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Peakoil.com :: View topic - It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
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It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out
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smiley
Fission
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Location: Europe

PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 4:19 pm    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

graeme wrote:
Quote:
Then there's Colorado oil shale - also containing at least 1.5 trillion barrels of reserves - that becomes economically viable at about $100.


This is funny. If you look at publications from around 2001/2002 they will tell you that shale would be viable at $40.

Thing is to extract shale you need water and gas. And these things rise in tango with the oil price.

Bet that in 5 years we will read that it will become viable at $300 a barrel.

Ever heard of Zeno's paradox?
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kublikhan
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 5:03 pm    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Dreamtwister wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
If you have cheap energy inputs

That's a pretty big "if". Where exactly are you finding these cheap energy inputs?
Yeah, if I could pump 9 bpd of oil at a 98% water cut for and sell it at a 600% markup, I'd be laughing. The problem is that just does not happen in the real world. I would be surprised if these stripper wells were operating at a profit at all.
Indeed it is happening in the real world, at a profit. These wells were turned on again back in 2004 when oil was only $40:
Quote:
long-marginal ''stripper wells'' are pumping again.
It costs him roughly $20 to extract a barrel of oil from under the ground, he figures. So the price has to be enough above that to make it pay; $38 will do that, nicely, although he does not pocket the full amount.
Fast-rising prices have sharply heightened the appeal of such marginal wells, said Charles R. Matthews, one of the three members of the elected Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates mining and mineral rights. He said that stripper wells contribute $1 billion a year to the Texas economy and represent ''a particularly reliable source of energy for America.''
A Trickle Makes an Oil man

Quote:
price increases also boost business in 29 states with smaller and older depleted wells, known as stripper wells.
Kansas, which ranks eighth among oil-producing states, got an extra $800,000 in oil-related taxes for 2004 and estimates the 2005 budget will have an additional $2.4 million if prices stay high.
Louisiana is banking on an additional $109 million in its coffers for fiscal 2005.
Oklahoma figures the Sooner State will have an additional $28 million for 2005.
Texas, the largest U.S. oil producer, has collected $32 million more in oil-production taxes than last year at this time.
Oil Rich States Energy Windfall

These wells are turning back on again now, when oil is $110:
Quote:
grease-caked drilling crew scrambles to repair and expand one of the dozens of aging oil wells that dot the landscape of this small, hillside city about 30 miles south of Los Angeles.
With oil prices at $110 a barrel, producers nationwide are suddenly taking a second look at decades-old wells that were considered tapped out and unprofitable when oil sold for one-fifth the price or less. Independent producers and major conglomerates alike are reinvesting millions in these mature wells, using expensive new technology and drilling techniques to eke every last drop out of fields long past their prime.
New Life for Mature Fields
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Keith_McClary
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 1:35 am    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

kublikhan wrote:
Indeed it is happening in the real world, at a profit. These wells were turned on again back in 2004 when oil was only $40:
Quote:
long-marginal ''stripper wells'' are pumping again.
It costs him roughly $20 to extract a barrel of oil from under the ground, he figures. So the price has to be enough above that to make it pay; $38 will do that, nicely, although he does not pocket the full amount.
Fast-rising prices have sharply heightened the appeal of such marginal wells, said Charles R. Matthews, one of the three members of the elected Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates mining and mineral rights. He said that stripper wells contribute $1 billion a year to the Texas economy and represent ''a particularly reliable source of energy for America.''
A Trickle Makes an Oil man

Quote:
price increases also boost business in 29 states with smaller and older depleted wells, known as stripper wells.
Kansas, which ranks eighth among oil-producing states, got an extra $800,000 in oil-related taxes for 2004 and estimates the 2005 budget will have an additional $2.4 million if prices stay high.
Louisiana is banking on an additional $109 million in its coffers for fiscal 2005.
Oklahoma figures the Sooner State will have an additional $28 million for 2005.
Texas, the largest U.S. oil producer, has collected $32 million more in oil-production taxes than last year at this time.
Oil Rich States Energy Windfall

These wells are turning back on again now, when oil is $110:
Quote:
grease-caked drilling crew scrambles to repair and expand one of the dozens of aging oil wells that dot the landscape of this small, hillside city about 30 miles south of Los Angeles.
With oil prices at $110 a barrel, producers nationwide are suddenly taking a second look at decades-old wells that were considered tapped out and unprofitable when oil sold for one-fifth the price or less. Independent producers and major conglomerates alike are reinvesting millions in these mature wells, using expensive new technology and drilling techniques to eke every last drop out of fields long past their prime.
New Life for Mature Fields

What % of world production does this amount to? (I suspect miniscule)
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kublikhan
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 3:34 am    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Keith_McClary wrote:
What % of world production does this amount to? (I suspect miniscule)
If by miniscule, you mean equal to the amount of oil we import from Saudi Arabia every day, then yes, it is miniscule.
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Tanada
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 5:45 am    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

kublikhan wrote:


These wells are turning back on again now, when oil is $110:
Quote:
grease-caked drilling crew scrambles to repair and expand one of the dozens of aging oil wells that dot the landscape of this small, hillside city about 30 miles south of Los Angeles.
With oil prices at $110 a barrel, producers nationwide are suddenly taking a second look at decades-old wells that were considered tapped out and unprofitable when oil sold for one-fifth the price or less. Independent producers and major conglomerates alike are reinvesting millions in these mature wells, using expensive new technology and drilling techniques to eke every last drop out of fields long past their prime.
New Life for Mature Fields


The last quote in the article cracks me up, a woman with a 2 million dollar home pines for a free lunch!
Quote:
Ten years later, he has added bigger tanks because of the growing profit. An oil rig shows up outside her door at least once a month to do maintenance on the well and once a small fire started on the site. She also worries about fumes that come out of a tall, rust-colored smokestack.

"It's a big eyesore and it devalues our home. I hate it," she said. "I just wish I had a pipeline to it to my car."

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TheDude
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 9:09 am    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Tanada wrote:
kublikhan wrote:
New Life for Mature Fields


The last quote in the article cracks me up, a woman with a 2 million dollar home pines for a free lunch!
Quote:
Ten years later, he has added bigger tanks because of the growing profit. An oil rig shows up outside her door at least once a month to do maintenance on the well and once a small fire started on the site. She also worries about fumes that come out of a tall, rust-colored smokestack.

"It's a big eyesore and it devalues our home. I hate it," she said. "I just wish I had a pipeline to it to my car."


Don't we all, honey! Bet the neighborhood's really going down the drain like she says though.

Pipeline to your car...maybe we could have a thread on homebrew refining, or is that just patently absurd?

CA's production ain't showing any overall increase yet. Loses a few hundred BO a year.
Quote:

In central Wyoming, companies are using carbon dioxide injections to coax more black stuff out of declining oil fields and in Oklahoma, state lawmakers agreed to ban the practice of plugging lower-producing wells, so producers could drain every last drop.

"They are now producing one, two, five barrels a day," said Steven Agee, chairman of the state's Energy Resources Board. "Five a day doesn't seem like a lot, but ... that's 150 barrels a month times $100 and you're looking at $15,000 a month for a well."


5 bpd vs. how much energy to create that CO2, transport it, inject it?
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shortonoil
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 9:35 am    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

smiley said:

Quote:
This is funny. If you look at publications from around 2001/2002 they will tell you that shale would be viable at $40.

Thing is to extract shale you need water and gas. And these things rise in tango with the oil price.

Bet that in 5 years we will read that it will become viable at $300 a barrel.

Ever heard of Zeno's paradox?


Ever heard of thermodynamics!

Most of these Texas strippers were shut in at 99% water cuts. Here are some simple back of the envelope calculations.

1 cu-ft of crude = 1,084,700 BTU

pressurizing runs at least 6000 psi on these TX wells.

Enthalpy = pV = 144(6000) x 1 cu ft
99% water cut = 100 cu-ft water per cu-ft crude

Energy input to pressurize these wells 993,000 BTU per cu-ft crude

Transport, refining................ 130,160 BTU per cu-ft

Total energy input 1,123,160 BTU
Total energy output 1,084,700 BTU

Get real, these wells aren’t going to be producing after peak, nor are a lot of other stripper wells in the world!
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smiley
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 4:25 pm    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Quote:
Ever heard of thermodynamics!


yeah..................... and ?????

The connection between the uneconomics of Colorado shale and the thermodynamics of Texan stripper wells escapes me.

(other than that both are pretty bad news for mankind in general).
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KillTheHumans
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:06 pm    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

shortonoil wrote:


Ever heard of thermodynamics!


YES!! But no one around here seems to know how to apply the rules correctly ( thermodynamic rules applied into economics anyone? ) so those of us who know something about it stopped talking about them.

shortonoil wrote:


Get real, these wells aren’t going to be producing after peak, nor are a lot of other stripper wells in the world!


You mean, except for hundreds of thousands which actually ARE being produced, after the 1979 peak....after the 2005 peak...and are still producing even during the NEWEST peak, right?

You guys and your absolute statements.....
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KillTheHumans
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:08 pm    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

smiley wrote:
Quote:
Ever heard of thermodynamics!


yeah..................... and ?????

The connection between the uneconomics of Colorado shale and the thermodynamics of Texan stripper wells escapes me.



Thats because you actually engaged your brain for a nano-second...that is generally frowned on heavily around here.
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Keith_McClary
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:23 am    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

kublikhan wrote:
Keith_McClary wrote:
What % of world production does this amount to? (I suspect miniscule)
If by miniscule, you mean equal to the amount of oil we import from Saudi Arabia every day, then yes, it is miniscule.
Would you mind quoting a percentage of world production or #barrels production number?

Note: there is a difference between hypothetical "resources" in the ground and production that you can put in your gas tank.

(EDIT) The largest number you quote is a measly $1 BILLION - that is 3 HOURS world consumption.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:44 am    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Keith_McClary wrote:
Would you mind quoting a percentage of world production or #barrels production number?
Sure. The US produces about 1.2 million barrels of oil a day from stripper wells. That is about 20% of US domestic oil production. That is up from around 860,000 barrels a day in 2006(a 40% increase in 2 years).
Stripper Wells
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 1:36 am    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

kublikhan wrote:
Keith_McClary wrote:
Would you mind quoting a percentage of world production or #barrels production number?
Sure. The US produces about 1.2 million barrels of oil a day from stripper wells. That is about 20% of US domestic oil production. That is up from around 860,000 barrels a day in 2006(a 40% increase in 2 years).
Stripper Wells
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So, perhaps 4% of world consumption? Not bad - why do you need to conquer Iraq and Iran then?
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 1:58 am    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Isn't it more like 1.5%???
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:48 am    Post subject: Re: It’s a myth that the world’s oil is running out Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Keith_McClary wrote:
So, perhaps 4% of world consumption? Not bad - why do you need to conquer Iraq and Iran then?
My entire point was as the price of oil goes up, the incentive to find more oil goes up. I think I have demonstrated that to be true. I really don't want to get side tracked into discussing the Iraq/Iran war.
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