Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 2:49 pm Post subject: Re: I want someone to answer a few things for me...
Here's what I wrote at another forum:
We are not running out of oil.
A.- true - we agree but thats NOT the problem. its cheap oil we're running out of. North Sea for one - didnt take long to run that one find down , did it?
There have been recent finds in North Dakota(3.5 + bln), Brazil (330 bln), and of course we still have Anwar.
A. this is actually not much oil compared to what we use as the world and Anwar is uproven - 5 years supply for all at best and not easy to get out = expensive
OPEC also has the capacity to bring more oil to the market.
A. - but chooses not to - or can't or maybe doesn't have capacity. who knows ? they're keeping mum , or maybe letting the cat out of the bag now.
We also have untapped resources in Colorado much like Canada has oil sand.
A. gah! its not oil but tar please! again not easy to get out = expensive - otherwise we would have exploited it already! and it does not come out of the ground fast either - see flow rates.
The current price of oil does not reflect the ?scarcity? of oil at all, rather oil prices have been propped up by a falling US dollar, which has allowed more investors from Europe and other investment houses to invest in oil and use it as a hedge, much like gold has been used in the past, against a falling dollar, and a cooling US economy.
A. please remember gold doesn't get burned so stays around . but, if true, hedge funds are short term so any effects will play out soon. but they haven't have they? no more $30 oil here or even $10 inflantion adjusted ?? Oil at the peak flow will dip and rise on the market but will end up higher overall. look at the data!
If you would take the time to look at the graphs, oil prices have retreated each day the US dollar has gotten stronger (losing over 2 dollars yesterday and 70 cents today), and visa versa.
A. Oil against a basket of currencies is higher than you would expect from plentifull supply , I conclued we have a shortage of oil from this. You may disagree - lets leave it at that.
As for your stance of another attack on US soil by Iran, I very much doubt that will happen, especially with a new president being elected this year.
A. I think you meant US attack Iran, others have pointed out the falsehood of the US GOP claims .
Your concern for food prices, while that is justified, I doubt that the US will succumb to massive food shortages, we will simply stop exporting food before we let our citizens starve. And as ethanol becomes less and less of a good idea, you?ll see corn start coming back into the food market; as for rice, that will have far more of an impact on Asian countries that it will have here in the US, and with better weather next year the food cost of rice will abate.
A. Maybe, ethanol from food crops was GW idea, the Chinese I beleive , banned it. Perhaps growing potatoes would help , you get 4 x the crop when compared with Wheat. Perhaps we can use potatoes to make ethanol ? actually it would not be a good idea at all we don't have the space or the gas to make fertilizer to make this worht while - see EROI posts for further details.
and , oh, welcome to Peak Oil. look at the data , not emotions, look at the facts and see that we need to do something now
A talking head on television this weekend was discussing the worldwide price of rice, and noted that its relationship to gold had changed little. Over the past several months, she said, the amount of rice that an ounce of gold would buy had not changed significantly.
This, of course, led The Barrel to check what had happened to the relationship between gold and oil these last few months. The numbers are sobering.
...The change since then has been remarkable, and it strongly undercuts the idea that the rise in the price of oil is simply a financial phenomenon. If gold is the ultimate storehouse of value and the currency of last resort, a commodity that is being driven primarily by currency factors should not be strengthening against that currency.
_________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6375 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 3:18 pm Post subject: Re: I want someone to answer a few things for me...
From the home page under What is Peak oil...
World discovery of oil peaked in the 1960s, and has declined since then. If the 40 year cycle seen in the US holds true for world oil production, that puts global peak oil production, right about now; after which oil becomes less available, and more expensive.
Everything else is just detail... _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 3:19 pm Post subject: Re: I want someone to answer a few things for me...
Divest.
1. If u want to prove peak oil as a myth, I think that you must prove that oil is a renewable resource. Do that please if you can.
2. You making account on "PeakOil.com" and saying up front peak oil is myth is like me (atheist) logging on a Christian forum and saying up front "your religion si bullshit". => we both lose our time, and other's time as well. The only notable difference would of course be , that I would saying the truth.
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 3:31 pm Post subject: Re: I want someone to answer a few things for me...
Divest wrote:
You people are hopeless!!
Only some. Let's not generalise.
Divest wrote:
Global demand for oil will abate as economies cool. The US has seen a year over year decrease in oil and gasoline demand, and as the US economy cools the European and Chinese export markets will also start to receede, thus reducing the overall demand.
I posted a prediction at the end of last year, anticipating a strong recessionary cooling of demand and oil prices this year. There are still 8 months to go, but it already appears likely that I was wrong on the timing at least. Although I warned against betting against sentiment and the common sense expected relationship between recession and energy, I have since learned not to count on them either.
Global demand will not uniformly decline anyway. There are cash-rich countries in the world which will continue to increase their energy consumption because they can, whether or not there is a recession in the US and Europe. The countries of the ME Gulf are a well-documented example. The construction boom over there is absolutely vast, with soaring power demand and resulting impact on net exports of oil and gas going forward. This is termed the "Export Land Effect" and is one reason why reports of available production capacity in that quarter are heavily discounted here. I do have a numerical prediction of my own floating about here concerning Kuwait, which I will publicly verify next year, whether it turns out to be correct or not.
There are also structural limits to oil demand decline, such as district heating in Russia, drought impact on hydropower in Australia and South America, cutting of gas exports from Argentina to Chile, nuclear power plant outages in Japan, Africa's (excluding South Africa) inability to run anything else for power generation, and so on. So economics can and do temporarily go out of the window where matters of national interest or emergency are concerned. This sort of thing forms a large part of day-to-day discussion in the Current Energy News forum.
Divest wrote:
It’s already started, most economists agree that the cost of oil ($112/b) has nothing to do with supply/demand economics.
Most economists do an even worse job of predicting oil prices than we do. We have kept track of the sucker-punching we have given them in that department over the last few years. As is often remarked here, when a group of anonymous internet people can beat the analysts, you can only adjust your respect accordingly. Therefore, think carefully before backing up your views with those of economists - it can actually weaken your argument.
Divest wrote:
I think you’re being over dramatic when you say "many people around the world will find themselves unable to buy the basic food and heating they require to sustain life." whom are you refering to? Europeans; doubt it because the euro is strong..$112 cost per barrel is like 60 euro to them, Chinese? nope, the chinese government subsudieses the cost of oil, Russians have their own internal supply..besides the poor nations, who will get help from the IMF and the world bank, there won’t be much.
The point repeatedly made here is there are many more poor than international aid can assist once the crap hits the fan. There are billions of poor in the world. They cannot hide behind the governments of China, India, Bangladesh, etc forever. State subsidies are not a magic bullet, they are not a sustainable solution. The fact that a country subsidises an individually unaffordable essential commodity does not automatically solve the problem. If it did, everyone would be doing it. And food aid is hard to distribute once a state fails. Even where it is distributed, what does it achieve but delay the inevitable correction of population to carrying capacity? The problem we see is this - we are having to feed today the children of those whom we fed last time. And next time, we will have to feed the children of those we feed now. This is a treadmill that only goes faster as the world population increases.
We have had the Green Revolution. I read an opinion piece in a British newspaper last weekend saying it is now time for a GM revolution, the time is right and the technology is ripe. And to this I said, "OK, and what then?"
We ask these questions.
Divest wrote:
(Stuff about Iran)
Don't assume everyone here expects an attack on Iran. There is no editorial policy to that effect here. What you have is a lot of people who keep saying it is going to happen any day now, and a lot of people who cannot be bothered arguing any more. Speaking for myself, I think it is not worth any keyboard time from me any more, along with the PPT and much else.
Divest wrote:
Try not to be over dramatic in the future, you’re no better then the media when you promote off the wall ideas that serve no propose other then to scare people; the so called "food shortage" here in the US..you can’t buy more then 80 lbs of rice / visit to sams club now? its hardly a crisis worth mentioning, 80lbs of rice is a lot of rice.
What is dramatic? There is a wide range of responses here, from arm-waving prophesy to dry academic discussion. You need to sample a lot more content here than it appears you have.
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 3:35 pm Post subject: Re: I want someone to answer a few things for me...
that's gotta hurt. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 4:00 pm Post subject: Re: I want someone to answer a few things for me...
I'm working on the posts you just posted, Twlight, but I just wanted to post this much really quickly:
emersonbiggins wrote:
A major tenet of your assertion is outright dubious. Oil is up versus all major currencies; it's run-up is merely exaggerated by the laggard USD.
Oil is priced in Dollars, world wide. Regardless of what country its bought and sold in, so any increase in the price of oil would automatically raise the price of oil in euros or pounds or rupees or yuan for that matter. When you look at the exchange rate, $1.54 dollars buys 1 euro, the Europeans are actually only paying 72.76E for their oil.
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 4:13 pm Post subject: Re: I want someone to answer a few things for me...
Some humor!
Quote:
"What'ya doin' with a pump, boy? Diggin' for oil? You're crazy, boy. There's no oil within 500 miles of here. Geology of the ground's all wrong. Even if there WAS oil you'd need a drill not a tire pump."
_________________ It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes.
Joined: Jul 04, 2005 Posts: 23 Location: Sacramento, CA
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 4:21 pm Post subject: Re: I want someone to answer a few things for me...
" I WANT SOMEONE TO ANSWER A FEW THINGS FOR ME"
" I WANT THIS. I WANT THAT. PAY ATTN TO ME RIGHT NOW . .. WAH WAH WAHHHHHH . . . "
hilarious troll! just some oil industry shill/intern paid to stir up reactions. or maybe some eco/poli sci major earning some beer money by jumping in here with his sharp stick to poke the bear in the cave. his sponsers want to gauge our reactions to help in future models & spin prep.
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 2615 Location: The Urban Village
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 4:23 pm Post subject: Re: I want someone to answer a few things for me...
AQIUS wrote:
" I WANT SOMEONE TO ANSWER A FEW THINGS FOR ME"
" I WANT THIS. I WANT THAT. PAY ATTN TO ME RIGHT NOW . .. WAH WAH WAHHHHHH . . . "
hilarious troll! just some oil industry shill/intern paid to stir up reactions. or maybe some eco/poli sci major earning some beer money by jumping in here with his sharp stick to poke the bear in the cave. his sponsers want to gauge our reactions to help in future models & spin prep.
so predictable. so hilarious. so transparent.
Now, now...
Like Obama with Rev Wright, some on this forum like to give the benefit of the doubt. And, then throw them under the bus!
Joined: Sep 19, 2007 Posts: 1090 Location: Land of the Tongva tribe
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 4:24 pm Post subject: Re: I want someone to answer a few things for me...
AQIUS wrote:
hilarious troll! just some oil industry shill/intern paid to stir up reactions.
Reactions for what???
joeltrout _________________ ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2405 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 4:26 pm Post subject: Re: I want someone to answer a few things for me...
Divest wrote:
The US has seen a year over year decrease in oil and gasoline demand,
EIA status report for the week ending April 25th states:
"Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.3
million barrels per day, up by 0.4 percent from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand has averaged about 4.3 million barrels per day over the
last four weeks, up 0.7 percent from the same period last year."
Still no demand destruction according to this set of data.
And there is this to peruse concerning demand.....
All times are GMT - 6 Hours Goto page Previous1, 2, 3, 4Next
Page 2 of 4
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
. but, if true, hedge funds are short term so any effects will play out soon. but they haven't have they? no more $30 oil here or even $10 inflantion adjusted ?? Oil at the peak flow will dip and rise on the market but will end up higher overall. look at the data!
