How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 1:17 am Post subject: Next decade 'may see no global warming'
so that's that sorted.
Quote:
The Earth's temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade, as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase, scientists have predicted.
A new computer model developed by German researchers, reported in the journal Nature, suggests the cooling will counter greenhouse warming.
However, temperatures will again be rising quickly by about 2020, they say.
Other climate scientists have welcomed the research, saying it may help societies plan better for the future.
The key to the new prediction is the natural cycle of ocean temperatures called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which is closely related to the warm currents that bring heat from the tropics to the shores of Europe.
The cause of the oscillation is not well understood, but the cycle appears to come round about every 60 to 70 years.
Imagine the payoff of knowing with some certainty what the next 10 years hold in terms of temperature and precipitation
Professor Michael Schlesinger
It may partly explain why temperatures rose in the early years of the last century before beginning to cool in the 1940s
Joined: Jan 02, 2008 Posts: 399 Location: out dispatching ronan...
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 3:50 am Post subject: Re: Next decade 'may see no global warming'
People have to get over the idea that the problem with 'global warming' is hotter temperatures.
Climate change is a more accurate term.
Regardless of the world's average temperatures, we're going to see more extreme weather.
In my part of the world, it might be colder, but if it doesn't rain as the result of a historically unprecedented draught, what difference does the global average temperature mean?
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 4:02 am Post subject: Re: Next decade 'may see no global warming'
As the arctic melts and lots of methane will be released this is actually good news. We would have 10 years to power down, maybe power down due to PO and the the burning of fossil fuels might have been declined. I may be too optimistic.
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 8:20 am Post subject: Re: Next decade 'may see no global warming'
Quote:
People have to get over the idea that the problem with 'global warming' is hotter temperatures.
You're becoming like the neocons.
It's like the ambiguous war on "terror".
Now, after I have doubted how serious GW is for the last 5 years, I read that Earth's temps are going to stay the same for a decade, and the GW zealots are telling me, "the problem with global warming isn't warming."
Joined: Jan 02, 2008 Posts: 399 Location: out dispatching ronan...
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 8:45 am Post subject: Re: Next decade 'may see no global warming'
Cashmere wrote:
You're becoming like the neocons.
You misunderstood me Cashmere, though it's not your fault. I should have phrased mysef differently. What I intended to say was that people are often fixated on the 'higher' temperatures aspect of 'global warming', when what I believe will be the more devastating effect is 'climate change'. I.e. unpredictable weather, rather than predictably 'hot' weather.
Global Warming Vs. Climate Change in terms of semantics.
I've heard it said that politicians often use the term global warming, while scientists use the term climate change. The former, because 'warmth' doesn't sound like such a bad thing. The latter because depending on where you live, things may not literally get warmer - in fact, as many of us have heard, you may end up living in a ice age as a consequence of climate change.
I think the science of climate change is well established. My gripe is with the constant fixation on basic temperatures popular debate echos. I hope I've clarified myself
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 9:05 am Post subject: Re: Next decade 'may see no global warming'
Quote:
However, the effect of rising fossil fuel emissions will mean that warming will accelerate again after 2015 when natural trends in the oceans veer back towards warming, according to the computer model.
Quote:
The authors of the new study stress that they do not dispute the IPCC's figures. "Just to make things clear, we are not stating that anthropogenic [man-made] climate change won't be as bad as previously thought," said Mojib Latif, a professor at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Kiel, northern Germany.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 971 Location: "Mad as Hell !"
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 5:45 pm Post subject: Re: Next decade 'may see no global warming'
Cashmere wrote:
For figuring out what causes it, I think they're mostly groping around in the dark.
If not, then whey haven't we heard of this 10 year period of no warming before today?
Scientists have been aware of this phenomenon for sometime. Instruments have observed AMO cycles for the last 150 years.
Up until the recent report in Nature; the new models suggest it is about to switch from warm to cool.
Quote:
Can we predict the AMO?
We are not yet capable of predicting exactly when the AMO will switch, in any deterministic sense. Computer models, such as those that predict El Nino, are far from being able to do this. What is possible to do at present is to calculate the probability that a change in the AMO will occur within a given future time frame. Probabilistic projections of this kind may prove to be very useful for long-term planning in climate sensitive applications, such as water management.
_________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
Joined: Jan 02, 2008 Posts: 399 Location: out dispatching ronan...
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 7:06 pm Post subject: Re: Next decade 'may see no global warming'
Cashmere wrote:
Tell me, is it going to be warmer than usual this August? More or less rain?
The study of local weather systems (meteorology) differs from the study of long term climate (climatology).
Climatology
"Climatology is the study of climate, scientifically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of time..."
Meteorology
"Meteorology is the interdisciplinary scientific study of the atmosphere that focuses on weather processes and forecasting (in contrast with climatology)."
I recently took my grandmother to the pediatrician, and while I was in the waiting room, I picked up a 1991 copy of the national geographic magazine (published seventeen years ago!). It had an article about climate change in there that was comprehensive. It featured 95% of the current general scientific understanding of climate almost exactly as it's understood now. Included extensive diagrams, charts and estimations. The only this that differed where the details surrounding the last IPCC reports.
Sadly, people also understood this in the late seventies.
Interestingly, the american comedian George Carlin must have also read that national geographic article. A year later, he did his well-timed HBO special "The Planet is Fine" (transcript). It's well work watching if you want to update your weltanschauung.
Last edited by Hagakure_Leofman on Thu May 01, 2008 8:09 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Nov 08, 2005 Posts: 256 Location: The Maple State
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 7:52 pm Post subject: Re: Next decade 'may see no global warming'
10 years ~ length of the solar cycle that is supposed to start last fall but is late in coming. Well I thought solar cycle 24 was just going to be late, but it would appear the BBC is getting a cover meme ready for a potential missing solar cycle (such have been observed to follow long cycles-which cycle 23 was).
Missing of course only meaning peak solar output lower than expected.
Quote:
Thus, the start of SC24 is not to be expected prior to July 2008, and in all likelihood might even take place only in the first half of 2009. This conclusion matches perfectly the results one can make from evolution of the number of spotless days. Nonetheless, SC23 would be one of the longest in over 100 years, possibly even in over 160 years.
Projections of weak solar maxima for solar cycles 24 and 25 are correlated with the terrestrial climate response to solar cycles over the last three hundred years, derived from a review of the literature.
...Thejll and Lassen (2000) updated that paper and came to the conclusion that the
relationship between solar cycle length and temperature broke down after 1975, and
that anthropogenic warming is likely to be have beenresponsible for the departure.
In the search for a physical mechanism that could account for reported correlations between solar activity parameters and climate, the authors have investigated the global cloud cover observed by satellites. They find that the observed variation of 3-4% of the global cloud cover during the recent solar cycle is strongly correlated with the cosmic ray flux. This, in turn, is inversely correlated with the solar activity. The effect is larger at higher latitudes in agreement with the shielding effect of the Earth's magnetic field on high-energy charged particles. The observed systematic variation in cloud cover will have a significant effect on the incoming solar radiation and may, therefore, provide a possible explanation of the tropospheric and stratospheric 10-12 year oscillations which have been reported. The above relation between cosmic ray flux and cloud cover should also be of importance in an explanation of the correlation between solar cycle length and global temperature, that has been found.
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They welcomed it because it sounds like good news?
