for Natural Gas Supplies
OilFinder2 wrote:
dorlomin wrote:
Subtly is lost on you. The poster who boasted Iraq was on the verge of a huge boost in oil exports two weeks before al Malaki and the Hakim brothers decided to but heads with Moqtada and the other Sadarists. Who boasted of 100s of billions of barrels found of the coast of Indonesia without a single well being drilled. Who believes planting trees will make up for the ravages of CO2 and CH4 emissions. Cherry picks data to suit there own desperate needs.
This poster tells me I should listen to them alone instead of a wide diversity of opinions and form opinions of my own.
A boy lost in a world of men
That thread is not about cherry-picking. It is a major paradigm shift in US and Canadian natural gas production, with huge new deposits being found and being exploited (or about to). That you would accuse me of cherry-picking after having given a link to that thread clearly tells me you did not bother to look it over, and probably that you have no interest in looking it over.
I have read it and thought about it thoroughly very thoroughly actualy.
You cherry pick data. Everyone on this site know this, no one take you seriously. You only provide a service of providing the latest extreame fantastist 'analysis' of whatever is in the news that day. It is usefull but your subsiquent analysis is bordering on the hysterical.
I like you. You provide me with what the doomers cant. The doomer scream "were Fark" loudly and often and dont convince me. You provide me with the best case scenario and I look at with a jaundiced and eye and see it for what I think it is. YOU convince me to be a doomer in a way no one else can. I see how you scrape the bottom of the barrel and think "if thats all we have left we are Fark.".
Keep up the good work. But fortunately we have people like Rockadoc123 and Pup55 to give more detailed and nuanced analysis.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1360 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 7:04 pm Post subject: Re: Far East Nations Outbid US for Natural Gas Supplies
dorlomin wrote:
You cherry pick date. Everyone on this site know this, no one take you seriously. You only provide a service of providing the latest extreame fantastist 'analysis' of whatever is in the news that day. It is usefull but your subsiquent analysis is bordering on the hysterical.
This chart, which I've shown many times now, is proof that I am not "cherry-picking" and providing "fantasist analysis." It is proof that the shales I am talking about in that thread can produce large amounts of natural gas. You choose to ignore this because it ruins your fantasist notions about scarcity and civilization getting its comuppance, or whatever it is that motivates you to believe what you do.
OilFinder2 wrote:
Texas Barnett Shale Gas Production
(1993 through 2006) Source
Joined: Mar 28, 2007 Posts: 358 Location: Cambs., UK
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 7:10 pm Post subject: Re: Far East Nations Outbid US for Natural Gas Supplies
Oh, hey look, OilFinder says there are MASSIVE deposits of fossil fuels just ready to be used. The world is saved.
And they all lived happily ever after, forgetting all the many numerous times the man was proven totally wrong with his Pollyanna mentality. _________________ "Nothing survives. Not your parents. Not your children. Not even stars."
-Pinbacker, Sunshine
Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 7:18 pm Post subject: Re: Far East Nations Outbid US for Natural Gas Supplies
OilFinder2 wrote:
This chart, which I've shown many times now, is proof that I am not "cherry-picking" and providing "fantasist analysis." It is proof that the shales I am talking about in that thread can produce large amounts of natural gas. You choose to ignore this because it ruins your fantasist notions about scarcity and civilization getting its comuppance, or whatever it is that motivates you to believe what you do.
Americans are infected with optimism. You are so optimistic.
So how is the 300 billion barrels of the coast of Indonesia comming along or the 200 billion barrels in the Bakken?
In life I know the worst case scenario is never true. But then nether is the best case. You have to read every possible source and make your own best assement, not just the delusional fantasies of the cornucopians or the doomers. The "shale gas" is expensive to extract. How long is that expense bearable and how much economic activity can that support. Not easy questions answered by ALL OF IT FOREVER!!!!!!!!!! type analysis, but slow best estimate analysis of each poster on ther own.
Life, like mineral deposts, is hard to fathom and difficult to mine. If you were to learn humility before the challenges of nature your cornucopian wet dreams would have some validity.
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The poster who boasted Iraq was on the verge of a huge boost in oil exports two weeks before al Malaki and the Hakim brothers decided to but heads with Moqtada and the other Sadarists. Who boasted of 100s of billions of barrels found of the coast of Indonesia without a single well being drilled. Who believes planting trees will make up for the ravages of CO2 and CH4 emissions. Cherry picks data to suit there own desperate needs.
