Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 620 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:12 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
yesplease wrote:
jlw61 wrote:
The national debt, which is what the country owes in total, is the real bugger, is closing in on 10 Trillion (that's a T) and climbing rapidly.
Actually, we've payed it already, give or take, via running the printing presses at WOT, aka inflating the money supply. The inflation adjusted dollar index, compared to when Clinton's administration left, has decreased proportionally to the increase in national debt. Everyone who has dollars, by virtue of the increase in the money supply, has paid for this Administration's spending habits proportionally to the number of dollars they have.
If I read this correctly, you are claiming that we've paid off the national debt by running the printing presses overtime? A large portion of that "debt" is in the hands of the Social Security and government retirement funds. That debt is still outstanding and the printing presses have been running overtime to prevent even more debt from accumulating than what has accumulated.
With that debt still outstanding, and it is, believe me, the retirees of the future get nothing. Imagine a large portion of the US population suddenly waking up to find out they've been screwed four ways to Wednesday. At that time there will be those in Washington wishing the conspiracy theorist were right about some sort of pandemic targeting senior citizens. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4375 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:18 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
jlw61 wrote:
yesplease wrote:
jlw61 wrote:
The national debt, which is what the country owes in total, is the real bugger, is closing in on 10 Trillion (that's a T) and climbing rapidly.
Actually, we've payed it already, give or take, via running the printing presses at WOT, aka inflating the money supply. The inflation adjusted dollar index, compared to when Clinton's administration left, has decreased proportionally to the increase in national debt. Everyone who has dollars, by virtue of the increase in the money supply, has paid for this Administration's spending habits proportionally to the number of dollars they have.
If I read this correctly, you are claiming that we've paid off the national debt by running the printing presses overtime? A large portion of that "debt" is in the hands of the Social Security and government retirement funds. That debt is still outstanding and the printing presses have been running overtime to prevent even more debt from accumulating than what has accumulated.
With that debt still outstanding, and it is, believe me, the retirees of the future get nothing. Imagine a large portion of the US population suddenly waking up to find out they've been screwed four ways to Wednesday. At that time there will be those in Washington wishing the conspiracy theorist were right about some sort of pandemic targeting senior citizens.
How do you think all those 78,000,000 gun toten boomers are going to react? Better beef up Blackwater.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:20 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
Hopefully most of them are Chablis drinking Democrats that think guns are for Rednecks? _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4375 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:25 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
MrBill wrote:
Hopefully most of them are Chablis drinking Democrats that think guns are for Rednecks?
Mr Bill, almost everyone across YOUR pond is armed. It has been an American right. We will not end up like Europe with regards to personal firearms being outlawed.
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:32 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
vision-master wrote:
MrBill wrote:
Hopefully most of them are Chablis drinking Democrats that think guns are for Rednecks?
Mr Bill, almost everyone across YOUR pond is armed. It has been an American right. We will not end up like Europe with regards to personal firearms being outlawed.
just joshing. we have a few firearms in the basement. and we know how to use them, too. not that I don't like a glass of wine now and again! ; - ))
p.s. the cypriots will shoot anything that moves. renowned poachers here for the migrating waterfowl and birds. shameful. these days I don't shoot anything that is not clay!
Roccman, RE: BK. thanks _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Last edited by MrBill on Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:37 am; edited 2 times in total
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4353 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:34 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
MrBill wrote:
BK?
Bankruptcy...
A 401k is fully protected.
Why people stay in a house, they don't own, that is dropping in value, and that even if it were for sale...banks are not lending ...IS BEYOND ME.
Mail in the keys...simple as that.
It is a business decision...and a sound one. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 5:15 pm Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
jlw61 wrote:
yesplease wrote:
jlw61 wrote:
The national debt, which is what the country owes in total, is the real bugger, is closing in on 10 Trillion (that's a T) and climbing rapidly.
Actually, we've payed it already, give or take, via running the printing presses at WOT, aka inflating the money supply. The inflation adjusted dollar index, compared to when Clinton's administration left, has decreased proportionally to the increase in national debt. Everyone who has dollars, by virtue of the increase in the money supply, has paid for this Administration's spending habits proportionally to the number of dollars they have.
If I read this correctly, you are claiming that we've paid off the national debt by running the printing presses overtime?
Not quite. The increase in national debt since the current administration entered office is proportional to the decrease in the dollar index. That is to say, the national debt is up about 33% and the dollar index is down about the same amount. If the government simply prints more money, above the usual rate of inflation, to pay for doing whatever it does, as opposed to the usual method of taxation, then as a result all the dollars of those who hold them will be worth correspondingly less, which, unless I'm interpreting this stuff incorrectly, is what seems to have happened. _________________
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 5:51 pm Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
jlw61 wrote:
A large portion of that "debt" is in the hands of the Social Security and government retirement funds.
Not AFAIK. Social Security isn't a trust in that sense. It's paid out of the budget yoy, based on the amount owned to retirees/etc.. The last time we ran a budget surplus, in 1999, we spent around 250 billion on Defense. Supposedly we've spent about 700 billion last year on defense. This difference, over the current administrations term thus far, of ~450 billion per year, is likely why the current deficit is around 9 trillion, up about 3 trillion from 6 trillion in 1999. Like I said before, printing money to pay for this increase in debt each year has resulted in a devaluation of the dollar proportional to the increase in debt.
jlw61 wrote:
That debt is still outstanding and the printing presses have been running overtime to prevent even more debt from accumulating than what has accumulated.
They can't do that, at least not for any length of time. If we print more money, the value of other currencies relative to ours drops, so we cannot afford what we used to. IMO, instead of paying for the increase in spending via increased taxation directly, the administration has payed for it by printing more money. In effect, making the dollars others hold worth proportionally less.
jlw61 wrote:
With that debt still outstanding, and it is, believe me, the retirees of the future get nothing. Imagine a large portion of the US population suddenly waking up to find out they've been screwed four ways to Wednesday. At that time there will be those in Washington wishing the conspiracy theorist were right about some sort of pandemic targeting senior citizens.
There is no debt outstanding from social security. What is projected to happen is that as that because of the difference in population size, and way by which Social Security is payed, it may be constrained around 2040 and on.
Quote:
Specifically, in 2042 and for many decades thereafter, the Social Security system can continue to pay benefits, but benefit payments will be constrained by the revenue base from the 12.4% FICA (Social Security payroll) tax on wages. According to the Social Security trustees, continuing payroll tax revenues at the rate of 12.4% will enable Social Security to pay about 74% of promised benefits during the 2040s, with this ratio falling to about 70% by the end of the forecast period in 2080. [6] Whether this means the system is "broke" is a debate for linguists and politicians.
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 620 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 8:22 pm Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
[quote="vision-master"]
jlw61 wrote:
yesplease wrote:
jlw61 wrote:
The national debt, which is . . .
If I read this correctly, you are claiming . . .
How do you think all those 78,000,000 gun toten boomers are going to react? Better beef up Blackwater.
Vision Master, you once again squandered an opportunity to be taken seriously. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 620 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:47 pm Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
Ok, perhaps I'm reading reading this incorrectly and I want to understand what you are saying:
Quote:
The increase in national debt since the current administration entered office is proportional to the decrease in the dollar index. That is to say, the national debt is up about 33% and the dollar index is down about the same amount.
While I'm not sure I buy this, it's going to take me some time to think it through. I'm not sure if this is causal or coincidental. In any case, without more information, I won't argue this.
Quote:
If the government simply prints more money, above the usual rate of inflation, to pay for doing whatever it does, as opposed to the usual method of taxation, then as a result all the dollars of those who hold them will be worth correspondingly less, which, unless I'm interpreting this stuff incorrectly, is what seems to have happened.
Isn't this the definition of inflation? If they print more money, beyond a certain point, they are deflating the value and not doing anything to help the debt.
Earlier you said in reply to my statement:
yesplease wrote:
jlw61 wrote:
The national debt, which is what the country owes in total, is the real bugger, is closing in on 10 Trillion (that's a T) and climbing rapidly.
Actually, we've payed it already, give or take, via running the printing presses at WOT, aka inflating the money supply.
Did you actually mean to say that the debt is paid? Or are you meaning to say that the debt is not going up as high as it should because of all the money being printed?
Quote:
The inflation adjusted dollar index, compared to when Clinton's administration left, has decreased proportionally to the increase in national debt. Everyone who has dollars, by virtue of the increase in the money supply, has paid for this Administration's spending habits proportionally to the number of dollars they have.
Here you must be attempting to say that the debt is not going up as high as it should, with which I can't argue.
Please clarify. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:45 pm Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
jlw61 wrote:
While I'm not sure I buy this, it's going to take me some time to think it through. I'm not sure if this is causal or coincidental. In any case, without more information, I won't argue this.
Like I said, I'm not sure, but given that the government stopped publishing the M3, according to some sources it has increased significantly, and the dollar has tumbled proportionally compared to the increase in national debt (By that I mean the dollar has declined (~33-35%) since 2000 roughly proportionally to the national debt increase (~33-35%) since then), I think that the addition of more money to pay for additional expenditures, such as more military funding and bailouts, has reduced the value of the dollar. As opposed to raising taxes in order to pay for the additional expenditures in the usual manner.
jlw61 wrote:
Isn't this the definition of inflation? If they print more money, beyond a certain point, they are deflating the value and not doing anything to help the debt.
I think it depends o the context. For example, if a government prints more money to keep pace with additional wealth, it's inflation, but as long as the increase in wealth is the same as the increase in currency, it won't deflate the currency. However, if the currency is out of line with any gains in wealth then it decreases the value of the currency. Course, I'm just talking based on my gut, and since it's been quite a few years since econ, I could very well be mistaken.
jlw61 wrote:
Did you actually mean to say that the debt is paid? Or are you meaning to say that the debt is not going up as high as it should because of all the money being printed?
I meant to say that the debt the current administration has created was paid by simply printing more money above the usual inflation rate, which I think act as a tax on everyone holding American dollars, in order to pay for the current administration's spending.
jlw61 wrote:
Quote:
The inflation adjusted dollar index, compared to when Clinton's administration left, has decreased proportionally to the increase in national debt. Everyone who has dollars, by virtue of the increase in the money supply, has paid for this Administration's spending habits proportionally to the number of dollars they have.
Here you must be attempting to say that the debt is not going up as high as it should, with which I can't argue.
Please clarify.
It's not that, at least if I'm reading what you're saying correctly. Essentially, over the last seven years, the administration has incurred more debt, which they need to pay for. When they entered, the dollar index was at ~108, and now it's at ~73, which means that compared to everyone else's currency, the dollar has dropped ~33%. The national debt when they entered was ~six trillion, and today it was ~9.2 trillion, a ~35% increase. So, coincidentally or not, the national debt has increased proportionally with the decrease in value of the dollar. Like I said earlier in the post, I think this is because the administration has been creating more currency above the usual rate of inflation to pay for additional expenditures _________________
Joined: Jan 29, 2005 Posts: 362 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:49 pm Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
(no disrespect to OP, but)
-1.
Don't forget the weimar reset 7 mths after germany's hyperinflation. The GOVT hyper-inflated out, and private banks gave them the finger, and refused to lend to govt. Cost of govt debt went up, forced to reset.
Painful 7 mths. Those who burnt the notes for firewood cried more.
Also, hyper-inflation vs deflation is based on govt debt denomination. One just has to wonder which way the debt is denominated with in order to have inflation or deflation? (south americas, africa, euro, japan, china, usa, canada, uk....)
Anyway, right now it's $5 (or is it $4?) of debt to generate $1 of GDP. I won't buy the hyper inflation scenario, but have sufficient hedges in case my bet is wrong. _________________ regards,
Rostov
"Some {} are more equal than others"
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 620 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 11:31 pm Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
yesplease wrote:
jlw61 wrote:
A large portion of that "debt" is in the hands of the Social Security and government retirement funds.
Not AFAIK. Social Security isn't a trust in that sense. It's paid out of the budget yoy, based on the amount owned to retirees/etc.. The last time we ran a budget surplus, in 1999, we spent around 250 billion on Defense. Supposedly we've spent about 700 billion last year on defense. This difference, over the current administrations term thus far, of ~450 billion per year, is likely why the current deficit is around 9 trillion, up about 3 trillion from 6 trillion in 1999. Like I said before, printing money to pay for this increase in debt each year has resulted in a devaluation of the dollar proportional to the increase in debt.
Ronald Reagan had the SS withholding raised so that we would build up a trust fund to cover the shortfalls in future years. The fact that SS is still solvent is because there is still more money coming in than going out,. This will change in about 2017. The excess money has been replaced by IOUs and dropped into the general fund. So instead of building up an actual trust fund full of money, they've set up the destruction of either SS when the process goes negative or the economy if we try to live up to the IOUs. The other choice is to deflate the money even further by printing the money required to cover the IOUs.
Quote:
jlw61 wrote:
That debt is still outstanding and the printing presses have been running overtime to prevent even more debt from accumulating than what has accumulated.
They can't do that, at least not for any length of time. If we print more money, the value of other currencies relative to ours drops, so we cannot afford what we used to. IMO, instead of paying for the increase in spending via increased taxation directly, the administration has payed for it by printing more money. In effect, making the dollars others hold worth proportionally less.
NOW I UNDERSTAND what you're saying... Thank you! You are correct on this point, they've tried to pay for the increases by printing extra money. Unfortunately they are destroying the dollar and the debt is still rising at an alarming rate.
Quote:
jlw61 wrote:
With that debt still outstanding, and it is, believe me, the retirees of the future get nothing. Imagine a large portion of the US population suddenly waking up to find out they've been screwed four ways to Wednesday. At that time there will be those in Washington wishing the conspiracy theorist were right about some sort of pandemic targeting senior citizens.
There is no debt outstanding from social security. What is projected to happen is that as that because of the difference in population size, and way by which Social Security is payed, it may be constrained around 2040 and on.
Quote:
Specifically, in 2042 and for many decades thereafter, the Social Security system can continue to pay benefits, but benefit payments will be constrained by the revenue base from the 12.4% FICA (Social Security payroll) tax on wages. According to the Social Security trustees, continuing payroll tax revenues at the rate of 12.4% will enable Social Security to pay about 74% of promised benefits during the 2040s, with this ratio falling to about 70% by the end of the forecast period in 2080. [6] Whether this means the system is "broke" is a debate for linguists and politicians.
Wrong, this has been the biggest lie told by the MSM and to prove this, I direct you to a page at the Social Security web site.
Quote:
The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the financial health of the Social Security Trust Funds. While the key dates for program costs exceeding tax revenues and Trust Fund exhaustion remain unchanged...
Here they mention the trust fund. You have a board of trustees. By definition, if you have a board of trustees, you have a trust. In this case, as outlined in the document, it is a trust fund.
Quote:
The projected point at which tax revenues will fall below program costs comes in 2017 -- the same as the estimate in last year’s report.
The projected point at which the Trust Funds will be exhausted comes in 2041 -- the same as the estimate in last year’s report.
So in this trust, is money. In 2017 the amount of money coming into the trust will be less than the amount of money going out. Then the trust fund will be exhausted in 2041.
Somebody thinks they have a trust fund. And they do!
For about 25 years, that TRUST FUND has been filled with IOUs from the treasury department! I'll bet those IOUs come with a 30 year date on them. [Note: Let's see, 1983 + 30 is 2013. OMG! The Mayans were right!]
Quote:
The assets of the combined OASDI Trust Funds increased by about $190 billion in 2007 to a total of $2.2 trillion.
Here again, they say the Social Security trust fund has assets! Those assets are IOUs, nothing more!
Quote:
The combined Trust Fund assets earned interest at an effective annual rate of 5.3 percent in 2007.
And the interest is paid with more IOUs. This is from the Social Security web site. This is but one of many documents that will show that there is a trust fund for social security recipients. However, instead of a bunch of money sitting in some safe place (ok, it's a lock box ) it is just a bunch of IOUs courtesy of congress and the treasury department.
Sorry to burst anyone's bubble, but in 2017, those IOUs will come due in a big way since they will be needed to pay actual benefits... and guess who gets to pay them! _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 1334 Location: Somewhere there
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 7:34 am Post subject: Re: Get Rid of Yer Dollars While Ye Can: Hyperinflation Com
there is 1 point everyone is missing, when they talk about hyperinflation in US. Americans don't own anything; there are more mortgages than paid off houses, more car loans than a value of paid off cars, and a WAY more debt than savings. So what is a point of hyperinflation? To strip Americans of their personal debts?
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) it is just a bunch of IOUs courtesy of congress and the treasury department.
