Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1852 Location: Australia
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 7:48 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
shortonoil wrote:
I am taking this report with a rather large grain of salt, but lemetropolecafe.com has been pretty dependable over time. If anyone else has info on this, please post it.
Quote:
FDIC checks
To all; the recent news that Wells Fargo and Washington Mutual are not accepting Indy Mac/FDIC checks is beyond belief. These actions carry ramifications that could not appear in a sci-fi movie. Are we to believe that 2 major US banks do not trust the federal government? If this policy is not reversed almost immediately, then the fuse is lit. This is, as far as I know the first time [other than dishoarding of $s] that the credit quality of the US government has come into question other than in the CDS markets. 8 weeks to clear a check? Third world countries clear US personal checks in 30 days! If this goes unchecked, how long will it be before the entire system refuses checks and accepts only Fed fund wire transfers? The epileptic siezures in the credit markets was like oil pouring out of the engine. Failure to accept/clear FDIC checks is akin to shoving a lit rag into the gas tank. They both have the same results more or less, only one explodes much faster and will even melt the tires to the ground.
Indy Mac's failure will consume between 7-14% of FDIC's current available funds. A run on two or three midsized banks will use over half of what is remaining. Bottom line, the Fed will try to create Dollars upon Dollars to bail out everything. I don't think they can create Dollars fast enough or in sufficient quantity to keep banks and markets open. I do however think that in their failure to "save the system", they will destroy the international value of the Dollar. Possibly overnight. The ultimate bank run will not be Citigroup, Bank America, or Wells Fargo. It will be foreigners "standing in line" to get their Dollars out. It will be the failure of confidence in the US govenment. When US checks can no longer be cleared overseas, those banking systems will then have been dragged into the banking abyss with us. This is global.
The simplest solution to all of this is to add a minimum of 3 zeros to the price of Gold. That puts 1000 times more capital into central bank coffers. Those that still have their Gold. Regards, Bill H.
SNIP
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Repeat, this is just an attempt to follow up on what COULD be actual information. Let's not believe it until it is verified!
If you had scrolled up a few posts you woul have seen the same + similar news from LA Times.
It has since then popped up in quite a few sites.
Not sure how many of these base their articles on the one and same source though. (search google for Indymac checks)
Like:
Trouble persists for some IndyMac customers
Money.CNN
Banks reportedly not taking IndyMac checks
mcnbc _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1852 Location: Australia
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:09 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
One of my favorite analysts, Marc Faber, is currently visiting Australia. He differs somewhat in opinion from my other favorite commentators like Schiff and Jim Rogers in that he is more pessimistic in development in Asia (He hasn't earned the name Dr Doom for nothing.), so I hope he is a bit wrong.
When he talks about decoupling not having taken place, I think he misses the point that for this to happen, currencies must apprciate first. Significant appreciation of for instance Yuan is what will drive the decoupling, not the other way around.
Here is what he said in a speech in Melbourne (Article);
Quote:
Dr Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, last night dropped in for a few hours at a club on Bourke Street, Melbourne, to scare the pants off the Chartered Financial Analysts Society at its annual forecasting dinner.
.
.
Answering questions at the end, Faber relaxed and said what he really thinks: “I think the whole world will totally collapse. This is a completely unprecedented situation. Financial institutions have no idea what they own any more.
.
.
“My advice (to the chartered financial analysts at the dinner) is to buy a farm and learn how to drive a tractor.”
Does that make your hair stand up, or what?
He also talks about possible sharp pullbacks but CB's not being able to tighten credit. Thus long term commodity bull remains in place.
Article
He was also recently interviewed on Lateline in Australia.
(This may have been posted elsewhere, but here is the link again;)
ABC, Lateline _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:22 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Micki wrote:
Does that make your hair stand up, or what?
Actually that is pretty much what I would have expected anyway. The Chinese especially don't HAVE to go and play nice and try to save the world. We gave them all the factories etc. even if it goes *boom* they have a large enough population to (in the long run) pull themselves out by their bootstraps.
Many analysts in the West make the big mistake to think in Western terms on how China will act, mainly because so far China has played along. But to think that the Powers That Be in China will do this forever is... well, let's just say optimistic thinking.
If they can go out and get rid of all their competition for world power domination by enduring a little bit of pain themselves, they may just do this.
The notion some neo-cons seem to have that the US could take on China militarily is laughable at best, even if the military wouldn't be bogged down in Iraq at the moment, the Chinese have their hand on the trigger and can cause a world financial melt down before the first carrier group is n the China sea (yes yes, I know they have one at all times in the Strait of Taiwain, but you get the idea).
Around eight or nine years ago the Chinese actually announced a ten year plan to bring more people into the middle class, up to 300 million people within a ten year time frame, this was, I think, back in '98, which would mean this year the "clock is up". I did believe for a while now that we were on borrowed time with them, they want a successful Olympiade but after that I would imagine all bets are off.
This fall / winter should be interesting, because they may actually start showing their hand.
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 1:43 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Snowrunner wrote:
Around eight or nine years ago the Chinese actually announced a ten year plan to bring more people into the middle class, up to 300 million people within a ten year time frame, this was, I think, back in '98, which would mean this year the "clock is up". I did believe for a while now that we were on borrowed time with them, they want a successful Olympiade but after that I would imagine all bets are off.
This fall / winter should be interesting, because they may actually start showing their hand.
They have already shown some cards (satellite shot down, business deals with the ME, African resources, Venezuela oil, etc. etc.).
But the Olympics,I believe, is their "Debutante Ball". Their emergence as an openly dominant player will be something to see. Unfortunately for the USA, their house is in pretty good order and their ducks are in a row; their trillions of surplus vs the USA's enormous debt leaves no question as to the outcome. The coming world econmic crisis will be a much-needed slowdown for them.
In fact, the USA's business leaders have been in large part already bought and paid for. Are they going to allow any actions that will imperil their 49% interest in huge Chinese factories and holdings?
Joined: May 20, 2008 Posts: 688 Location: I have a whole ward
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:31 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
"The notion some neo-cons seem to have that the US could take on China militarily is laughable at best"
No neo-con worth his salt would ever suggest such a thing. The US cannot militarily confront China anymore than China can confront the US. It will be a proxy war.
Why do you think we invaded Iraq first? _________________ Viddy well, little brother. Viddy well.
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 7:42 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
I read a lot of other sites for more direct news (I try to go to the forums where the people have boots on the street to hear what they are saying) and it's frightening how distorted and broken the fundamentals are versus what Joe Six Pack believes is true due to the pablum he/she is fed from the Main Stream Media.
Just talked to my friend and the regulators have been there for 3 months. He told me that they haven't been siezed yet because the FDIC hasn't found a buyer yet. They typically don't seize the bank until they know they can offload it off on another bank or buyer. That's why Indymac threw them a curve. They were watching the other banks on their list and when Indymac went down, the FDIC has to completely run the bank until they can find someone to take it over. My friend told me that they are selling CD'S like mad and don't care if they go over the $100k limit right under the regulators noses.
The fact is that the FDIC has been doing the same **** that the banks have been doing with foreclosures; hiding them. Even though a bank is way under capital requirements, the regulators are still letting them operate like nothing as changed. That is why we haven't seen more banks going down. Keep hiding the sausage until things improve.
"Against a backdrop of global credit uncertainties, falling property prices and lower reinvestment rates, the industry model has collapsed," said Mark Hotchin, joint owner of the company with Eric Watson.
A treatise on how debt evolved since pre-Great Depression days, to the current crisis. This is an extremely well-written piece.
Asia Times: Debt Capitalism Self-Destructs
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:40 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Bush drops opposition to FNM/FRE & housing bailout.
Quote:
AP
Bush drops opposition to housing bill
Wednesday July 23, 10:34 am ET
By Julie Hirschfeld Davis, Associated Press Writer
Bush drops opposition to Democratic-sponsored housing bill hours before expected House vote
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Bush dropped his opposition Wednesday to a broad housing package aimed at bolstering the sagging economy, despite his objections to including $3.9 billion for neighborhoods hit hardest by foreclosures. The House was expected to vote on the bill Wednesday, and it could become law as early as this week.
ADVERTISEMENT
Under the bill, the government would help struggling homeowners get new, cheaper loans and would be allowed to offer troubled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a cash infusion.
The Bush administration and lawmakers in both parties teamed to negotiate the measure, which pairs Democrats' top priorities -- federal help for homeowners facing foreclosure and $3.9 billion for devastated neighborhoods -- with Republicans' goal of reining in mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac while reassuring financial markets of their stability.
Bush had objected to the neighborhood grants, which would be for buying and fixing up foreclosed properties, saying that they were aimed at helping bankers and lenders, not homeowners who are in trouble.
White House press secretary Dana Perino announced Bush's switch in a telephone conference call with reporters. "We believe this is not the time for a prolonged veto fight, but we are confident the president would prevail in one," she said.
...
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 10:36 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
emersonbiggins wrote:
Bush drops opposition to FNM/FRE & housing bailout.
*Gag*
Screw this. I'm turning in all my dollars & buying cold hard gold. It's that or sit here idly while they whittle away what's left of the value right out of my bank account. Congratulations Bush: the one chance you maybe had left to NOT Fark up totally and utterly - you just blew it.
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:08 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
jbrovont wrote:
emersonbiggins wrote:
Bush drops opposition to FNM/FRE & housing bailout.
*Gag*
Screw this. I'm turning in all my dollars & buying cold hard gold. It's that or sit here idly while they whittle away what's left of the value right out of my bank account. Congratulations Bush: the one chance you maybe had left to NOT Fark up totally and utterly - you just blew it.
PMs are down right now since lots of money fled commodities recently. This is an EXCELLENT time to buy, IMHO. I just hope they are still down next Thursday on payday.
After congress passes this "Weapons of Mass Dollar Destruction" bill today, I think PMs/Oil/Corn/etc are going to resume their brisk march upwards.
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:36 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
I cant believe on a peak OIL website people are applauding the Chinese and commenting on their global strength.
How about the fact they heavily subsidize fuel costs which is really eating into their budget, or the fact that when the Olympics are over they will probably slash that subsidy and their economy will have a sudden halt because of energy costs?
Its like people think China is iummune to energy costs.... _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:47 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Micki said:
Quote:
If you had scrolled up a few posts you woul have seen the same + similar news from LA Times.
It has since then popped up in quite a few sites.
Not sure how many of these base their articles on the one and same source though.
Quote:
Washington Mutual: "We have a check-hold policy that takes into consideration a variety of factors, for example, the amount of the check and the state where the check originated," she said.
Quote:
Wells Fargo & Co. did express concern about people creating fraudulent IndyMac checks, but said it is following the same guidelines it applies to all bank checks, which can include a hold on the check.
Micki, all of these links essentially quote from the same sources, verbatim. There is no explanation in any (that makes any sense) as why some of these banks don’t want to process the FDIC, Indymac checks. The only conclusion, since they are not all delaying processing these checks, is that many banks do not have the cash reserves to handle them without first receiving the funds from the FDIC.
I would conclude that these banks have not been re-liquefied by the FED’s money pump, and are still on very thin ice.
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 12:25 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Specop_007 said:
Quote:
I cant believe on a peak OIL website people are applauding the Chinese and commenting on their global strength.
Agree with you totally Specop, China represents the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the planet. China, because of misallocation of farm land and environmental damage, probably can no longer feed its populous without importation. Its banking system is a disaster waiting to happen, where 40% of its loans are non performing and are granted without consideration to financial analysis or project planning. This has resulted in the duplication of a huge amount of industry that can not operate profitably, and therefore, must continually borrow their operating capital to remain in operation.
Further more, their infrastructure is one of the most energy inefficient on the planet. Consuming almost twice the amount of energy per dollar/renminbi as comparable US industry. At least 5% of China’s power plants are usually shut down for lack of fuel, and outages of refined petroleum products continually plague every city in China.
China is burning its candle from both ends, and when it goes down it will make the Asian Contagion look like a bank over draft.
The Lame Stream Media, however, has been very good at convincing people that China is the epitome and future of modern civilization. Surely, the Globalist that own the Media couldn’t be investing in China - now could they?
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2624 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 12:29 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
It take an absolutely BRILLIANT person to pull money out of an FDIC seized bank only to go deposit it at Wamu
Good point Short...I hadn't thought of the other banks not having the cash in the vault & have to wait for the FDIC check to clear. That is NOT a pretty picture! _________________ Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.
The number of new mortgages approved by the major banks fell another 23% in June to a new record low.
The British Bankers' Association (BBA) said its members approved just 21,118 new home loans in June, down from 27,499 in May.
The figures were also 67% lower than in June last year.
The collapse in sales and fall in house prices has been caused by the mortgage drought, which was triggered by the credit crunch in the banking system.
Soon most of the mortgages being approved could be on repossessed properties. The banks still have an incentive to lend then!
I have seen several apartment developments completed in the last couple of months, all stand empty. Earlier this week I saw a whole neighbourhood lying silent during the day, several suburban streets interrupted in the process of being landscaped, rows of empty newly completed buildings with For Sale signs in the windows and some apparently abandoned while the bricks were still being laid at ground level. Who is going to buy an apartment in an empty building, in one of several rows of empty buildings, with the one next door and several beside it just chest-high shells? The banks will lose billions of pounds once the builders carrying the debt collapse. As they will when they find that some of those loans have no asset, nothing with any residual value except a plot of land with planning permission backing them. _________________ "The American people are watching the numbers climb higher and higher at the pump and they're waiting to see what the Congress will do." - George W Bush
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