Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 2:39 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Certainly Iranians are not concerned about this Karma.
Karma operates whether one is concerned about it or not. It's a law of (human) nature.
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BTW, it is US, not Russia, who is considered to be an archenemy of Muslim world.
Russia isn't a friend either, and the Muslims know that. Neither is China.
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And they still have to buy Russian gas & oil and to please whoever rules Kremlin. How sad...
This only makes their dislike of Russia worse.
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And what, if Georgia ceased to exist before joining NATO? Do you really believe that US or Europe will wish to die for Georgia and turn into radioactive glass (together with Russia).
Then Russia will have yet another insurgency on its hand, which the West will do its best to support and encourage.
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I don't see any evidence of that coming.
It comes in the quiet of the night, when the perpetrators are relaxed.
Behold, I come like a thief...
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You won't find many of these...
I know a few personally. They are certainly a minority in their country at the present moment. Which only confirms that the time of karmic rebalancing is very close for Russia.
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 12:57 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
I think that there is a graduation here, in that the EU is by and large better behaved than the US which in turn is by and large better behaved than Russia. At least this estimation seems to hold for the past 50 years.
At present graduation from best to worst would be:
1. EU (best) NB. You should rather talk about separate nations, not lose conglomerate.
2. Russia.
3. US (worst)
Above graduation is based on body counts delivered by discussed entities during last 25 years.
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The US has been badly behaved in Latin America, but even there its behavior has been more restrained than that of Russia in Eastern Europe or in its near abroad.
...and even more badly in Viet Nam or Cambodia (they supported Pol Pot, albeit it was a while ago).
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I don't think that the future is knowable.
...then why you are assuming cooperation on any scale if future is not knowable?
My remarks are based on existing record through entire history up to date.
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Defense alliances seem to be necessary in an era of crisis. At least if we are going to prevent the Hobbesian world which you and others see coming.
...but if things go wrong in your scenario, eg total war will break out between vast alliances, then we will end up back in Stone Age.
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Again we do not know the future. Globalization in the sense of easy trade is not necessary for what I discuss. Communications are key, and they are likely to survive.
I perceive communication as value added thing.
If global trade of physical items died out, there won't be so much need for communication either and networks allowing communication will end up substantially trimmed down.
Of course communication will help in diplomacy etc, but it will be substantially scaled down (forget ideas of i-phone for everyone etc).
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Anyway, why did you mention British Empire, not Egyptian or Roman one?
It's more recent thus a better reference point.
American Empire is even more recent.
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And will, if the necessity arises.
You don't know the future...
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Yes, you will have to work towards checkmating all aggressors and all would be masters of the world.
The EU is the best behaved of all these and one of the potential cooperators. Russia's behavior is hopeless. The US could change if its population wakes up. China is a wild card.
Disagree.
EU is discoherent entity and many of member states are US puppets at the moment.
US is hopeless (largest body counts worldwide perpetrated within last 25 years).
Russia tries to reestablish influence zone and is on the way to become major adversary of US/EU.
China has the worst internal human rights record between major nations in last 50 years.
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Not all major players need checkmating. Some can change (the EU, US). Others cannot or will not (Russia).
Anyone and everything can change...
EU can dissipate...
US can convert itself into latyfundial empire relaying on Mexican and Latin American slave labor...
Russia can rebuild its own empire base on surrounding -stans.
...or may be they will all cross nuke each other and reverse to Stone Age.
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 1:17 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
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BTW, it is US, not Russia, who is considered to be an archenemy of Muslim world.
Russia isn't a friend either, and the Muslims know that. Neither is China.
Poor Muslims...
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And they still have to buy Russian gas & oil and to please whoever rules Kremlin. How sad...
This only makes their dislike of Russia worse.
That don't change much...
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Then Russia will have yet another insurgency on its hand, which the West will do its best to support and encourage.
Do you foresee Chechen future for Georgia?
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I know a few personally. They are certainly a minority in their country at the present moment. Which only confirms that the time of karmic rebalancing is very close for Russia.
Do you suggest that they will end up in Gulag soon, to address this karmic rebalancing?
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 5:18 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
At present graduation from best to worst would be:
1. EU (best) NB. You should rather talk about separate nations, not lose conglomerate.
2. Russia.
3. US (worst)
If you mean the Bush years then you might have a point. If you look at the history of the past 50 years (as I mentioned) then Russia comes very last.
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Above graduation is based on body counts delivered by discussed entities during last 25 years.
You don't seem to count the dead in Afghanistan and those due to repression within the SU and the Eastern Block, not to mention the proxy wars in Nicaragua etc.
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...then why you are assuming cooperation on any scale if future is not knowable?
I am not assuming it, I only pointed out that it is possible.
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...but if things go wrong in your scenario, eg total war will break out between vast alliances, then we will end up back in Stone Age.
True.
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American Empire is even more recent.
The US is not an empire, but a mercantilist hegemon.
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EU is discoherent entity and many of member states are US puppets at the moment.
Like Poland
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Russia tries to reestablish influence zone and is on the way to become major adversary of US/EU.
China has the worst internal human rights record between major nations in last 50 years.
True on both counts, but does not affect my argument. The Russian "Federation" is a profoundly corrupt empire with a smattering of modern appearance added for comfort. They wouldn't know what cooperation was if it hit them on the head. China isn't free so we don't know what it might do if it ever becomes so.
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You don't know the future.
Neither do you. But certain things are more likely than others, based on evidence. Russia is not what you wish it to be.
Btu _________________ only the paranoid survive
Last edited by btu2012 on Mon May 12, 2008 5:23 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 5:20 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Do you suggest that they will end up in Gulag soon, to address this karmic rebalancing?
No, the many nations victimized by Russia during the past 300 years will work to make sure that Russia is isolated and weakened. As they already do.
Karma simply means that victims never forget, one doesn't need mystical explanations to understand this simple concept.
There is no escaping this, EU. Panslavism won't save them, neither will nuclear weapons. The latter will only protect them from invasion, which is fair.
They can't escape the consequences of their crimes, and neither will others.
Let them colonize the Arctic. They'll need a place to hide.
Russia is a like a barely educated peasant full of envy and inferiority, and horrified that others can see trough its pretense. It keeps making monkey noises to show off how supposedly strong it is, something which everybody interprets as an attempt to cover its weakness. Russia's behavior is like that in almost every respect, for example the
pathetic pretense that it is a "country of culture", which is meant to cover the crass lack of refinement and elementary manners of most of its people. The jig has been up for a long time, but they keep hoping against any reason that somehow they can still fool somebody.
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 2:01 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
No, the many nations victimized by Russia during the past 300 years will work to make sure that Russia is isolated and weakened. As they already do.
Most of these nations are obscure entities inhabiting Caucasian areas and central Asia.
They was always battered either by Russians or by Turks or by Poles or by Tatars, Mongols etc.
I think that it is their main purpose - to be battered and abused by someone.
If they are left alone, they will quickly get corrupted to the extreme and invite one of major powers in neighborhood to support threatened corrupt ruling class at expense of surrendering large chunks of sovereignty.
That was going on for last 500 years at least.
So Russians were enslaving Cossacks, Poles were enslaving Cossacks, Turks were enslaving Cossacks.
Part of Cossacks were serving under Polish, part under Turk, part under Russian command.
When Poland/Russia/Turkey had any territorial quarrel over some land there... well... Cossacks were ending up on both sides of frontline killing each other in the name of Kings/Tsars/Sultans who were far away and didn't care really.
Such a sad life of these small nations, totally corrupt and conflicted between themselves and with everyone around.
That is their Karma.
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Karma simply means that victims never forget, one doesn't need mystical explanations to understand this simple concept.
Works well between Poland and Germany - one of countless reasons for me to believe that united Europe is a farce born out of full belly environment.
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There is no escaping this, EU. Panslavism won't save them, neither will nuclear weapons. The latter will only protect them from invasion, which is fair.
My view is that democratic order worldwide will soon collapse, few power centers with respecting influence zones will form and Russia is one of such power centers.
After some decades or century or two all these new born empires will deteriorate into permanent conflicted mess, very much like it used to be in the past.
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They can't escape the consequences of their crimes, and neither will others.
US is escaping until now, Chinese are escaping, so why Russians couldn't?
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Russia's behavior is like that in almost every respect, for example the
pathetic pretense that it is a "country of culture", which is meant to cover the crass lack of refinement and elementary manners of most of its people.
I am not aware of Russia being a country of culture.
They have rich history though.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 3:12 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Most of these nations are obscure entities inhabiting Caucasian areas and central Asia. They was always battered either by Russians or by Turks or by Poles or by Tatars, Mongols etc. I think that it is their main purpose - to be battered and abused by someone. If they are left alone, they will quickly get corrupted to the extreme and invite one of major powers in neighborhood to support threatened corrupt ruling class at expense of surrendering large chunks of sovereignty. That was going on for last 500 years at least. So Russians were enslaving Cossacks, Poles were enslaving Cossacks, Turks were enslaving Cossacks.
Part of Cossacks were serving under Polish, part under Turk, part under Russian command. [...]
Such a sad life of these small nations, totally corrupt and conflicted between themselves and with everyone around. That is their Karma.
Does Georgia count among these "obscure entities" which can't govern itself and thus deserves to be enslaved ? I would guess Belarus, Ukraine also ? Or only non-slavic peoples fit that bill ? Kazahstan, Azerbaijan ... ?
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Works well between Poland and Germany - one of countless reasons for me to believe that united Europe is a farce born out of full belly environment.
Well, according to some Germans those Poles are an obscure nation who always had some incompetent and corrupt regime, fighting on whichever side of conflicts in the unwashed East. That is their Karma.
But in all seriousness the Germans made an honest effort to learn from their mistakes, which clearly cannot be said about Russia.
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US is escaping until now, Chinese are escaping, so why Russians couldn't?
It only works for a while. The US, China will not escape their Karma either. Unless they learn something from their history.
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I am not aware of Russia being a country of culture.
My point exactly. And you must be aware of how much they pretend to be cultured.
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:42 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
Does Georgia count among these "obscure entities" which can't govern itself and thus deserves to be enslaved ? I would guess Belarus, Ukraine also ? Or only non-slavic peoples fit that bill ? Kazahstan, Azerbaijan ... ?
Georgia would qualify as such (all, what they delivered to world and what undoubtfully will be remembered for centuries to come was Josef Stalin).
Abkhasia was not a part of Georgia in the past, so Georgian claim to this territory is plain usurpation.
Cid Yama gave you good reference about it, I think.
Ukraine was a Polish - Russian - Turkish battlefield through last 700 years or so.
Vast flatlands, not much on the way so horsemen can gain proper speed before clashing in the battle...
Bielarus - particularly retarded province of Russia. No history of independence in any case. Peaceful peoples in general.
Slavic nation in any case.
Azerbaijan - domain of Turkey and Iran.
Kazakhstan - obscure nation.
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Only non-slavic peoples fit that bill?
No.
Armenia and Afghans are notable exceptions.
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Well, according to some Germans those Poles are an obscure nation who always had some incompetent and corrupt regime, fighting on whichever side of conflicts in the unwashed East. That is their Karma.
But in all seriousness the Germans made an honest effort to learn from their mistakes, which clearly cannot be said about Russia.
Only because they were defeated with territorial loses canceling their gains from last 1000 years of wars with Poland.
Anyway, it takes few centuries of good behavior for such mistakes to be forgotten.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:28 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Abkhasia was not a part of Georgia in the past, so Georgian claim to this territory is plain usurpation.
The usurpers there are the Russians, and have been since the 1820's.
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Ukraine was a Polish - Russian - Turkish battlefield through last 700 years or so. Vast flatlands, not much on the way so horsemen can gain proper speed before clashing in the battle...
You forgot to mention the Ukrainians, the creators of Kievan Rus. They perhaps disappeared from that territory after the Mongol invasions to allow Poland, Turkey and Russia to have their fun wars ? Wait, they seem to have somehow reappeared recently. Darn that magic.
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Bielarus - particularly retarded province of Russia. No history of independence in any case. Peaceful peoples in general. Slavic nation in any case.
Again you forgot to mention that the Belarusian language isn't Russian. They've been first Polonized and then Rusified more recently. Used to be part of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth, and before that of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, so in any case not a "historic province" of Russia (Muskovy). Incorporated into the Russian Empire only after the partition of the P-L commonwealth ( 1772-1795) Historically much closer to Rutenian than Muskovite culture.
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Azerbaijan - domain of Turkey and Iran.
Kazakhstan - obscure nation.
Just like Poland -- domain of Germany and Russia, obscure nation in any case.
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Only because they were defeated with territorial loses canceling their gains from last 1000 years of wars with Poland. Anyway, it takes few centuries of good behavior for such mistakes to be forgotten.
Looks like Poland was defeated, divided etc but some Poles still think that Belorussia and Ukraine are insignificant non-nations.
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But not as an organized state.
Of course the Germans have an extremely interesting history as an organized state.
EU, it's so extraordinarily clear to anyone with a smattering of historical knowledge that the Russians are the great usurpers and imperialists of the East. Why defend the indefensible ?
You guys are so scared of the Germans that you would willingly polish Russia's apple ?
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:57 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
The usurpers there are the Russians, and have been since the 1820's.
False.
At the moment usurpers are Georgians.
Most of population of Abkhasia is supporting current separatism.
At the moment of collapse of SU Georgia did not have any rights to Abkhasia as well.
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You forgot to mention the Ukrainians, the creators of Kievan Rus. They perhaps disappeared from that territory after the Mongol invasions to allow Poland, Turkey and Russia to have their fun wars ? Wait, they seem to have somehow reappeared recently. Darn that magic.
I doubt there is much in common between founders of Kiev Rus and current Ukrainians.
Too much looting and raping was going on there for too many centuries for this to be true.
In any case Ukraine is in difficult situation.
As time pass it will probably end up incorporated into Russia.
It is easy these days for Russians to subdue Ukrainians.
It is enough to turn off gas tap
There is also huge Russian population in Eastern Ukraine (where most of their resources are).
I bet, these peoples are only waiting to join Russia.
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Again you forgot to mention that the Belarusian language isn't Russian. They've been first Polonized and then Rusified more recently. Used to be part of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth, and before that of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, so in any case not a "historic province" of Russia (Muskovy).
About correct.
You seem to accept that it was never an independent state.
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Incorporated into the Russian Empire only after the partition of the P-L commonwealth ( 1772-1795) Historically much closer to Rutenian than Muskovite culture.
There was too much democracy in P-L commonwealth.
Certainly it didn't help.
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Just like Poland -- domain of Germany and Russia, obscure nation in any case.
For last ~200 years that is the case.
Due to a silly policy beginning in 18th century Poland got what she deserved.
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Looks like Poland was defeated, divided etc but some Poles still think that Belorussia and Ukraine are insignificant non-nations.
Well, thats about the case.
Independent Ukraine or Belarus are novelty.
There were some nations there in the past, but never independent states.
I think they will soon come back to Russia, where they belong.
There is also some hope that Ukrainians from West Ukraine will form closer links with Poland, if they don't want to go back to Russia (they would prefer it as lesser evil - Russians were more firm on them through history)
BTW.
More recently Germans were also defeated, partitioned and had puppet governments installed.
Sadly, it didn't last long enough...
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Of course the Germans have an extremely interesting history as an organized state.
Yes they do, and so what?
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EU, it's so extraordinarily clear to anyone with a smattering of historical knowledge that the Russians are the great usurpers and imperialists of the East. Why defend the indefensible ?
You guys are so scared of the Germans that you would willingly polish Russia's apple ?
I view united Europe as a form of Fourth Reich, clumsy one but still.
Poland certainly does not belong there.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 1:48 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
At the moment usurpers are Georgians. Most of population of Abkhasia is supporting current separatism.
Of course the Georgians were ethnically cleansed there so Abkhazians are now the majority. There is a well known ICC case regarding that.
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At the moment of collapse of SU Georgia did not have any rights to Abkhasia as well.
Oh, my. Quit reading Pravda:
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The Abkhaz ASSR was an autonomous republic of the Soviet Union, within the Georgian SSR. It came into existence when the Abkhazian SSR was demoted to the status of Autonomous Republic in 1931.
The Russian Revolution of 1917 led to the creation of an independent Georgia (which included Abkhazia) in 1918. In 1921, the Bolshevik Red Army invaded Georgia and ended its short-lived independence. Abkhazia was made a Soviet republic with the ambiguous status of Union Republic associated with the Georgian SSR. In 1931, Stalin made it an autonomous republic within Soviet Georgia.
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The international organizations such as United Nations (28 Security Council Resolutions), EU, OSCE, NATO, WTO, Council of the European Union, CIS as well as most sovereign states recognize Abkhazia as an integral part of Georgia and support its territorial integrity according to the principles of the international law. However, the Abkhaz de-facto government considers Abkhazia a sovereign country, even though it is not recognized by any party in the world.
However, the Russian State Duma is urging to take into consideration the appeal made by the Abkhaz Republic of Abkhazia which calls for recognition of its independence, and the Russian state media has produced numerous materials in support of the unrecognized state.
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I doubt there is much in common between founders of Kiev Rus and current Ukrainians.
ROFL
You definitely watch too much Russian TV.
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I think they will soon come back to Russia, where they belong.
Maybe Poland will come back to Germany where it belongs.
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There is also some hope that Ukrainians from West Ukraine will form closer links with Poland, if they don't want to go back to Russia (they would prefer it as lesser evil - Russians were more firm on them through history)
Tell me about it
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Yes they do, and so what?
Well, organized states aren't necessarily something to admire.
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I view united Europe as a form of Fourth Reich, clumsy one but still. Poland certainly does not belong there.
Clumsy is sometimes better than ordnung. Maybe it was intentionally made that way ?
And were would dear Poland belong ? In Russia, together with the other backward province of Belarus ?
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:58 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
At the moment usurpers are Georgians. Most of population of Abkhasia is supporting current separatism.
Of course the Georgians were ethnically cleansed there so Abkhazians are now the majority. There is a well known ICC case regarding that.
But from where Georgians came to Abkhasia in the first place, before they were clensed?
Abkhasians are not Georgians.
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I doubt there is much in common between founders of Kiev Rus and current Ukrainians.
ROFL
You definitely watch too much Russian TV.
Polish TV agrees with Russian one on that account.
Do you really think that after two hundreds of years of Mongol direct rule (Zlota Orda) and then after raping and ransacking by all the neighbors for many centuries you will have the same nation in place?
Now they have more in common with Mongolians (and Russians, Poles and Turks and whoever more was raping there) then with original founders of Kiev Rus.
You are quite naive, if you believe otherwise.
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I think they will soon come back to Russia, where they belong.
Maybe Poland will come back to Germany where it belongs.
At the moment large parts of Germany belong to Poland.
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Tell me about it
Are you an Ukrainian?
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Well, organized states aren't necessarily something to admire.
Well, fortunately or not they are here to stay for foreseeable future.
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I view united Europe as a form of Fourth Reich, clumsy one but still. Poland certainly does not belong there.
Clumsy is sometimes better than ordnung. Maybe it was intentionally made that way ?
It is full belly product, so it is clumsy.
Once belly gets empty, Germans will try to make it less clumsy but sadly it is unlikely to the extreme to work and conglomerate will fall apart.
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And were would dear Poland belong ? In Russia, together with the other backward province of Belarus ?
Within last 1000 years good precedence for an independent Poland was made.
After all for more than 800 years it was independent and often quite powerful and for remaining time... well it was defeated but now recovered to some degree.
We shall see, what future will bring...
The same cannot be said about Ukraine.
Shortly after forming it was incorporated into Mongolia and then after fall of Zlota Orda it became a battlefield of Russia, Poland and Turkey for many centuries to come (including XX century - very recently).
So where is a case for her independence?
I don't see it.
In respect of Belarus, they never tried to be independent, so there no case for discussing that issue further.
They don't appear to me to be viable in long run.
Too dependent on Russia, no sea access, no significant natural resources etc.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 2:41 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Abkhasians are not Georgians.
And Georgians are not Abkhazians. You can read the history for yourself, it's rather long and complicated really. After you're done you tell me if you believe that
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Darn that magic. 
