We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2568 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 6:25 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
That is, how world works [by Pavlovian conditioning.You cannot change it.
I disagree. Social cooperation beats competition in the long run. The trick is to form alliances with those who want to cooperate, while responding in kind to those who do not.
Some level of brutality might be needed in the second case, depending on how ruthless the non-cooperators are.
In the case at hand, those who invade and/or dismember other countries are not cooperating.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2568 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 6:34 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Exterminated nations will find no use of compensations. Few survivors will hardly benefit of these as well (eg, they will assume Western life standards with new found money and soon end up with diabetics).
What the survivors will do with compensation is not for us to predict. How could we know ?
Quote:
So what kind of methods would you propose?
To be more precise, who should get a land to farm?
The white landowners could be expropriated in orderly fashion in some proportion, allowing them to keep sufficient land in ownership in order to run a business. They could be allowed to compete freely for any and all management positions related to their former farms. The expropriated land could be redistributed equally to landless peasants, who could be encouraged to form free associations. This could be done gradually over a period of at least 10-15 years, in order to avoid massive social dislocation.
Any violence against farms or their owners could be treated as a serious crime and punished accordingly.
Notice that expropriation need not be done by physical force. It could be done through progressive taxation indexed by the amount of land -- so that owning land over a certain area would become unprofitable. The tax money could be used to alleviate the poverty of the landless, by supplying them with subsidized food and jobs in basic infrastructure building. This would force owners to sell excess land either to the state (who could buy it using the tax money ) or directly to the population.
Notice that I am not proposing a socialist reorganization of the economy, but only land redistribution within a market system. No revolutions please, land reform is enough.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2568 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 12:00 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
Cid_Yama wrote:
Currently, Russia is building a port for the Black Sea Fleet in Tartus, Syria, but still need access to the Black Sea and the Mediteranean. Abkhazia will be like a Soviet satellite state. Which will be fine to the leaders of Abkahazia, who would not be able to remain in power otherwise. It is already obvious this is of strategic importance to Russia and the western world can do nothing about it without igniting a world war.
They can do plenty about it, and they are. Abkhazia could be easily transformed into a civil war zone to keep Russia busy for the next 20 years. Read between the lines.
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 1:56 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
That is, how world works [by Pavlovian conditioning.You cannot change it.
I disagree. Social cooperation beats competition in the long run. The trick is to form alliances with those who want to cooperate, while responding in kind to those who do not.
That approach may be good, if one want to deal with small, local conflicts.
Unfortunately, the biggest offenders at the moment are huge entities (in terms of land and/or population and/or military power).
So how would you tackle China, Russia, US or may be India?
The funniest part is that these nations are tending to cooperate between themselves to secure dismembering of domestic democratic structures. They are converting into empires in front of your eyes.
I also disagree with view that in long run social cooperation beats competition.
That goes until certain scale only. Above this scale competition have always beaten cooperation through history of humanity.
There was always multipolar power structure and fierce competition between sovereign nations or alliances of nations.
Quote:
Some level of brutality might be needed in the second case, depending on how ruthless the non-cooperators are.
Non-cooperators are well armed and can annihilate most of world if facing severe threats from outside.
Do you suggest to go to war with US over Iraq, go to war with Russia over Chechens or Abkhazia, Go to war with China over Tibet or go to war with US & most EU over Kosovo?
If so, then you are essentially advocating general nuclear solution.
Quote:
In the case at hand, those who invade and/or dismember other countries are not cooperating.
Btu
They do.
World is already divided and major powers are building influence zones.
Human rights and democracy (or lack of these in particular place) are often excuses to launch new wars...
Wake up.
You are entering brave new world right now.
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 872 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 2:03 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
Abkhazia could be easily transformed into a civil war zone to keep Russia busy for the next 20 years.
You obviously have no idea how big Abkhazia is. It might keep Russia busy for a week on the outside if Georgia even had a glimmer of hope of taking it over, which they don't. It might just take an afternoon.
You people really have to research your position before posting. _________________ In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
- George Orwell
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 2:12 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
Cid_Yama wrote:
Currently, Russia is building a port for the Black Sea Fleet in Tartus, Syria, but still need access to the Black Sea and the Mediteranean. Abkhazia will be like a Soviet satellite state. Which will be fine to the leaders of Abkahazia, who would not be able to remain in power otherwise. It is already obvious this is of strategic importance to Russia and the western world can do nothing about it without igniting a world war.
They can do plenty about it, and they are. Abkhazia could be easily transformed into a civil war zone to keep Russia busy for the next 20 years. Read between the lines.
Btu
Once substantial proportion of West supporting male population of Georgia is dead, level of violence would subside.
Russia's yesmen would assume rule.
That was already done in Chechnya and worked.
In retaliation Russia could further destabilize situation in Iraq, Afghanistan etc and reduce fuel supplies to West (China will only be happy to buy more FF, btw).
West cannot afford that, so they will do nothing (OK they will sell some obsolete weaponry to Georgia at discount rate, and that's about it).
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 2:16 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
Cid_Yama wrote:
Abkhazia could be easily transformed into a civil war zone to keep Russia busy for the next 20 years.
You obviously have no idea how big Abkhazia is. It might keep Russia busy for a week on the outside if Georgia even had a glimmer of hope of taking it over, which they don't. It might just take an afternoon.
You people really have to research your position before posting.
I think, he have meant stirring Russian - Georgian war with West arming Georgia.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2568 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 9:04 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
Cid_Yama wrote:
You obviously have no idea how big Abkhazia is. It might keep Russia busy for a week on the outside if Georgia even had a glimmer of hope of taking it over, which they don't. It might just take an afternoon.
You people really have to research your position before posting.
Actually Abkhazia is part of of a string of Muslim entities to the south of Russia, who have certain ambitions. Obviously you have no idea what you are talking about, and need to research your position before posting.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2568 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 9:16 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Unfortunately, the biggest offenders at the moment are huge entities (in terms of land and/or population and/or military power).
The EU is a huge entity formed though alliance building, so obviously that approach works on any scale.
Quote:
The funniest part is that these nations are tending to cooperate between themselves to secure dismembering of domestic democratic structures. They are converting into empires in front of your eyes.
They are cooperating only against Muslim nations, another group which could form a vast alliance. One reason why they are so afraid of that group. Remember the injunction:
He who picks up the sword will die by the sword.
Aggressors are not popular, as you can check for yourself.
Quote:
That goes until certain scale only. Above this scale competition have always beaten cooperation through history of humanity. There was always multipolar power structure and fierce competition between sovereign nations or alliances of nations.
That's not supported by game theory. What matters is the scale on which one can organize, which has increased steadily due to new technology. Most empires have feet of clay. They tend not to work that well, as the British can remind you.
Quote:
Non-cooperators are well armed and can annihilate most of world if facing severe threats from outside.
So can cooperators. The EU could build a formidable army if so inclined. We are seeing similar cooperation starting in Latin America.
Quote:
Do you suggest to go to war with US over Iraq, go to war with Russia over Chechens or Abkhazia, Go to war with China over Tibet or go to war with US & most EU over Kosovo?
No, I suggest working to gradually checkmate those who believe in such actions, through multilateral political and military arrangements.
Quote:
You are entering brave new world right now.
Rejection of cynicism doesn't equate with being naive.
Btu _________________ only the paranoid survive
Last edited by btu2012 on Sun May 11, 2008 9:29 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2568 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 9:22 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
That was already done in Chechnya and worked.
Russia paid a huge price for Chechnia in alienating the entire Muslim world. It's called Karma.
Quote:
In retaliation Russia could further destabilize situation in Iraq, Afghanistan etc and reduce fuel supplies to West (China will only be happy to buy more FF, btw).
Certainly. But you forget how many people, nations and supranational organizations are deeply suspicious of and hostile to Russia, due to the rampant criminality displayed by that nation for the past 300 years. That Karma will only get worse through the actions you describe.
Quote:
West cannot afford that, so they will do nothing (OK they will sell some obsolete weaponry to Georgia at discount rate, and that's about it).
The West can simply encourage Georgia in doing what Georgia wants, namely leave the Russian sphere of influence and join an alliance of nations guaranteeing its security.
Give it up EU. Russia's Karma is long overdue, and the Russians will have to pay one way or another. The miserable daughter of Babylon will pay the price for the blood of its victims.
Those Russians who don't suffer from their leaders' narcissistic personality disorder understand that very well.
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 12:06 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Unfortunately, the biggest offenders at the moment are huge entities (in terms of land and/or population and/or military power).
The EU is a huge entity formed though alliance building, so obviously that approach works on any scale.
And this huge entity (or rather its most important pillars) is yet another offender, as an example of Kosovo shows.
In any case this approach works on EU scale and to a certain degree only and not on any scale (and is very unlikely to last long...).
Roman Empire was also working on comparable scale.
Quote:
They [major powers - EU] are cooperating only against Muslim nations, another group which could form a vast alliance. One reason why they are so afraid of that group.
Essentially you are suggesting formation of vast alliances, which would contend each other later.
Quote:
That's not supported by game theory. What matters is the scale on which one can organize, which has increased steadily due to new technology. Most empires have feet of clay. They tend not to work that well, as the British can remind you.
Technology will soon go into retreat due to lack of affordability related to resources depletion etc.
The only question is how much of modern tech we can save for centuries to come.
Globalization is on its last leg, btw.
Anyway, why did you mention British Empire, not Egyptian or Roman one?
Quote:
So can cooperators. The EU could build a formidable army if so inclined. We are seeing similar cooperation starting in Latin America.
Could is a keyword here.
Quote:
No, I suggest working to gradually checkmate those who believe in such actions, through multilateral political and military arrangements.
So you will have to checkmate China for Tibet,
US for Iraq,
US & EU for Kosovo,
Russia for Chechnya & Georgia/Abkhazia.
Btw,
Who will proceed with such a huge checkmating task?
All major players on the world are in need of checkmating.
Last edited by EnergyUnlimited on Sun May 11, 2008 12:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 12:17 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
Russia paid a huge price for Chechnia in alienating the entire Muslim world. It's called Karma.
Certainly Iranians are not concerned about this Karma.
BTW, it is US, not Russia, who is considered to be an archenemy of Muslim world.
Quote:
Certainly. But you forget how many people, nations and supranational organizations are deeply suspicious of and hostile to Russia, due to the rampant criminality displayed by that nation for the past 300 years. That Karma will only get worse through the actions you describe.
And they still have to buy Russian gas & oil and to please whoever rules Kremlin.
How sad...
Quote:
The West can simply encourage Georgia in doing what Georgia wants, namely leave the Russian sphere of influence and join an alliance of nations guaranteeing its security.
And what, if Georgia ceased to exist before joining NATO?
Do you really believe that US or Europe will wish to die for Georgia and turn into radioactive glass (together with Russia).
Quote:
Give it up EU. Russia's Karma is long overdue, and the Russians will have to pay one way or another. The miserable daughter of Babylon will pay the price for the blood of its victims.
I don't see any evidence of that coming.
Quote:
Those Russians who don't suffer from their leaders' narcissistic personality disorder understand that very well.
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 872 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 1:05 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
Cid_Yama wrote:
You obviously have no idea how big Abkhazia is. It might keep Russia busy for a week on the outside if Georgia even had a glimmer of hope of taking it over, which they don't. It might just take an afternoon.
You people really have to research your position before posting.
Actually Abkhazia is part of of a string of Muslim entities to the south of Russia, who have certain ambitions. Obviously you have no idea what you are talking about, and need to research your position before posting.
Btu
You really don't have a clue, do you?
Abkhazia is situated on the Eastern Bank of the Black Sea, bordering to the West with Russia on the Psou River and to the East with Georgia on the Ingur River. On the North the Grand Caucasian Range.
Republic of Abkhazia: territory 8700 km2.
Capital City: Sukhum (Akua in Abkhaz)population: 75 000.
Total population: 340.000 people.
If you did your research before posting, you wouldn't come off sounding so stupid. _________________ In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
- George Orwell
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2568 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 2:26 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
And this huge entity (or rather its most important pillars) is yet another offender, as an example of Kosovo shows.
I think that there is a graduation here, in that the EU is by and large better behaved than the US which in turn is by and large better behaved than Russia. At least this estimation seems to hold for the past 50 years.
The US has been badly behaved in Latin America, but even there its behavior has been more restrained than that of Russia in Eastern Europe or in its near abroad.
Quote:
In any case this approach works on EU scale and to a certain degree only and not on any scale (and is very unlikely to last long...).
I don't think that the future is knowable.
Quote:
Essentially you are suggesting formation of vast alliances, which would contend each other later.
Defense alliances seem to be necessary in an era of crisis. At least if we are going to prevent the Hobbesian world which you and others see coming.
Quote:
Technology will soon go into retreat due to lack of affordability related to resources depletion etc.
The only question is how much of modern tech we can save for centuries to come.Globalization is on its last leg, btw.
Again we do not know the future. Globalization in the sense of easy trade is not necessary for what I discuss. Communications are key, and they are likely to survive.
Quote:
Anyway, why did you mention British Empire, not Egyptian or Roman one?
It's more recent thus a better reference point.
Quote:
Could is a keyword here.
And will, if the necessity arises.
Quote:
So you will have to checkmate China for Tibet,
US for Iraq, US & EU for Kosovo, Russia for Chechnya & Georgia/Abkhazia.
Not for these reasons only. Yes, you will have to work towards checkmating all aggressors and all would be masters of the world.
The EU is the best behaved of all these and one of the potential cooperators. Russia's behavior is hopeless. The US could change if its population wakes up. China is a wild card.
Quote:
Who will proceed with such a huge checkmating task? All major players on the world are in need of checkmating.
Those who prefer cooperation. Not all major players need checkmating. Some can change (the EU, US). Others cannot or will not (Russia).
Btu _________________ only the paranoid survive
Last edited by btu2012 on Sun May 11, 2008 2:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
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) or directly to the population.
