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mos6507
Fission
Joined: Aug 03, 2007
Posts: 2487
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 Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 3:50 pm Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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| Airport traffic has been increasing up to now. For instance, Los Angeles (LAX) has a huge expansion plan they are working on. I think any severe contraction in the airline industry will cause a lot of rethink. Hopefully not too many airports are already in the middle of expansions. |
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joeltrout
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Sep 19, 2007
Posts: 916
Location: Land of the Tongva tribe
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| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 3:57 pm Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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| mos6507 wrote: | | Airport traffic has been increasing up to now. For instance, Los Angeles (LAX) has a huge expansion plan they are working on. I think any severe contraction in the airline industry will cause a lot of rethink. Hopefully not too many airports are already in the middle of expansions. |
The only thing that could help LAX is the number of East Asians primarily Chinese flying into it. The area where I live has seen an increase in home values and I talked to a realtor last week and he said East Asian investors are buying homes in the area to use as an investment and to hold until retirement then move to Los Angeles.
China has seen many many of its citizens become very wealthy over the last several years and they are parking some of that money in residential real estate here in the city.
joeltrout
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frankthetank
Fusion
Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Posts: 4162
Location: Southwest WI
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| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 4:32 pm Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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Its all about the money. Like Tyler said. Once people get priced out, they'll cut flights/less efficient planes and we'll start down the other side of the "peak" in airline travel.
I do wonder what the cruise ships will do in 10 years. Most of them are full of middle class people. Maybe they can use them passenger ships across the Atlantic/Pacific..minus the magician and the buffet.
Joel-
I posted this before, but my brother back in December flew to Florida to get on a cruise ship. He left here at 6Am (drove to Milwaukee) and didn't end up in Florida until midnight (layovers). That same amount of time he could've driven a lot of miles. (70x18=1260miles)... Would have been cheaper too (whole family of 4).
Flying out of KLSE is worthless in the winter...you might as well go by cross country ski...
My nephew a month ago got to fly on a leased jet from KLSE to Nassau (Bahamas)...about 3 hours in nice plush leather seats, tv, etc (hes not rich, his friend is)...
Non stop flights or else it blows...
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"Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
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joeltrout
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Sep 19, 2007
Posts: 916
Location: Land of the Tongva tribe
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| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 4:41 pm Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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| frankthetank wrote: |
Non stop flights or else it blows... |
I agree. I do all my flying out of LAX so most all of my flights are non-stop. The smaller airports that have to fly to hubs will be getting hammered because vacation and business travel will slow.
joeltrout
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ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people. |
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9
Coal
Joined: Apr 22, 2008
Posts: 8
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| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 5:57 pm Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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| No. Flying will be a luxury of the rich and of business. |
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mos6507
Fission
Joined: Aug 03, 2007
Posts: 2487
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| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:22 pm Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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| frankthetank wrote: |
I do wonder what the cruise ships will do in 10 years. Most of them are full of middle class people. Maybe they can use them passenger ships across the Atlantic/Pacific..minus the magician and the buffet.
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Outside of retirees I don't know how many average workers get enough vacation time to take cruises.
I think corporate america is going to have a hard time allowing its workforce the extra days off it will take to allow them to travel via slower means to visit far flung relatives. |
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dunewalker
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jun 30, 2005
Posts: 562
Location: northern California
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| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:33 pm Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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Last time I flew was in 1969. Never again.
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seldom_seen
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 12, 2005
Posts: 1941
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| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:49 pm Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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I predict that we will not be flying in 10 years, and commercial air travel will have ceased. Currently the industry seems to be operating on inertia left over from better economic times.
To run a national and international air-traffic system, as well as regional, national and international network of airports requires a level of complexity that can only be maintained during the good times of virtually free jet fuel and fat government and industry budgets.
The problem won't be that we can't make a plane fly or find fuel for it. It will be that our technological society will have reverted to a simpler state that does not have the ability to run large scale commercial aviation.
Decentralization, deglobalization, fragmentation will put an end to quasi-governmental super organizations like commercial airlines.
Air travel will be one of the "wonders" of the oil age that our descendants will marvel at. |
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AWPrime
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jul 07, 2005
Posts: 678
Location: Europe
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| Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 4:56 am Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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That might only happen in 75 year, not 10 years.
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Fighting technobabble and Woo Woos.
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IslandCrow
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Sep 12, 2005
Posts: 759
Location: Finland
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| Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 5:48 am Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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I sort of hope that there will be some flights in 10 years - or I will have to effectively say goodbye to my children. 
While I do enjoy the chance to drive to visit them, that involves a lot of driving and two long ferry rides. In 10 years I will be getting to the age that I would not enjoy that amount of driving. The alternative would be three ferries and two days (at least) on trains - that was a strain when I was about 20, with the need to change trains at odd hours of the night, so I don't want to do that when I am over 60! It also seems hard to spend about half of one's holiday in traveling.
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IslandCrow
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Sep 12, 2005
Posts: 759
Location: Finland
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| Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 6:05 am Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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we won't fly in this...but it looks cold and the idea is that it will stay aloft several years.
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We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice. |
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allenwrench
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Apr 23, 2008
Posts: 631
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| Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 8:02 am Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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| lper100km wrote: | Probably, though most likely only if you are privileged or wealthy, which amounts to the same thing, or military, government or business vip.
At the present rate of crude price escalation, I would expect airline travel to be severely impacted well before ten years. Many low cost air lines are already feeling the pinch and some have folded. The national carriers will last longest and those that aren’t national carriers now will likely become govt. subsidized as flagship bearers.
Some possible consequences:-
Good for homeland security. No more huge line ups at airports processing people from abroad. And people won’t be as free to move around the country either, as visitors or residents.
Extremely bad for tourism. However, locals will be able to enjoy the beauty of their home towns without traffic jams, noisy bars open til 3am etc etc.
Good for disease control. Less ability for the spread of non indigenous micro critters from exotic places like chicken coops in Thailand.
Good for passenger shipping lines, trans Atlantic, trans Pacific etc. Probably not so good for cruise lines – a dispensable luxury. Maybe the return of the four masted clippers that you only see on whisky labels today.
Bad news for UPS, USPS, Amazon and eBay.
Good news for Amtrak
Bad news for LD trucking
Bad news for Maine lobster gourmands in San Francisco
The economy by then? – don’t ask! |
You have to wonder what such an airline would charge to fly the privileged few?
It was said that Branson is testing bio fuels in his jets. What sort of ratio? |
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allenwrench
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Apr 23, 2008
Posts: 631
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| Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 8:09 am Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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| mos6507 wrote: | | Airport traffic has been increasing up to now. For instance, Los Angeles (LAX) has a huge expansion plan they are working on. I think any severe contraction in the airline industry will cause a lot of rethink. Hopefully not too many airports are already in the middle of expansions. |
This is a problem with the group think when it comes to global warming and peak oil. They talk about conservation and the planet heating up. Then with the next breath it is all about building bigger, better and faster monstrosities to suck down the fossil fuels. We only pay sustainability lip service. We can look to Dubai, India and China to see the American Dream we exported in action. |
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allenwrench
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Apr 23, 2008
Posts: 631
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| Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 8:12 am Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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| frankthetank wrote: | Its all about the money. Like Tyler said. Once people get priced out, they'll cut flights/less efficient planes and we'll start down the other side of the "peak" in airline travel.
I do wonder what the cruise ships will do in 10 years. Most of them are full of middle class people. Maybe they can use them passenger ships across the Atlantic/Pacific..minus the magician and the buffet.
Joel-
I posted this before, but my brother back in December flew to Florida to get on a cruise ship. He left here at 6Am (drove to Milwaukee) and didn't end up in Florida until midnight (layovers). That same amount of time he could've driven a lot of miles. (70x18=1260miles)... Would have been cheaper too (whole family of 4).
Flying out of KLSE is worthless in the winter...you might as well go by cross country ski...
My nephew a month ago got to fly on a leased jet from KLSE to Nassau (Bahamas)...about 3 hours in nice plush leather seats, tv, etc (hes not rich, his friend is)...
Non stop flights or else it blows... |
Are non stops becoming harder to find on some routes as airlines try to fill up every seat?
Cruise ships suck down lots of fuel too. I have not kept up with cruise prices. Are they hurting like the airlines or do they just raise their fees and people gladly pay? |
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Ainan
Heavy Crude
Joined: Feb 18, 2008
Posts: 189
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| Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:43 am Post subject: Re: Will we still be flying in 10 years? |
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For only £10000 down to pay for lessons, fees and a second hand micro lite you could be flying in 20 years time easy! About as fuel efficient as an American car. If you can make your own bio fuel...
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